Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Sadly, I see a USN warship getting sunk here as the next step.

Shorts could well be an Arbitrage/counter trade position rather than a single trade designed to benefit from the drop in SP.

The “in the know” may well just be that Easy has fallen out of the FTSE100 and typically struggle somewhat in the first quarter in the 250. I’ve bought in for the longer term and see this being back in the 100 by Summer 2027

WTI Op has crashed below 94. You may get a quarter or two out of this, BP SP is dropping 20% back down to 500

Congrats all. That was painful, but those with titanium knackers prevailed. I heavily invested here - I honestly believe this is the start of a solid recovery for easyJet, particularly as people will be looking to travel less to the ME for a while now. Also, fuel prices will be elevated, making shorthaul more attractive than Longhaul.

Sunz, pass the Krug a the caviar me old!

Just woke up 80k richer thanks to TACO Tuesday! 🤣

Will forever be known as TACO Tuesday.

Why do vegetarians buy shares in a meat manufacturer?

WTF just happened? Closed shorts? I was BANKING on banking in on Tues with my new SIPP and ISA allowance! I need that big fat orange thicko to keep the fear going til at least the new Financial year!!!

F@ck. it. I hope Trump can keep the price action down until I can get my money into SIPP and ISA on 6 April. I’d kinda welcome him invading Kargh island at this point, as long as he winds it up on his stated timelines.

I think we will see over 550p by the end of the year, notwithstanding a UK recession.

my take on this. enough barrels are passing through the red sea and the fujarah terminal for “non-friendly” nations of iran to live off relatively unhindered. that’s 7.5-8m bbd. the friendlier nations, the ones iran will allow passage through the straits, india, malasia, bangladesh, ****stan and other asian nations who consume the bulk of gulf oil, will be allowed passage.

there will be temporary/mid term disruption - strategic reserves need replenishing and there is no certainty over how long it will take gulf nations to return to full capacity - albeit their storage is now full.

lng, lpg ans helium will be the biggest exports that will be disrupted. there hasn’t been a full assessment on the impacts to qatari supply.

the big long term question is how welcome the usa will be after the dust settles here, together with whether the irgc regime can continue on in its current form. both have geopolitical outcomes that could weigh or boost markets in the long term

To be fair, they also turned the goat shagger in chief into pink mist on day one and have schwacked three tiers of senior leadership. The IRGC I think is currently being led by the cleaner. I think regime change will happen. It will take 12-18 months. I don’t think the old Shah’s son is coming back. He is a bit of a chancer. I hope that Persia once again becomes free and is able to self-determine its way forward away from the Ummah and former regality with a sense of self importance.

The President and foreign minister are both impressive minds and I genuinely wish them the very best in governing their way out of the mess they have been left with.

Fully on-side btw with a recovery up to 600p in the next 18 months. Particularly as people will be looking to holiday closer to home, the growth of EasyJet holidays and opening of airspace reducing delays and Improving route efficiency.

I’m holding Easy as the bulk of my pot at the moment. And I’ll be honest, the main reason being is that easy is a takeover target. Even if that is only rumoured and nothing materialises, we will see solid recovery of this equity. Look at the market Cap against historic values. This share is significantly undervalued

Airlines not allowed to tanker for economic reasons per RefuelEU policy currently. Could argue if

No supply this is operational. However, it’s not really possible to tanker round trip inbound and for the subsequent outbound due to performance or structural

limits. Tankering has its place, but also has significant limitations. If the EU run out, pretty much everyone will run out at the same point.

Tbh, it gives airlines the ability to declare force majure and chop out the non-profitable or loss-leading routes their network analysis. If it gets really spicy, will result in freezes to the 80/20 slots rule, which again airlines will be able to use to minimise losses

Managed to secure an average of 365 here and 362 with EZY. Got some TUI (€6.95 ave).

We just need to ensure the fuel supply to our aircraft is secured now - otherwise it’s going to be a tough post-easter.

No gotta do what you gotta do my old. I think though that in 2 years, these will be well up.. I guess it’s difficult to see when will be good to get back on.

It’s correct to be wary, the orange trumpian one is speaking again tonight at 9 pm EST. Could well be announcing an invasion (although doubt it!) I’ve got 30% of pot left to go in which will provide some respite if I need to average down.

The majority of jet fuel is shipped in to the UK as product. It’s not refined in the UK. Most of our refineries are configured to produce petrol, not jet fuel. The main outlets are Nigeria, the Gulf, the US and Russia. On the last one, we can only do so much. We cannot collapse our own economy for Ukraine; it’s now necessary to end Russian sanctions until this is over. We don’t have to use Russian oil, but the lack of supply across Europe is going to cause big problems an mean there is more competition for aviation fuel across Europe.

TSA are getting paid again. Think it will have an impact, not sure how big (certainly not as big as United who are currently up 7%) . Tech stonks are doing well too...

There are alternative sources from Saudi's western (red sea) ports - albeit at 7 M Bpd, Nigeria and the USA.

We can just swallow our pride and buy some from Russia instead of ridiculously hamstringing ourselves over virtue signaling on Ukraine. Ukraine wont be paying the tax bills any time soon.

Milliband has a lot to answer for here.