Member Info for Snaffleman

That's me all out. After 6 years of continual holding I can no longer tolerate the significant risk of things getting even worse. We have got an idiot in the whitehouse who apparently used pandemic emergency money to help build the wall .Wish I had followed kalans advice far earlier but have been consumed by the disastrous effects of new tax legislation which is forcing me to close my Ltd company after 22 years. Looks like my daughters wedding abroad might have to be cancelled and it has all been paid for. Oh well at least the grandson is healthy and happy

In my experience on aim is that good news travels very fast. On the other hand when companies hold back information or delay announcements the results are rarely good. Like many I am feeling angry at myself and pretty depressed about the situation but I accept that the responsibility is mine and mine alone.

That is completely understandable. I would personally have waited until the results at the end of the month

Paul Curtis I always appreciate your views please keep positing

Bluebelly broker notes were typically predicting 89p after closure of the 7E deal but market sentiment and coronavirus impact has led to the current position. I also sold other shares to top up here but stupidly did so at 21p thinking it was close to the bottom and that the Niger update was imminent. If we see 45p this year I will be very happy

Maybe the instis have engaged third parties to drive the price lower so they could buy at lower prices. I am just guessing.
I topped up at least 3 times around 21p and am still holding long. My major concern is more long term market sentiment and o&g prices. I understand that there are tankers full of gas docked with no Customers in the middle east due to over supply and it is costing money for the tankers be docked. Our market is largely internal in Nigeria so that mitigates the risk to some degree I hope.

Retired Banker your AVATAR sounds like what people call me but mine has a W instead of an B.

I sincerely hope that you get your 50% and more besides. I may have to sell soon I have been knackered by the governments new IR35 legislation. What can you do? I had been hoping that Jubilee would have delivered growth far earlier and sadly dilutions have prevented that from happening but I remain convinced that this year should provide good upside

I suppose that is not unexpected with the dreadful sentiment in the Sector.

In my opinion LB should have been shown the door a long time ago

That's the figure I have always understood. That means that we only have 63 % of ZERO value rather than 100%- sorry for the bad joke so early in the day

My best hope would be that Anglo might resurrect the proposed $5 million for Quartzhill the deal that they took off the table a which Leon said Jubilee did not want to do any more

I did when I started but not now. How could a benevolent creator watch what happens on aim and stand back and do nothing

I accepted when I invested that Tjate would never have any realisable value during my lifetime.
Now I am six years in I tend to think it might not have any value during Gods lifetime.
Only joking I don't believe in God

they have seldom gone to plan in the last six years its the norm in o&g to a large extent

Why we are where we are
1. Diabolical sentiment in the sector nobody interested in oil.
2. Missed deadlines- no news on Niger CPR or Debt restructuring
3. AK not trusted on timescales after 7E delays and lack of drilling progress in Niger
4. Recent delays on promises post 7E deal completion
5. Worries over debt levels
6. Market wants to see delivery of projected cash flow and profits
7. Possibly an Insti is continuing to sell.
8. Market doubts ability to monetise Niger finds and ability to secure a partner

I am heavily invested but don't see much downside from here but quick upside if we can confirm FCF, get better debt deal and announce Niger CPR drilling plans and a partner

CPRs do have an effect if they are bad. Just not the other way if they are good

Olly after my chariot losses I moved on from clutching at straws and got more serious exercise swimming in a sea of self loathing

Someone selling in moderately large chunks. I sincerely hope they regret after the next update

Kalan and others I would appreciate your thoughts on a question I struggled to answer fully and my response did not convince my colleague. He is convinced o&g stock should be avoided at all costs

Q Are you out of your mind investing in an aim o&g stock at a time when the market has no interest whatsoever in o&g stocks which is a position that is unliklely to change for a very long time .Are you aware of the increased momentum towards electric cars and the relentless pressure on oil prices. It is hard enough to make money in o&g stocks on aim at the best of times but to try and prosper against the huge negative momentum is totally reckless.
My response was that I accept it is currently a contrarian bet . However the SAVP is hedged against oil in Nigeria where it has a huge a growing gas business. Also once the market confirms the huge incoming cash flows post the 7e deal we should see good upside and accelerated pay down of debt. Also the scope for gaining significant new customers in Nigeria underpins the potential for significant growth this year and beyond.
Also the position in Niger is perverse in that Niger is being valued as zero by the market despite 5 successful wells and CNPC building a multi-million dollar oil pipeline which SAVP hope to utilise. It would appear that the market considers that Niger finds cannot be monetised. SAVP believe it can and the value of the Niger business is very significant.
In summary despite the malaise in the Sector has created a situation where SAVP Mcap is far too low and once the cash and debt position bcomes clear we should see a significant rerate.New customers in Nigeria and a partner in Niger could trigger that rerate.
Can anyone add any further perspective?

Same here Bluebelly I chose Jubilee over SLP and EUA.
My horse selections also tend to be put down after a fall at the first hurdle

We should be entitled to know is this is a result of the $5 mill being settled in shares and the shares being sold