Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Slot pricing per AI:

Known Benchmark Transactions

The most cited public data point for Gatwick is a 2013 deal where Flybe sold all 25 of its daily slot pairs to easyJet for £20 million, implying a per-slot-pair value of roughly £800,000 (~$1 million) at the time. This gives a useful market benchmark, though individual slot values vary significantly based on:[centreforaviation]

• Time of day — early morning and early evening slots command the highest premiums at LGW[iba]

• Season — summer slots at Gatwick are worth considerably more than winter slots, a difference more pronounced at LGW than at LHR[iba]

• Frequency — a daily (7-days-a-week) slot pair is worth substantially more than a once-weekly pair

EasyJet’s holdings in LGW alone:

It’s important to distinguish between individual slots and slot pairs here, as the public data from easyJet is typically reported in total slot counts rather than slot pairs per season.

easyJet’s Gatwick Slot Holdings

easyJet is the dominant carrier at Gatwick, holding close to half of all LGW slots. The airline applied for approximately 90,000 slots for Summer 2024, which equates to roughly 45,000 slot pairs for a single summer season. After returning 3,000 leased slots to British Airways (reducing from 81 to 78 aircraft worth of flying), easyJet still retained over 90,000 slots in total at LGW.

The biggest asset they have is the order book and non-P&W Airbus fleet. I hold a lot of Airbus and the order book there is struggling to deliver this year. I suspect that Airbus may be looking to Lessor firms to fill their book gap?

Again question I have - will the UK government allow easyjet to be asset stripped from a competitions perspective? IAG also set to benefit here if this goes through, particularly from a competitions perspective.

Don’t forget that we have 10-15 days worth of buys MINIMUM listed in short positions. 6% of the circulation is short. They are now utterly screwed as are going to HAVE to buy back in an illiquid market. Throw in an Iran peace deal and this is GOING TO THE FRIKKIN MOON MONDAY.

Fair market value calculation would need to include:

brand value

Slot portfolio

Aircraft

Holidays business

Spares

Potential for MRO breakout

Net cash holdings

I can’t come up with much less than 8-10 billion.

Current market cap is under 3 billion. This is why I’ve said for 2

Months on here Easy is getting snapped up and have been averaging down through the crisis. Last week, I did my first ever 100k Stirling profit (briefly, before the Auto trades pushed the price back down).

I wasn’t expecting private equity, but it makes perfect sense. There was a similar rumour post-Covid that took the price up to over 1050p. So fully expecting to double bag this. If the sale goes through, it could be a triple bagger.

Commercial office space

Whether it is, or isn’t a rumour. Blackfock are on clink to the tune of circa 20 million in shorts. That could very quickly turn into 40 million by Monday afternoon.

Do I think this is going to happen? Unlikely. Competitions commission would block any aggressive takeover for asset strip. That doesn’t help institutions holding 5.8% of the value in the company short sold and now facing massive losses as a result of the mammoth bounce we are going to see Monday.

15 days worth of shorts to close. lol. monday gonna be mega. i’ve got 250k dry powder extra to put in to make black**** pay for my retirement.

So this LLC we’re looking to buy Spirit. They let them go broke. Reason - easy doesn’t have any Pratt engines jets. They are the ones with BIG problems. Shorthaul market globally is really constrained for metal. EasyJet at a fair market value of 5-6 billion can offer jets, slots, brand and holidays, plus Intellectual property.

This is turning out hopefully to be the retirement trade of a lifetime. I’m in here for over 560k and have been accumulating since 1 march.

Rumour that a private equity outfit and a lessor is looking at an aggressive takeover of easyJet. Mindful of their massive non-Pratt engined fleet, ridiculously low market cap, brand, business and motherload of wonga in the bank, I can see this to be true. I’ve filled my boots. It’s over 20% of my pot, so perhaps wishful thinking.

But, here is the thing. if competitions allows this to go through, it has massively positive ramifications for IAG. Slots. Reduced competition in the London centre, at a time ATC capacity in the London area is due to grow by 5% a year for the next 10 years. The secondary and tertiary effects for IAG are strategic. Obviously this is all based off a rumour, but looking at level 2, some whacky stuff and limit orders were triggered today. EZY Aftermarket orders were utterly bizarre.

Just out drinking some LP overlooking the city. I’ll see what Easy’s ADR did after market close once I’m home on Level 2

the last trade before close was 411.

**** time to be sat on open short positions, hey black rock!

So there were a LOAD of limits that were hit JUST after close…

My guess is, algos bought the rumour. Sad losers with limit orders in triggered at 398/399 (level 2 seems to show this) pushing about 2-3 million quids worth of sell orders

If the rumour is true, and IF Trump seals the deal, AND the sorrts close first thing, it’s going to be an explosive open.

Well, at close and my first ever tonne done in a week!

If Easy is looking at takeover, and I’ve mentioned that on here before, we could easily be looking at a double bag scenario.

Hope the guys with the shorts managed to close before the bell! 😬

Congress wont permit anything other than military action for immediate self-defence, or the defence of an ally. He isnt going to get congressional support and the senate have voted that Congress have to approve any substantial military offensive activity.

That it doesnt cover the UAE is a bonus for UK longhaul air travel. It takes out a major competitor hub from the equation. Brutal, but its a benefit imho to IAG as uncertainty in the region means scaredy cat tourists wont go near the place for a while yet

Not taking profits here...Golden hands on this one. The Vampire Squid has never represented anyone's interests other than their own. This may fall. Long term though its a conviction buy for me looking at between 44-65% up in the next few months. Fair value on this, brand, slots, aircraft, net cash holding and the new holidays business is 6-7 billion at least - The fact its trading below 3 billion market cap is all you need to know. GS will be looking for rotation trades out of silly overpriced microchips and meme AI stonks. I have a sense the US market is over-inflated and the big investors are now looking to the next pivot out.

Blackrock have some minerals - they upped their short position on the 27th 🤣

Handy little dip to do a 5% pot top up. This is my diamond hands FOMO stonk for at least 12 months.

Shorts still sat above 5%…. Down from 6.6% hopefully will provide some decent buying volume once they start to BURN!!!

One other factor that is going to help here- it’s likely that EasyJet are going to be promoted back into the 100 in the next quarter. They are only around 200-300 million off the lowest cap’s company in the 100. This will force a large number of pension funds to adjust their holdings. More upward price momentum, at the same time as a short squeeze.

It’s roughly 15 days solid buying if they take short interest from 5.9% to 0%. That’s a lot of shares