Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Looks like a LOT of shorts getting closed today. II also bagging up loads of shares it seems on the cheap. 2% up at the mo from 2% down

Just need MSFT to recover now...!

Obama gave them billions. Trump is about to give them over 300 billion back that will be funded indirectly by the USA in state aid and tariff reductions through the GCC states.

Alas, trump has gone and opened his Gob again. Market, particularly airlines, responding from comments.

Sorry, I’m a northern monkey myself so can legitimately use the phrase “that northern upstart lot” legitimately.

They are respected in the industry. I love what they have done and their vertical integrated model and bold moves into challenging areas are to be respected.

The owner has an unhealthy obsession with Jess Glynne though.

If there is a hint that J2 are sniffing at this, IAG are going to be on it like a tramp on chips, either blocking through regulatory, or a counter offer. They will not allow further encroachment of that northern lot (AIM listed too) in the south east.

I can’t see a breakup passing muster with eu/uk competitions, nor can I see airlines paying top dollar at this stage of the cycle, particularly with Iran starting to kick off again. I’m still Holding here and think it will get resolved but was hoping for a full and firm out of CastleLake by now. It’s frustrating they are electing to manage through the regulatory side first.

I think I just need to close IG nd set 2 price alerts. One for 510p and another for 670p and just stick this out! Waiting minute by minute for another month isn’t good for one’s health!

Bencasa, £3100? Those are rookie numbers. Im down 9k today and its not even a particularly volatile day dude.

Im not sure cutting MSFT based on this chartist garbage without a macro or fundamentals picture would have netted me £25k in the last week mind. Can I share Laura's number on OnlyFans?

The attack in the Straits today on 2x tankers has probably weighed a little. There are also sustained concerns about how quickly Persian gulf "On water" crude can get to aviation fuel refineries globally... I think the US SPR is getting very very low... https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/ We are still at only 50% of pre-attack throughflow.

Todays price is roughly worth £1150p in pre-2x RI territory

Im sad too. Im even sadder that I got bored in 2022-23 and sold a load of stock that massively bagged and trusted Aviva with my moolah; Id have triple bagged Rolls. I also got massively found out in Covid as I didnt understand how punitive not taking rights up in IAG would be to my asset value. but then again, id been made redundant and was slightly wibble at the time (first time ever unemployed). Its all a learning experience!

I think $MU is overpriced, retail pumped junk thats going to burn a lot of Wendy's workers that FOMO'd their 500 dollar salaries hoping to be the next Warren Buffett. Volume is looking increasingly thin and the "Trump Pump" was a death mark for me. Im already ported into $MSFT, $INTU and a smaller holding into $AMZN. Im more interested in the developing story with enterprise AI over the next decade, instead of 2 quarters of short memory chip and Tensor supply (which is increasingly being produced in-house). $INTEL there too. I hold NVDA as a longer term punt but only a small number and will look to average down with every 10% further drop with profit from Ezy... How MSFT is down below $400 a share I dont know.. from a multiples perspective, its the lowest its been in decades and the latest monthly price drop exceeded that in the dot com bust.

Yep, but since then, lets be honest, the company haven't been doing great, have they?

I only bottom pick Bloody red baron. I cant help but scratch that itch.

No smelly fingers yet, albeit my trading account for IAG and EZY since trump tariffs and iran is showing a healthy 90% gain on year...

Im currently a Microsoft man and wouldnt touch $MU with a rusty barge pole...

Im struggling to see why Retail shareholders are taking umberage at the figure offered by Castlelake. Current (as of now) P/E is around 6.44; with CastleLake's offer that goes up to 7.4. By comparison, IAG, a group currently printing cash, have a P/E of 7.04. I think people are consistently forgetting the dilution of Share price that happened post-covid and are looking a gift horse in the mouth here. If you adjust 690p for the dilution, you get a pre-RI Share Price of £11.50; this is not far off all time highs.

Hate to point it out, buying shares at an ATH price is a good way to lose a lot of wonga.

No I don’t. I think it’s unlikely. But, as we approach a share price closer to 690, the risk vs reward balance tilts significantly and any risk arbitrage pricing means its becomes increasingly a sell. The potential upside vs downside alone means Even a small risk will have a fairly big impact on price.

My only concern at present is CastleLake adjusting the offer at the last minute in light of the quarterly results on 27th July. If Iran and fuel prices have weighted heavily and perhaps have resulted in structural damage to leisure and holidays travel forward bookings, we could see a change to the bid. the market is on tenterhooks here and think as we saw last week, the institutions would play merry hell with the price action.

Yup. Still in here and actually added yesterday through the day. I’ll start to sell out as we get through 651p upwards but I’m looking for at least another 5% here before slicing down again.

Ref. Shorts, many of them are an arb position on a net long institutional holding rather than a straight short. If I were deep underwater here in a short, I’d probably be weighing up the risk of a no deal digging me out, vs a known loss of 690p.

The shorts have been unwinding steadily though. Just not as quickly as I’d have expected. Institutions it seems have a lot more patience than retail!

Schwee, if you dont see this as Stelios does - an opportunity to clean out the Board he has been banging his head against a brick wall for a decade with, together with an opportunity to offload a massive aircraft order again he took umbrage at - you need to re-appraise. Stelios I think is supportive here.

Lots of RI selling out after a meteoric rise and have decided for them, personally another 6% rise to 650-660p is too much of a risk when considering the slight risk of "no deal"; im sat in the other camp and think this has a way to run over the next week and certainly once traders get their bloomy terminal open with there yaba matta latte will be closing down short positions. We have seen massive volume this morning - as I type, 7.5 million shares traded in 75 minutes - that volume would be massive for a normal trading day, never mind that short period.

Key levels forming at 619.00, 624-626, 629. Id be interested to see if the momentum continues today and tomorrow to smash thorough these. I see us closing up around 11-13% today with more gains through the week and once the latest RNS is digested by the market.