Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Tankering will help, but only if the EU do away with RefuelEU policy in the short term. Also, no way to gas up in Spain if there is zero supply in the UK. You could mitigate a shortage somewhat, but you wouldnt be able to remove all refuelling in the UK by most of the routes flown

Spending more on benefits than you take in income tax isnt the Labour party's fault? Profound statement that one. Why arent all other EU nations suffering similarly? Not investing and permitting North Sea oil and gas development sits firmly at their door. As does giving lots of tax payers money to lazy people with hordes of council house crotch goblins in tow. State benefits effectively fund reverse evolution of a population.

"Something is Off".

The market cannot see a way out. That doesnt mean that there isnt a way out; indeed, there will need to be a way out as continued lack of clarity is about to cause a major crash, that the Republicans cannot afford in Mid-Term year. I am hoping that we will see a change of POTUS as a result of this by the end of the year; hopefully on ill health grounds.

Grok's take:

Key Reasons for the Drop

The main trigger was a £228 million "single name" impairment charge in the Investment Bank, widely linked to the bank's exposure to the collapsed UK specialist mortgage/bridging lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS) earlier in 2026.

This contributed to a 5% year-on-year decline in Investment Bank pre-tax profit (to £1.62 billion), even as revenues grew 4% to over £4 billion (a quarterly record, helped by trading volatility and fees).

Investors focused on this as a potential "canary in the coal mine" for broader credit risks, asset-backed lending concerns, or risk management issues in a higher-rate/geopolitical environment (e.g., lingering effects from the US-Iran conflict earlier in the year).

Other factors included:

Some metrics slightly missing consensus (e.g., Return on Tangible Equity at 13.5% vs. ~13.7% expected; certain profit/buyback expectations).

Ongoing caution around UK consumer credit (marginal rise in delinquencies, though described as small/containable) and macro headwinds like sterling strength impacting US operations.

Profit-taking or high expectations: The stock had already recovered from a sharp 2026 sell-off (down ~29% at one point due to geopolitical fears) and was up strongly over 1-2 years, so any perceived weakness was punished.

This is what drove the last rise in share price in 2023…. Takeover speculation. More than just the slots, the current market cap is well below the cost of their aircraft alone, especially considering the current net cash position of the company. This crisis is going to set about some significant market consolidation.

Https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/summer-british-airways-strike-fears-37062481 was a bit panicked by this so spoke to a friend on this earlier today.

Can confirm this is complete and utter Bolleaux. The only pilots moaning are overpaid Long haul first officers that think they should be paid more than Shorthaul Captains (according to a mate who is a BA Nigel).... They are effectively making SH command more attractive and the pipe/slippers longhaul holiday wallahs are getting told if they want more money, they need to take on more responsibility. Absolutely ZERO chance of Industrial action...

"Sund if you see this can you please text me on the number you have for me, but please not between 7-9 because that's when I'll be cooking dinner for my wife and her boyfriend. Pesto pasta, yum yum."

Very Childish Sund. But have to admit, made me chortle.

Iranians are going to hold the USA’s feet to the fire here. I’m expecting a janky couple of days. This hopefully is the last week of this nonsense without resolution.

The Iranian voice is actually two voices. The moderate political element and the extremeist IRGC element. Trump will not be willing to tolerate this past the 28th April, when the Presidential mandate ends for offensive action in Iran. He knows that he will have control taken away; the position that needs to be established is a deal that is unveiled on a bad news day 3-6 months down the line, with enough optically for both the US and Iran to claim a win.

Ill be adding on any mass sell-off monday

If this isnt fixed by open Monday, ill be adding again. Market is a coiled spring. The sensible money is getting in, there will be intraday dips but the trend is going 1 way. I think the market has seen this thing is a bad thing in the short term for IAG, but long term its going to benefit them with the market consolidation we will see.

Pilot shortages - couple of ACMI and other outfits with experienced flight crew will wind up as a result of no Hedge strategy. DYOR as to which ones. This will in the long term lead to more consolidation across the industry, reduced supply and higher margins as Easy can up prices. Short term this is Pish, long term it will benefit the big carriers in the industry.

We are close to a deal. This is final death-kicks of this charade; both sides are jostling for final position. Trump has until 28 April and Congress will be finishing this. He knows this is possibly the last point to sign a deal; the consequences of not signing off and getting the straits re-opened will be catastrophic. There will be wins for both sides for optics, then 3-6 months from now once we are worrying about something else, another deal will be revealed.

We are the vinegar strokes to share price victory. I’m expecting Trump to be silenced and Vance to edge this over the line to recovery romance explosions.

Looks like a deal is close with Iran. The Lebanon deal will have been a prelude to the Iranians agreeing to speak. Let’s keep our fingers crossed the straits can re-open unrestricted very soon….

4-5 week lead on getting oil tanked to the EU though, so it’s going to get Janky for a month or so

Struggling to see with the Operating margin from 2025 how you have come to this conclusion - the Op margin is well above even the likes of IAG.

From a simple value analysis perspective, the share price is undervalued. If easyJet were to liquidate its aircraft, cash holdings and slots, the net return would be almost double the current market cap. You then need to throw in branding and ancillliary business functions including their growing holidays business. Agree that Iran is going to not be fantastic for this summer, particularly fuel price, but realise also that geopolitical pressures will move more revenue into the EU marketplace from abroad. From a technical perspective, we are now trading at a lower share price than that during the low of Covid.

Either way this is a LTH for me, happy for this to dip 10-20% and average down (albeit I’m invested at around 24% pot total at present). Have another 15% left over to continue average down with a good overall average price here. Solid business and brand that’s wide open to post-Iran consolidation,

Btw, there are a LOT of smaller UK airlines that are struggling due to a lack of solid hedge strategy so I’m expecting quite a bit of consolidation on route networks more generally. IAG is my other big holding where I’m anticipating 500p in the next 12-18 months.

Us will only accept 60 day extension if they allow the southern passage to be used through the straits and a guarantee that the Red Sea will similarly be not disrupted. The market globally has priced in rapid resolution here. The Iranians can ask, they will only get if disruption to Middle Eastern services is protected. Ironically, this could play out for Easy. Middle Eastern carriers won’t be operating as regularly from Dubai and Doha, meaning that there will be many more catching codeshare flights off the back of western longhaul destinations around the globe. emirates bust be being hammered by this.

What the US market has forgotten is that US longhaul aircraft can’t fill up with US oil when parked in a nation that has run out of Jet fuel.

I seriously think this is getting bought out. Said this for a while now. Market cap is well below just the asset value of owned aircraft and net cash holdings. And will allow for reviewed industrial terms and broader head office efficiencies.

Once the word spreads, there will be an instant close of around 6-7% short positions.

Very much a clearing the decks trading update I think. Onwards and upwards for later this year. Mindful of the uncertainty, I’m still very positive.