Member Info for SneakySimon

if you read the redacted contract, we can use any unutilised element of the 1m govt machine - I am pretty sure it isn't just sat their gathering dust ;-)

lets not hold our breath, they were testing the Mologic test 6 months ago!

in fairness, he said no placing needed - ie they have the money in the bank and

He did say that if an opportunity arose that needed ££££, a placing would be a possibility (I am massively oversimplifiying what he said)

Personally, if there is a good deal to be had and placing is needed to fund it, then so be it.

Agreed - the govt contracts seem to have Omega like a rabbit in the headlights - hopefully once announced the comms will improve as they can deal in facts rather than having to be guarded about all details......

wasn’t their some Condor programme that AVCT were meant to be involved in?

Aagreed, I suspect the tests will be Mologic, AVCT and Surescreen - this may change over the months but to begin with, it will be those three hence the manufacturing support

I thought it had already was at Porton Down based on the newspaper report and RNS on the back of the report (22nd Feb) - that at least alluded to the fact that the test was at Porton Down.

I get Paul’s logic, but on the flipside
- the tweets they put out influence the SP yet are often not backed up with official RNS’ed news
- last couple of days, I have seen a few confused / deramping comments around the 18% margin - I have not seen an eager tweet from Walbrook to clarify

Seems they have quite selective appproach to news management

Monday mornings generally have a dip - the ‘tesla tweet’ while on its own not massively damaging, will I am
sure put some people off - you invest money with a company on one hand who ramp on Twitter but then cut down anything they see as ramping by others and then have pish poor RNS’s. The business is great - the comms far less so.

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W18/750256532

Looks like Surescreen (I assume as I don't know any other Derby LFT makers) got some of the money from that 'Upscale Project Accelerator" pot (£1m) - presumably to increase capacity?

My belief is that the Innova tests will continue to be used on mass for schools etc - PHE published that it was 82% accurate so ticks that box for the govt for schools / offices.

The quality LFT's Mologic / Surescreen / AVCT will be used for more specific use - airport travel, hospitals etc. Maybe longer term the volume will increase but shorter term, will be limited.

As an ODX holder, I think I can say most ODX holders are a little weary of the rampy tweets (followed usually by director sells and or a dour RNS!)

I think its a bit more this time - papers are reporting news tmw on travel and suggestion that LFT news may also be given.

Not holding my breath, but surprised at the rise and the fact we are keeping the rise.....

My take was that AVCT had a good test but seemed to be struggling to deliver it within timeframe, thus you had reource input from ODX and Mologic (and the CE mark ofcourse).

I 100% believe Q3 / Q4 their will be a combined AVCT / Mologic test - I also believe that this will also show if you have flu and / or covid (Mologic are working with Glasgow uni, converting a Lamp test into an LFT).

This would make more sense - what happens though in the short term is anyone's guess - ODX is looking pretty healthy move today so suggests Mologic as A test, AVCT though potentially to follow when you get the CE mark...........

That's possible - that guy who works for ODX updated his LinkedIN (and quickly changed it!) that he was supporting AVCT with testing. Personally, I don't think that was a sign of the AVCT test being transferred, I think it was literally support to AVCT.

The TT from Mologic to us took maybe 3 months (it was a bit wooley on when it started and ended!)

I think two reasons

1. The experience with the UKRTC and the ABC-19 which due to the GOVT mishandling of the procurement /
2. ODX's communication is prettty poor - tweets (Walbrook) are very rampy, the RNS's are very matter of fact and almost deramping
3. The contract announcement was truly awaful - it emphasised twice that it was for a minimum of £50m and while it was for £374m, it could be a lot less - basically, ODX deramped it. From that point, the SP dropped like a stone

oh, and the £5 prediction was from a muppet ODX holder who then sold anyway at mid nineties - most would predict a max of £2 to £2.50 but as per AVCT, its all about contracts now we have the products.......

PL - the contract is £374m. Yes, the machinery is govt by that costs only 1-2m (the govt also gave Mologic / GAD £11m ish). £374m for 1m tests per week for a month = 52m tests per annum. That's about £7.19 per test (I am sure it will be closer to £5 but this is quick calculation). Its estimated we will make about £1.50 per test, so conservative profit of £78m. That is half our capacity LFT wise.

Since we already have TT'ed the Mologic test if that is the one (and I don't believe that it will be one sovereign test) then we can start making 1m per week immediately. If it is the AVCT test, then TT will need to occur and that can take 2-3 months. The contract is a draw down so we are not losing money, but better to be earning the money sooner rather than later - I am sure as vaccines continue to reduce cases around the world, the demand will be smaller for testing.

"Spot on Craig - given the bulk of their volume will come from the govt using govt equipment, chances are they'll only make pennies per test. How much does a swipe of pritt stick cost?"

Sisu - to be honest, I don't have an idea of where this term 'soverign test came from - I suspect their will be at least two. This may change in the future (a test with covid and flu is being developed by Mologic at the moment - that would be big I think).

The challenge as I see it is that Mologic ticks a lot of boxes politically - GAD is a not for profit spin out from Mologic. It has lots of donations - Bill Gates foundation for one. They do lots of support for developing countries - it will look good politically to select Mologic as a test.

It will rise - I have a large core holding, but I also took a smaller chunk in the low 70's to trade with - I sold that smaller chunk this morning as I am sure others have done similarly .

The rise looks strong and we will have big FOMO later I suspect so don't worry, we are headed in the right direction.......

So based on the news your 'very well informed mate' told you, I am inclined to take that with a pinch of salt - been investing for 20 years and if I had a £1 for each time I heard something like this, then I would be very rich!

But thanks for making the effort.

Before the pile on - a large investor on Twitter called it and said it was because the guy needed some money......

Wasn't Kamani the person who sold the £2m a couple of months ago?