Member Info for smiffyBlok85

This looks like it has been coming together for a while. The other adviser has big holdings in easyJet and is the former CEO of a very Leisure airline in the USA - SunCountry (was there for 9 years). Recent interview on 9 May. In the interview, he details a merger with another outfit. Looks like Castlelake have got a guy win easyJet C Suite knowledge of the money as well as a guy with a detailed eye on the charter and holidays business, backed up with the CastleLake Finance team and money from MSC and possibly, as of yet, undisclosed others....

This isnt a mickey mouse bid like the last few, IMHO. Jude talks about the shortage of metal in the marketplace... I wonder if this alliance would be one of the lease partners of CastleLake? from the QnA:

So, the idea that Allegiant is really just acquiring pilots and planes—is that correct?

We have three assets Allegiant can’t create organically. We have 72 airplanes. You can’t go buy that fleet in today’s market. It’s worth a lot more than it is on our books. We have a large presence in MSP that’s been well-defended, our market share has doubled since I’ve been here. Third thing is the cargo business. You can’t go into Amazon and say I want a cargo business. We’re the top performing airline in the industry by margin, which adds to [Allegiants’s] P&L. I think it makes a ton of sense.

Also on SAS's board... so intimately linked to CastleLake it seems...

Do you want to stay in the industry, or are you thinking you could become a health care executive like Richard Anderson did as a palate cleanser between Northwest and Delta?

[Laughs.] I think it’s difficult for CEOs to transition industries. I love airlines. I love that we deliver a product that people love and does good for society. I’m joining Allegiant’s board, I’m on [SAS’s] board. We’ll see.

https://tcbmag.com/qa-sun-countrys-outgoing-ceo-jude-bricker/

RNS 11th June.... The CastleLake disclosure has an Easter Egg in it...

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EZJ/opening-position-disclosure-8211-castlelake-lp-x3h13nobqeh7rbm.html

[2] Peter Bellew is acting as an adviser to Castlelake, L.P. in connection with its possible offer for easyJet plc.

Anyone recognise that name?

Looks like the old proverb "Buy the rumour, sell the news" finally came around. A lot of investors have had at least 39 false trumpian hopes of a rapid conclusion to this fiasco - looks as if we finally got there (although the Iranians are talking now of tolling the Strait). All fun and games and I love the volatility for a cheeky (stressful) tradey day.

So, UT at 500p exactly - no change in price. No coincidence I suspect.

As I mentioned before, there are 3.3 million quids worth of sells sat with a single investor at 504p (643,350 shares) in 15 tranches of 42890 shares in L2. This I guess will cap any significant rises this week, until the market can fill those orders. That constitutes pretty much 7% of all trades today and is pretty hefty.

Some big buys went through after close - one for 198k shares, another at 59,000 shares and a final one at 76700 shares.

be keen to see whats been going on today in RNS once the filings come in.

Either they are driving their (significant) net long position up, looking for an offramp prior to bid expiry, or they are planning to hold their long position and hopefully make a killing on any bid that is made.

I expect that any bid will not be made without initial coordination with the Board/Head office...?

Some evidence today that there has been selling pressure. the ratio of Long to short orders was around 1:3 to 1:4 today. Not sure if this is profit taking, but fortunately the RNS will at least give a daily commentary on institutional holdings of easyJet

If they dont bid, understand from UK acquisitions, they are then locked out for a period of 6 months. Meaning that someone else could come in and snap it up.

Its a bit like that Ferrari in the showroom coming in you always wanted. Its expensive but its taken a massive haircut on sale price due to it being a bit unloved, but nothing that cant be fixed.

Blackrock closed another 600k shorts per their RNS today.

Im expecting some shenanigans from institutions this week. My case:

Castlelake are not amateurs at this.

They wont be the only ones with an interest here.

With the history of takeover attempts, they will be going into this competitively.

I suspect that MSC has had a bite of the pie already here and went out to market to find an expert airline aquisition firm to both advise and joint in the business.

Not sure what the relationship is like between the family owners of MSC and Stellios's family shipping outfit but I suspect this will have as much to do with an offer as the price.

If they miss the bid they are locked out for 6 months. They wont want to risk this as another firm could step up with the readies.

Mental model therefore - Offer north of 650, maybe as high as 850. Guessing this will happen by close on Friday.

Hoping to be down the pub on Friday by open to celebrate.

There is also a monster institutional Whale Sell order in at 504.00 for 626,000 shares the market cant push past at the moment. Looks like profit taking. Bid/Ask ratio currently sat on 1:4

Entry price here will be below 490 with chunks to add with any 2% change in SP up or down.

Savage, I dont disagree with your view Savage, Its just 10-15 years too early. There is a lot of wealth being handed down to the children of the boomers, in the form of school fees, paid family holidays, luxury watches etc (in fact anything that HMRC cant track), as otherwise HMRC are going to take a lot of it. when they are dead and gone, there may well be consumer issues. That day isnt now (and far from it).

Check out the RNS from today:

Turiya Advisors Asia Limited have taken a >2% position in easyJet since 1 June... They are piling in here.

If Friday is anything to go by, we should see a pickup around 15:00-15:30.

Everyone note, its QUAD Witching this Friday... Could lead to a pullback as there will be a lot of Options heavily in the money from the past 2 months.

Dont disagree - State pensioners should be weath tested. Giving 12k in benefits a year to someone in a 1.5 million pound house is insane. Its not about cost Prospero, its about incentivization of hard work and success, and also not promoting reverse evolution in the population through the likes of unrestricted child benefits.

Savage, benefits claimants can go to UK Pontins. They shouldnt be hopping on expensive overseas flights with their Crotch goblins using my taxes anyway.

There will be no more tax rises. There will be a GE within the next 12 months and what will happen is feckless benefits claimants are going to have to work if they want to eat.

Keyboard warrior - and you really are - If you had filled your boots when I said I did (with 175k worth of shares) you'd now be sat on a 52% gain. Give it up. you lost this one.

Will recover PM. Level 2 currently showing a LOT of high vol orders in around the 507-509 level. Very little sell volume below 515p. Currently 511.2p at 08:12

So Investor1981, one thing ive learned with Easy - Most of the Institutional short holders are actually net Long (and typically at a ratio of 3 long per short share). The only reason I can think of is it enables them to provide a "stabiliser" to the SP on big red candle days... Bit naughty but it certainly seems to have been the case. the regulatory notifications have been VERY interesting from a market insight perspective. I guess the short exit for the door MAY indicate that institutions are looking to squeeze the SP up to price out CastleLake, who are taking the P*ss tbh I expect with their offer and who see easy as an underpriced LTH for their ETF/Portfolio makeup.

On bookings, its P*ssing it down outside here. People (particularly South East) will book short notice and know they will be paying a kings ransom for the privilege post ME.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN....! START YOUR ENGINES!

Feels like Christmas morning waiting for the living room door be opened.

LETS RIP THIS!