Member Info for Snaffleman

I bought in today just gutted that I huffed and puffed and hesitated below 1000.00. I did my research again and in the end it was an easy decision to spread risk and buy here.

I reduced this morning by 33%. I was too exposed on SAVE and could not afford the hit if the results are not well received which everyone seems to agree is a realistic possibility. Long term I am far more confident but it is always a bad ideato put too many eggs in one basket.
It is good news for everyone else though me selling is normally followed by a tripling of the sp in a day or so

I assume that the 40 Million dollars debt paid down was an accelerated pay down compared the rate at which we are required to service the debt. This is an important point because if the cash position is that precarious why reduce your cash position unnecessarily. The market was not impressed and there was zero effect on sp.

On the the positive Niger cpr, well the market was not interested. Does it make any sense to attribute zero value to these assets. Clearly the market does not believe that the finds to date can be monetised. I guess that until SAVE can present a plan for Niger and demonstrate how it will be funded there will be no value added in respect of those assets. Could our Niger assets be sold in the current market. I am not suggesting we should sell them but I would be interested to hear others view on realistic current value

Paul it encourages me that despite your clear and detailed understanding of the risks that you felt the risk reward ratio was acceptable and bought last week. The reason that I mentioned that the guarantee is partial is that after I read the seven energy report I still did not understand to what extent it is partial clearly it must cover a percentage of unpaid money not the full amount.

The operational update on May 1st was very positive in tone highlighting that for fy2019 cash flow was $168 million with $96 million coming in since SAVE completed the seven energy deal. They also reported a 34% increase in gas sales despite covid. It was pointed out on this forum that $65 million cash due remained uncollected and it was not well received that whilst this was in the report it was not highlighted in the update. Some voiced worries about the fact that current cash position and unseen costs of restructuring the business that AK had referred to.

If there was even the slightest chance we are not a going concern the SAVE had a legally binding duty of care to warn the market if there is the slightest chance that is the case. If it turns out to be the case the may 1st operational and financial update us one of the most disgracefull derelictions of duty ever on the cesspit that is aim. Surly insists would have bailed already.
The problem here is the lack of information on current cash position and transparency and current cash burn.

It is not often that I am picky but the reference to this is seldom correct it is a Partial guarante.

Ianpb I though you were out I am glad to hear you are still in.

This could go back up to the high 20s as quickly as it came down. I am a pessimist and a cynic but even I believe that is a true statement. On all my time over the last few years I have never seen anyone challenge in detail Zengas analysis of the value and potential of the assets here. The market does not challenge anything it drops market cap below 50% of cash without fear or favour there are examples I gave previously mentioned. Big recovery plays in oil and gas and just maybe SAVE is amongst the best gambles at the moment. There are many other good bets as discussed over the last week or so. Zengas said SAVE is a conviction gamble for him personally and I see it the same way.

This is by far my biggest holding at the moment and yes having lost money in the way down I am nervous as hell but have a instinct that things are going to improve soon. Life is a gamble here is to better times

Just a thought maybe AIIM might up their stake in accugas and we could use the cash to announce a funded drilling programme in Niger. Let's hope AK can pull some kind of rabbit out of the hat. All would be forgiven pretty quickly.

Looks like the guy who lights the rocket fuse is having a fag.

Interzone I do not believe based on what we have been told and in the absence of any TR1s that there is any significant Insti selling. That however does not always save you. There was no Insti selling when SDX fell from 50p ish to 20p. I also remember that during the GKP decline from 4.50 to 0.01 that many instis held all the way down. I believe it is a mistake to believe that all is well based on lack Instis selling. What has been significant here and with many other o&g players the diabolical market sentiment which is slowly changing as others move north. I hope our time will come

One final point I remember when I held sdx the sp fell very significantly despite endless good news and never moved north nobody on the billboard could work out why. Not unsimilar to here atm. The reason eventually became clear. The CEO Paul Welsh had been on every platform available malky, vox etc lying through his teeth that they were on schedule for an increase to 8000 bpd and all was well in the world. When the results were eventually published the reality was just under 4000 bpd. It became clear that the boys in the city knew all along but us PIs were fed lies via the usual suspects.
I think AK believes he is caught between a rock and a hard place. The perceived lack of transparency is killing us and we need to establish trust. How much worse can it get. Munchbox thinks 4p and if I was to say 6p is there any real difference looking at the bigger picture.

Munchbox I personally feel your possible 30 million valuation is a bit on the pessimistic side. Then again if you had speculated 7.5p from 28p a year or so ago I would have thought you were being perverse so what do I know. I lost a lot of money in that drop.

We did receive 44 million from aim for 20% of accugas and uqqo. That would mean the rest of the assets less debt would valued at minus 14 million . It would appear that traditional methods for the market to assign value to o&g companies are out of the window they now seem to make it up as they see fit. Look at Rockrose at one point trading at half cash and it is a sound well run company. Or the difference between union Jack and reabold based on assets. One is either overvalued or the other undervalued. Doing research and investing in fundamentals seems to be no longer effe cive at the moment.

How long is Oil and Gas Authority approval expected to take. Surely they will be looking to hold and sell post WN drilling at a premium compared to pre drilling sp

This is only going one way I am telling ye down down and down again. Your are all ddoooooommmed I am telling ye doomed.

Actually gutted I never got in earlier I had a kill or fill at 0.35 and it never got filled. Chanced my arm and lost . Still think 0.6 u I'd still a good price particularly after the rns.

Your only worry is if I buy it is the kiss of death

For me personally I have crystalised a big loss at 10.1p I have read the acquisition report risks which are a sobering read. I have read the report. I am treating SAVE as a new investment at 8p in view of the risks and potential upside as they stand today. In retrospect I should have paid more attention to market sentiment in oil and gas prior to covid. The charts showed that virtually everyone in the oil and gas sector was being hammered. Look at Red rock market cap half of cash. I think SAVE and a few others have the potential to recover. 38p is now a five bagger here. I am trying to avoid letting anger cloud my judgement but cant do it with SDX as I am still spitting blood about P Welch lies he should be in jail. Sometimes it is better to walk away and never look back. I agree with others that the market does not understand the size of the prize here. Just my opinion

Note the time of my last post. No work for me tomorrow now entering my third monthh with no income etc. I can survive another month but savings are gone but I can recover as long as I can get back to work in June. Any longer the business and house will be in big trouble. Many are in same position. Hoping I can keep my Savvanahh shares now without having to sell through necessity . I am lucky compared to many here is to those that have lost loved ones. My daughter is an NHS nurse I am proud of her and all of her colleagues. Here is to better times

So why are you not loading up then like your mate?

A musical quote for those buying now from my favourite band the proclaimers

I am moving now from misery to happiness today.

God whom aI dont believe exists owes us here. I am determined to exercise my God given right to be an athiest. Plus if he wants me to believe in his existence why did he make me an athiest and tell me to kill gay people. I believe in gay rights but I must be honest I would rather French kiss my neighbours German shepherd than a Male person. Honestly I support gay people and gay rights. Ricky Gervais once said good luck to you just be safe and keep it legal. His recent series after life is well worth watching. Particularly as my doctor told me I have seen the future and you are not in it. Sorry for off topic but it might give you a taste of the sick maniac who sometimes posts here

I do not recall anyone providing detailed informed criticism of Zengas detailed breakdown of the assets in support of his 2 pound target price. AIIM have just paid approximately 44 million pounds for 20% of accugas and uquo field giving a pro rata value of approx 220 million for those assets alone ignoring all of the other Seven Energy Assets and Niger.

They had no problem with the last raise at 28p and as far as I am aware no significant institutional selling.

Huge market lack of trust mainly because of lack of progress in Niger and time it took to complete Seven energy deal. There is the 450 million debt of course bu we have already paid down 40 million. Add terrible sentiment in the sector followed by the covid 19 disaster and what you get is 7.5p.

I crystalised a significant loss on the way down and sold at 10.1p. I am looking as new investment based on the price today in the context of the risks as I understand them. I now own 50% more than I did previously

I agree about salary reductions but dont expect to see it happen

AIIM paid approximately £46 million for those assets. The current market cap is £70 million so only £24 million for all of the other Nigerian assets plus Niger once debt is paid down (in excess of 400 million).