Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Yep agree. 320 as I’ve said is my next buy-in point. What was good about yesterday was it demonstrated there is a load of liquidity sat around waiting to snap up bargains.

This either ends quickly (congress will call time on this at day 60 worst case and gives Baron Harkennen an excuse ). The question is what is the exit strategy and getting the spice, sorry I mean oil flowing again.

The other option is therefore it drags on. Painful but to win this I think you have to be averaged down. The recovery will be very quick, blink and you will miss sort of stuff.

This is one of those buying opportunities that comes up outside of Donald’s reign probably 2-3 times in a trading lifetime. I double bagged off tariffs and think this will deliver at least 30-60% across the portfolio in a 2-3 year span.

Buy the fear, but as you say this has a long way to go yet I fear.

THe stock market falls, it goes up. People kill each other. We are just the small people at the bottom that get to live the existence. There is a massive global rebalance of power happening, the fundamentalist east facing moon worshipping religion isn’t going to do well out of this. They are just the small fry that are getting caught up in the rebalance of power towards the East.

The Iranian regime has it coming though, which very alive Bibi is delivering in bucketfuls.

"The world will be in better place if you take Israel out from the map".

Again, not relevant to IAG share price.

If Iran want to do that, they better grow some balls and get on with it. They are utter pathetic failures as a state at achieving anything and getting their asses handed to them across Gaza, Lebanon and now Iran. And compare the sizes of the countries. If they didnt spend half their lives on their knees facing east, and the other half having fantasies of destroying Iran and whining on about the inequity of Palestinians, they may start to drag their backward behinds out of the stone age. Their own population are so fed up with them, they are now providing Mossad with data and getting even more of the leadership turned into squidgy body parts and pink mist.

Yep, agree. I’m a strong buy here… I’m picking up American Longhaul at the moment as their fuel supply is much less constrained and expect their business will be on acid. They will be picking up a lot of the Asia trade that EK and Qatar can’t handle through their hubs at the mo

as predicted, looks like the sp is currently ****ting the bed.

currently sat on a gain (just) and i am still invested here. i think we are more likely to see 320 before we see 400.

And what happens when Trump TACO and Iran keep the straits closed as they have stated they want war reparations paying by the USA before they re-open, and also want the exit of all US bases from the Gulf? I think the assumption that Uncle Sam packs up his kit, boys and girls and calls it a day instantly reverts things the previous status quo. Im not sure that is going to happen?

Not sold on this yet.

The straits are closed still. We are living off a dwindling strategic reserve. Whilst a few more of the regime have been shwacked and sent off to meet their goats, im not convinced there is a credible path out. I am adding slowly, but think we may see another stinker of a down wave here.

Much of the market reaction is to do with the anticipated response from the Fed at tonights vote. The structural issues of supply of fuel havent gone away and I dont see much overt messaging about effective diplomacy (which is somewhat difficult with the rate at which the regimes leadership is being taken out).

So ive reduced slightly at 360. Still too much risk here for me to add. Cant see a solution atm to the Straits issue, still not enough shipping passing, UAE and Saudi facilities being repeatedly hit and to cap it off, Heating Oil (the same stuff that fuels aircraft) has jumped to astronomic prices as the bulk of Europe's JET A-1 comes from the Gulf. This is going to weigh on 2 quarters imho.

Either the overthrow of the reich, i mean Iranian regime or diplomacy will be required. If this drags on another 2 weeks without resolution, we are past the point at which re-established LNG will be switched on in time for many suppliers.

Sorry Betterlife, what does this have to do With IAG?

Trump cant Chicken out on this one. He has got himself in above his head here - Chickening out wont just reflect on him, it undermines the state and their armed forces competence in achieving strategic objectives. My estimate is this has at least another month to run (The strategic reserve release will last between 60 and 70 days) giving time for flows to normalise after hostilities cessation. The only other way this will stop is if the senate manage to change the war powers act in a session. I rather than buying BP, I am looking to start adding into increasingly value shares that are emerging. Only concern is this becomes an embedded/structural downturn.

This chat is about as boring as the green haired Corbyn loving Palestinian flag waving lot. Let’s keep it real people. If it’s not about being able to retire at 55 with a gorgeous wife and the training marriage paid off, please keep it off the forum.

Dont agree. This will be last years chip papers in no time. Peoples behavior doesnt change this quickly - think about face nappies during Covid. I think that within 6 months, people will be still going for the cheapest deal on SkyScanner.

I’ve opened up spread bets on OP and Natural gas. Not buying we are through this and until I see the French escorting tankers through the straits, not buying into it either.

Good to see my prediction on use of the strategic reserve case to pass

It’s not about winning or losing or even competing. It about having enough wings to retire at 52 with a pretty 30 year old on your arm.

After being in the red all week to the tune of 28k,I’m glad to see that the political limits of what Trump is hoping have now been established.

I’m expecting more disruption and more drops, but hopeful that we won’t see the 320 gap filled now, unless a tanker blows up in the straits.

GLA and was nice to wake up 18k better off this morning

Still think this is too soon. Words from Trump don’t get tankers through the strait.

They need to do a comparison on premium load factor to be honest. I can never find seats in club or First. My take is, lower loads in Economy isn’t a disaster.

I think we will see some recovery. I’m not convinced we have seen the bottom. The French and Greeks have to get past Yemen and Houthi attacks on the way down the Red Sea. Lots of water to still go under the bridge. Trump has shown his hand though and it’s obvious he has one eye and a lot of focus on the Mid terms here

Looks like the TACO trade of the century!

Time to switch back into Airlines!

This is starting to look like another TACO trade opportunity