Member Info for Sneakysnake

Scinceday1
In my view, without this buyer,we could be back at 6 P in the recent market downdraft, so the seller is being absorbed.
The problem is,we have a billion shares outstanding so there will always be sellers of varying sizes .
The point really is that someone is accumulating opportunistically...you see Tue,a bad day in the market and this buyer ups his game and buys some decent size.
I wouldn't turn my nose up at this buyer,he has been around for a while and when news flow improves and hopefully the buyer is still about,we will see then their worth.

WW,Democrat senator Chris Murphy saying Russian assets of Putin and top oligarchs will not only be frozen but also seized going further than Putin et Al might have anticipated so if viktors assets are seized,then he is out of the equation,am I correct?

Rob,there's a lot of stars aligning for the Beetaloo if we can get the gas flowing.Shell have highlighted again that they expect lng demand to almost double over the next 20 years.Add in a new big player in an origin farm down and the next 12 months may be landmark.
The Russian situation highlights the importance of energy security also.... Europe have their a.se hanging out the window on energy security.
Let's hope the fracking team are brushing up on their skills in the off season

Ss

LNG exports risk going ‘from hero to zero’ according to Angela McDonald Smith of afr quoting an energy quest study, based on current gas reserves in Australia.
There is clear concern that unless further reserves are unlocked,the LNG industry will decline rapidly over the next few decades.
We might be arriving on the scene in the nick of time
The article is subscription only.
Gla

Must be the glasses I'm wearing, everything gone green!

All
I expected a bit more excitement around the recent Santos news on their horizontal frack regards the falcon share price.
That said,I suppose there has been 55 million shares of an overhang with Mr mathys and petrohunter so near term demand may have been satisfied!
We need really decent flow rates from TBN to bring in some new bigger fish that will drive this higher and in here for the next year or so.A lot of the recent day trading seems to have disappeared for the moment, next time we go up,let's hope it sticks!

All
I see China back signing 20 year supply contracts for LNG with the USA.
I know it was a point of dispute in the trump era trade dispute but the Chinese know the importance of energy security and the fact there is no energy transition,accelerated or otherwise, without LNG.
The pressure to get shut of coal will pressure LNG markets even further in the coming years and the last year has shown everyone that fossil fuels,like it or not are not going anywhere soon...we need to get in gear and get this stuff flowing asap because the market is there.
Atb

All
I see two directors buying shares October 19th.Not huge amounts but then again it's probably pretty illiquid.
The second horizontal is now likely done and fracking should be starting soon.
The price action here is about as frustrating as it gets although one would hope we get some traction over the next month or so with tbn making serious progress

Ss

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/signals-point-to-solid-ground-prosperity-as-offshore-drilling-takes-a-dip/news-story/207bcf23ab59659292153025c85264b4
Dan levy ex Pangea resources so he has local knowledge....empires holding technically not like ours or Tamborans so empire will have an uphill battle if his assessment is near the mark

You gotta be impressed with the way this share price is acting.
It dropped over 40%post IPO and has recovered in full, largely since our Amungee news in early September.
The issue of a farmout mentioned the other day by a poster...we need positive news from tamboran without doubt and a program next year that allows a declaration of commerciality by end 2022.
I had a read of the Deloitte document prepared for the government last year.
There's a lot in it but a flow rate of 5to 6mmscf was mentioned as a key component of a commercial development for dry gas going forward.
Poq mentioned a figure of 3mmscf from an independent consultant.
Based on the vertical frack,the expectation is likely similar to our Amungee figure from September.
Strong flow rates will set the share price alight and hopefully,we hold this time.The constant up and down share price is very annoying

Likely they did.The average was obviously the leftovers and the spend to explore and appraise was likely tens of millions which,as newtofo states, might be better spent nextdoor at some point, hopefully!

Thanks newtofo.
This investment is clearly taking its toll on my memory,it's going on so long....I have obviously mixed it up with some other transaction along the way.
Apologies for the mix up

Newtofo
Am I correct that INPEX paid 100 million for the acerage we handed back some years ago now?
If that's so and you think what they might have to spend on acerage that's on the peripheral areas of the core Beetaloo,it would be much smarter to buy proven acerage from us down the road I would suggest,with a large company like origin as partner and maybe another partner with vested interests in Darwin or the east coast.
Stand to be corrected on the 100 mil though
Ss

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/santos-looks-to-critical-half-after-record-2019-20200122-p53tk9

Sorry, thought the first post was lost and re typed

Schlemiel
In another article by AMD,Jan 22 2020,while discussing the financial performance of Santos,Kevin Gallagher was asked about tanumburi 1.The vertical frack flow rate of 1.2million cubic feet per day was the steady rate achieved.
The article said sources suggested that as a rule of thumb, horizontal flow rates of up to 10 times the vertical flow rates could be achieved.
In other words 12 million cubic feet per day.
While Mr Gallagher didn't want to discuss further, he did say that results to date(Jan 2020)were well within acceptable criteria.
That is the next huge catalyst ,not forgetting of course the kyalla and velkerri wet currently working.
Ss

Schlemiel
In another article in Afr Jan 2020 ,Kevin Gallagher,ceo Santos discussing financial performance,referenced the vertical tanumburi I.
Flow rates of 1.2mmscf were achieved for the vertical.
The article referenced sources within the industry who used a rule of thumb that horizontal flow rates of about 10 times the vertical could be achieved.
That would be over 10 mmscf .
While Mr Gallagher wasn't to be drawn on the outcome,he stated that results to date(Jan 2020) were well within acceptable criteria.
If we get anything near those rates from Santos later this year.....that would be a serious step towards commercialization also.
Ss

Well worth a read,82 pages but highlights the problem facing Australia re gas and LNG shortages.
Beetaloo solves this problem down the road.

JF
The initial farmout deal with origin was a master stroke.
I expect the same when this asset is to be soLD.Thats his brief....he readily acknowledge he is not a geologist but a deal maker.
Regards origin,they are spending millions in the Beetaloo.I suspect any newsflow to be scrutinized and of a sound basis.To suggest any porous statement s would be released is not one I would buy into.After all,as we well know,org don't have an awful lot to say at any time,good or bad so what is said,I would sit up and listen to and Fri statement wasn't Poq getting out of bed Friday morning with a brainwave to spike the share price...I am happy to listen to the experts on the ground at the amungee well site.
Time will tell but I am very excited about the eventual outcome and lots of credit due to Philip.
Atb

JF
To be fair to schlemiel,I think he means that Poq wouldn't release the RNS without origins blessings.

On a separate note,there is nothing on the web re Friday's news ,in the Australian press.
I suspect org will keep things low key to a point given the recent trouble empire have had with the press and the government grants.
Personally,I hope some credible buyer takes the bankruptcy overhang out...it's dogged this share for over 2 yrs now or maybe the trustees step back and trickle out some to cover the expenses until the overhang is taken out.
Re the share price,we will have plenty of catalysts now unlike 2016 when the moratorium stopped this in its tracks.
I am not a fool that's only wants to hear good news but echo one poster already,beware the nasayers.If many lth's had listened,we would be well gone from here.There is a future and it's up to speculation how big.Personally,I won't be selling any of my substantial holding but will add a few as we travel the next 18/24 months.I had 90%of what I wanted to own,had my order in some weeks back and pulled it, awaiting some good news.The news from Fri was
definitely a positive surprise and the market loves it,as we all do by the looks of things.
We are on our way back to all time highs or near I suspect but I don't care to speculate on a time frame.
This was touted as a billion dollar company once,I wouldn't care to bet against that now although there is more work to be done and now,the Santos flow tests take on an even greater significance that they might have had a week ago.
Hopefully we get a velkerri dry pencilled in for 2022.A kyalla or velkerri wet gas success would nail the billion mark and more.
Interesting and exciting times ahead and this time 2yrs,I hope to be celebrating a well deserved victory!