Member Info for Snaffleman

How have they managed to pay down 40 million dollars in debt if they have minimal net free cash flow.. Until they publish the cash position we are guessing.

Whilst the 50000 seller keeps offloading we are going nowhere. I am hoping these are the overhang shares that were discussed last week.

Surely it must be a possibility that Savannah Energy is one of the best potential recovery plays on aim in recent years. If the share even recovers to 37p that would be a 5 bagger from here. I aim to recover my losses and more. However I do recognise that emotions do need to be managed. I was so mad when I exited SDX that I swore I would never buy back in under any circumstances because I understood why the market punished the sp following blatant lies. The stakes here are too big for AK to remain in charge if his leadership is deemed unacceptable by the intis he must be skating on thin ice now.

After the positive but poorly received operational update I would be interested to hear folks Hope's and expectations in respect of the final Results. Clearly we are all hoping that they will contain some good news that provides positive momentum. Surely the cash position must be reasonable healthy if we have paid down 40 million dollars of debt.

Goldman Sachs bullish position on oil is backed up with their purchase of tullow shares.

I think oil prices will be hugely better by the end of the year. I also believe that a lit of informed parties know this including the Saudis and Russians.

My thoughts:
1. Market sentiment to o&g stocks was diabolical even before covid.
2. Oil price collapse has made a bad situation worse
3. Covid uncertainty generally makes people risk averse.
4. SAVP recent failure to get Niger to production in advertised timescale which Zengas re gently expressed frustration with.
5 The time it took to complete the Seven energy deal
6. The market does not like the 500 million dollar debt levels
7. Loss of confidence in management lack of transparency and trust.
8. Lots of less risky oil ang gas stocks at historic lows
9. Recent history of problems in Nigeria generally a d these fears compounded by covid.

Probably a combination of all of the above. Maybe all of this smoke is hiding the fact that SAVE will be a highly profit, high growth energy company that pays decent dividends within a couple of years. As Jim Bowen used to say that's the gamble

Today's reaction to the ops update and CPR is perverse. Decent cash flow, increased production and 40 million debt paid off. Although they did not publish cash position it cannot be that bad or surely they would not have paid down so much debt.

Paul good summary. I agree about the payment arrears but I suspect historically that arrears are par for the course but I guess that as a result of Covid the market will worry about payment arrears getting worse than normal . I suspect that the market will not rerate us until the results are published which show the overall cash position, debt, cash burn etc. You would have thought that they would have got some credit for paying down 40 million debt but I guess that there are too many unknowns for the market at this point. I understand the situation better than I did and will continue to hold.

The risk sections of investment cases always make horrific reading you need to consider the risks in the context of the bigger picture.

Swindon I do not wish to be picky but GKP got to £4 albeit briefly. I read about 1 guy whose ho,ding was worth over 800,000 and he held all the way down until his holding was only worth a coup.e of grand. Some of the instils held most of the way down their presence does not always save you

From the acquisition report page 28:
Seven energy had a substantial backlog of unpaid invoices from state owned power stations after 2016 industry liquidity collapse before federal government intervention
Question 1. Is the 65 million dollars the total of historic accrued debt to date or just for the reported period. Where the historic monies owed to seven energy ever paid before the seven energy deal was complete.
Question 2. Looks like this 65 million dollar debt is the usual suspects not paying eg Calabar GSA why is this a surprise. Looks like it is just a continuation of the same behaviour seven where experiencing from 2016

From the Risks List
Accugas historically experienced payment delays in respect of Calabar NIPP and IBOM
Sounds like anyone expecting to get paid on time is living in a fantasy land and that was before you through the impacts of the virus. In fairness they do state that force majeure could be used by contracted parties as a result of the virus but we all hope that does not happen. Maybe as long as you get paid you have to manage late payments as to be expected.

Q3. What is SAVE mitigation for managing these risks and I certainly have been enlightened by reading sections of the report.
I understand we now have the world bank partial guarantee but I think it is naive to state that the directors will pursue every Avenue before invoking the guarantee. Looks to me that unless the fg pays this money the guarantee will be invoked and that will not be well received
The 65 million should have been included in the RNS. I can only assume that AK has not done so nor published the cash position as he does not want to put the sp under further pressure. He has a moral and legal duty of care to be transparent
On the face of it I was happy with the fcf in the rns but now I have dug deeper I am considering my position I thought that the market cap is ridiculous with an SP of 8p in view of the assets .The recovery potential here is huge but the risks are high although you might consider that at 8p the assumed bad news is already priced in.

Kalan if I had followed your advice my losses would have been reduced if not eliminated. Your use of charting has been pivotal here in term s of understanding market sentiment and selling high and buying back in lower I was intendingto follow your lead this year but got caught in the crash I was lazy and paid the price but I am planning a comeback. I wish you and your family and grandchildren good health and prosperity and I can tell you that I appreciate all of your contributions and have learned from you which is so rare in these forums. All the best to you and your family. My oldest daughter is a nurse in gastro but we are are all fine but me and my Mrs are high risk but the gea dson is fine which is my main concern.

It looks that way to me

I am currently buying back in to some stocks I sold but dont feel inclined to buy back in to jubilee . Having held through thick and thin for 6 years I sold at the beginning of the crash at a loss. The reality for me was that despite all of the achievements with DCM , Hernic, etc my investment decision to hold jubilee for 6 years was a bad one. It was not just the pandemic we all remember the low 2s a year or so ago. All of the achievements never resulted in a positive result from an investment point of view. It occurred to me that Leon's decision never to buy any shares has served him very well over a dozen or so years so why change a tried and tested approach. I have been a major supporter although I have voiced criticism. Of course I understand that many will cons that there has never been a better time to buy jlp but I held that view for most of the 6 years for no gain. I thought I would be back but see better value elsewhere now

Swindon's I am not happy with comms and view the strategy to hide this due payment as pointless and self defeating the final published audited accounts will show all. However overall I am very pleased with the RNS and cash inflow none of my major fears crystalised. Overall I am happy with the news but the perceived attempt to deceive leaves a very bad taste in my mouth. Trust in AK was shot to hell before this news hence the SP being where it is. I am certainly not appalled and see infinitely more positives than negatives in terms of the risk of buying SAVE at 8p. I note that none on the institutional investors are appalled as none have sold any. Sounds to me that SAVE is not worth investing in for you and believe me I respect your opinion as my record with aim o&g stocks is not good. Life is a risk and at 8p SAVE is worth the gamble for me at this point

I am looking to buy in for the first time. Just waiting for a dip. I cancelled my limit order at 0.35 but am about to place another at 0.4 and hoping I get in at that price.

In the oil sector I am tempted to buy reabold and rockrose to spread risk but I am tempted to really take a punt in this one and buy more. I think that it is the market that is missing something hers not the posters on this board. They will not ignore the money forever

Trek I noted that Goldman Sachs have bought a stake in tullow after tullow sold assets to pay off debt. So they are buying oil in line with their advice. Reaction to the SAVE RNS has been very poor reflecting sentiment I hope that there is an overhang to clear and we will see progress over the coming months.

Added another 75000 this morning I have now bought back my original holding for 80% of what I sold for

I cancelled my limit order at 7.5p and bought the same amount at 8p. In my opinion the assets here are very good and I believe that in time the Saudis Russians and US will engineer a recovery in the oil price and in time the pandemic will wane and a new normality will emerge. If AK does not keep the instis happy he will eventually get the boot . The thing that makes the gamble worth it to me is the assets and the scope for growth. At this price I recon that downside here will be limited if the markets take another dive. Plus Goldman Sachs buying tullow and putting out a bullish note on oil also helped me press the buy key.