Member Info for smiffyBlok85

The rate at which IAG are reducing Bond debt, liquidity certainly isn't an issue (made 10k on the IAG pump to 410p, sold then bought back at 370).

I suspect there will be others. Critically, if the plan is a break up and feast off the dead corpse of easyjet like a hound of jackals (holidays, brand, slots, aircraft, order book, parts, infrastructure, IP) , this could work for all... Each company gets the key part they need (MSC will be after a certain capacity level, some slots and probably holidays business and possibly brand) Wizz/IAG/Lufty/Air France Slots and aircraft, CastleLake aircraft for leasing and order book.

Threats for me include a block by national governments/the EU and in-fighting between bidders as to who gets the prime rib and who gets the gizzards. This is EXACTLY what CastleLake are ninja at. This isnt a take over. This is a buyout before stun gun and butchery imho. And that deserves a SP of over 8 quid a share.

It’s either going to go up or it’s going to go down.

FWIW, possible IAG could become a co-bidder for a slice of the pie, as I dont think the current structure of the company will survive a take-over. It could also defuse a few political issues too? Have to wait and see. All vv exciting. IAG, but could be Wizz too as they have bid in here before.

Thanks Thumps. Yep, been up and down here but have been heavily adding on dips post-Iran. Prime time takeover target (I posted this on the IAG forum about 2 months ago but alas many missed the boat)

650p would do for me. I wanted this as a bag hands hold for 5 years. Average is 350p off the last dip. I’ll be looking to re-invest in Microsoft once the tech correction in the USA is done and add easy. Be interested to see if this fails, if another party comes in and goes in higher. I guess will need a shareholder vote, or is this managed by the board? Or is it limited to institutional holders only?

One way out of this for bag holding institutions that are about to have 30-50% upside. Buy long and push the SP out of the acquisition price range. This is going to get volatile as we approach the close date on 26th June. A good day trade Opppo imho.

Posted that IAG are key contenders here and wil

Be set to benefit from any UK/EU easy breakup last Monday. My biggest pot holding has been easyJet for over a month now; IAG will become my largest once the outcome of this deal is established

Easyjet's ADR now trading at 6.34% intraday.

Excellent analysis crossley! Didn’t spot this, but it’s nice to know we have circa 500k buys out of an average volume of 14,000,000 daily buy/sell trades helping prop up at worst, ballon the price at best! Looks like Blackrock are hedging their bets. As they approach zero short cover, I’ll be watching like a hawk to make sure there are no significant non-macroeconomic related closes.

Uncrossing trade closed this at 470.1. Not sure what google is smoking. US ADR ESYJY currently trading at 4.87% up...

Going to be a good day as long as the orange one doesn't spoil this. Wonder if we are seeing capitulation from the close of shorts..

One thing ive realised. Most the short holders are also significantly in long positions, typically at around 3:1 ratio for blackrock. If they start to close their shorts here, its going to cause huge rises in their long values. Starting to realise how rigged this game is if you are an institutional investor! Short trades here it seems are more about generating support on poor days and preserving the much larger long position... And once there is a run on shorts, closing down, spiking the price.Not sure what the trading rules are here - are different trading desks in the same company allowed to converse and coordinate trades? or is that seen as market Manipulation? Blackrock seems to be doing a great job of providing price support here with very small relative closes in Short position.... typically 0.02-0.05% closes, but creating volume and boosting the price?

CastleLake looking at MSC Shipping/cruises as the potential partner according to news. This was the company that were rumoured last winter to be looking to get in.

Interesting if this is true… may also get other airline companies into the mix which could well result in a bit of a competition to get a slice of the orange pie.

Blackrock reduced another 450,000 shorts again. Looks like they are slowly getting out.

I’m trunk and balls deep and I’m not selling a share. I’m here for 4-5 years unless I get to double bag and will look to reduce at that point. All this bid does is get me there quicker.

Up she goes.

More upside for meif it goes through than downside if it doesn’t. Personally think 60/40 in favour of a buyout so from a purely probabilistic perspective here, I’m (very) long.

Even if easy are bought out, this is not going to be a quick process. This will take most of summer for this deal to be confirmed. The next step will be for castle to make an offer with other parties. I personally think the chance of that remains above 50% with fundamentals and their background in aquisition.

More AI insight.below average trading on normal markets, but over DOUBLE the average including dark pool and derivatives trades:

On-book volume of ~7.2 million was slightly below Yahoo Finance’s reported average of ~7.5 million. Against Investing.com’s broader average of ~13.8 million (which captures all trading venues including dark pools and off-exchange), total market volume of ~32 million was actually well above that figure — though Investing.com’s average appears to be from an older data set at a time when EZJ traded at significantly higher prices (~540-590p range).[finance.yahoo +1]

Context

The key driver today was the Castlelake possible offer situation, with the stock closing at 465.30p, down 2.49% on the day. Despite the takeover speculation dominating the news flow, on-book volume was relatively muted — suggesting the market may be in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the 26 June deadline for Castlelake to either firm up its bid or walk away. The spike in total market volume (32m across all venues) relative to on-book (7.2m) hints at significant activity in off-exchange, dark pool, and derivatives-related hedging flows — consistent with the volume of Form 8.5 EPT/RI filings seen today from the likes of BNPP Financial Markets.

Interesting to see Blackrock reduced its short position (it seems) by around 750,000 shares. From perplexity ai:

So BlackRock remains materially net long easyJet at 4.04% long vs. 1.04% short. Cross-referencing short tracker data, BlackRock Financial Management’s disclosed short had previously been reported at 0.61% as of 27 May, though the Form 8.3 captures the broader consolidated BlackRock Group position at 1.04%, which has now been trimmed from a higher level. The overall market short interest in easyJet currently stands at around 5.50–5.63% across all disclosed short sellers.

The net effect was a reduction of ~759,185 shares on the short side (777,735 reduced minus 18,550 increased).

They did so at a price of roughly 4.65 a share. Possibly one of the largest short position changes since the announcement last week?

Gaz, sadly just the end of day uncrossing trade.

Well done all you Long bag holders today. It’s obvious from

The final bell and uptick at the end that the filthy shorters were out shaking the tree today . They will not have their day and despite their best efforts, we recovered nicely.

Onwards and upwards and here is to fingers crossed that Trump gets impeached sometime soon!

Stump, suspect this was a leak that wasn’t supposed to happen. The original source was a rumour on X from a known regulator financial markets commentator. The risk of not releasing anything would have been a very significant increase in SP, probably greater than what has happened thusfar