RE: Re down down down6 Mar 2026 20:10
Yep, agree that we need to see something positive before going in further here and id not be surprised if we re-test 320 on the way down. Im in at an average of 375 so this will hurt! 320 is around another 12-13% discount. What isnt helping is are the embargoes on Russian oil (particularly BP's Roseneft stake which they still technically hold).
The USA has told india they will forgo tariffs and will permit access to Russian oil; this offloads the supply issues from one of the largest global consumers.
Interesting this crisis will support Russia massively in its ukraine venture as 1) OP is going to give their coffers a boost 2) The stock of air defence weapon systems and precision munitions is going to become somewhat taut. for 1-2 years.
On the flip side, I can see a lot of international pressure to re-open the straits. That will happen one of two ways.
1) Massive global support for US/Israeli coalition across GCC and western nations. This will be framed by the UN as necessary if this is the line they will follow.
2) US/Israel will be put under a lot of pressure to bring Iran to the table; I see this unlikely with the current statements from Germany, UK support to the US bomber force and GCC bemusement at rocket attacks on civilian/tourist areas by Iran. I see 1) therefore the most likely outcome.
I said earlier in the week (Sunday possibly) they had to focus on the medium ranged ballistic missile threat this week, as well as remove comms and logistics infrastructure. That objective will be completed I expect this weekend and most of the long range stuff was destroyed/buried in the past 3 days in the very fixed tunnels.
The next phase I suspect will be Combat Air Patrol/Support in the north of Iraq through Turkey and possibly as close as Erbil Airbase to the Kurds, who will provide a northern front distraction to the IRCG, combined with a naval flotilla providing surface to air protection from cruise missiles and Drones targetting ships. This could for example be accomplished by deploying American and GCC forces on the ships with early warning radar and shoulder launched surface to air missile systems. This will be point defence and only used where Unmanned aircraft get through the multi-layered defence of Aegis and a carrier battle group, including long, medium and short range missile systems and point Defence 30mm Goalkeeper CIWS.
The USA will need to act on this quickly and I expect this will happen by early next week. To give a sense of scale, to maintain global supply, the straits would need to see a minimum of 10 medium sized oil tankers a day pass through. There are plenty of "empty" ships as I remember parked up next to Fujarah port, these ships as soon as the straits are protected will be zooming through the strait looking to gas up. Tankers I expect will fuel and then establish holding positions to the east of the strait; this will allow reserve capacity once the backlog is done.
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