Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Smiffy not from Easy. Smiffy/smudger is a pretty common surname in the uk.

You also have a majority of Persians that hate Islamist fundamentalism that want a return to a normal life without the bonds of Islam.

60 days is the constitutional limit set by Acts of US government. He is simply setting expectation in case they need flex in light of unforeseen circumstances. In less than a week, Iran is missing a president, a head of state, its navy and most of its war stock of drones and ballistic missiles. And the American CAS supported Kurdish insurrection hasn’t even begun yet. The Kurds by the way are fully integrated in American air power doctrine, know how to issue a 9-line and have worked extensively with spearhead units in both NATO and the US.

If it descends in a civil war, it won’t have an impact on the Straits. Iran oil sanctions mean they bring next to nothing to the OP and OPEC piece anyhow.

If we are purist about this - the end of the regime ends disruption to GCC airports. The new President of Iran seems to have a more sensible head on his shoulders.

Abacus, continue to lose money. If you had pulled your head out of your arse and followed my advice, you’d be 25% up on a week by now.

when you come up with any evidence that senior politicians were involved with the sexual abuse of children, i’ll listen. but the only place that evidence exists is in your head and the conspiracy theory that 50,000 troops and over a trillion dollars are committing to a conflict to free iran and deny the regime the ability to attack western interests, as they have repeatedly in the gulf, and prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons.

i’m really sorry you don’t have the intelligence and think for yourself instead of immersing yourself in liberal anti-trump butt hurt **** fantasies. but i guess that’s the world we live in.

Done my time thanks, including being involved in taking out a large number of Quds force animals in southern Iraq and in the Shia triangle. Many of these animals had been responsible for taking out our people.

If you had ever met a child who had their kneecaps drilled at 12 years of age after watching their father get decapitated in front of them, I guarantee too that you would have a different viewpoint.

You really really do not have an idea of what these people are capable of.

We are already involved, as are those nations that don’t turn away and stand up to thugs. The sooner the Iranian regime is completely laid down and destroyed and the people permitted to stand up for free and fair elections, the better. Instead you’d prefer to wave your non-nation Palestinian flag and support Hamas

Do I support it? Hell I’m celebrating it. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis left to starve. A true end to Middle East conflict. GCC states coming together and siding with the west an abandoning the old world hatred.

The IRGC being slaughtered - possibly the best news in ages. The Russians completely abandoned Iran at the first sniff of trouble and probably supported the Israelis by turning off their electronic intelligence and radar intelligence off on Saturday.

The US navy have managed to sink their first target with a torpedo since WW2. The Airforce, space force and other deployments are working at the highest level of integration we have ever seen. AI targeting and creation of the Air tasking order. Modern Warfare has been perfected and it’s beautiful.

Wizz? Why are you talking about a provincial loco shorthaul outfit? IAG are delivering premium products across multiple brands. Iberia and Vueling just smashed it out the park and their revenue is catching up with BA.

IAG is in rude performance, firing on all cylinders an expertly placed for any consolidation opportunity.

Up to 50% Of discretionary pot this morning.

No one knows if this is going sub 350... It all depends on the geopolitical landscape. All you can do is look at probabilities and lay the chips down when it works in your favour.

RoyGa, your mental model I guess is aligned to hope that Hamas and Free Palestine have a hope.

If you think its currently easy, consider the impact this is having on the wider region. But also look at the response from GCC states that despise the Shia regime in Iran and want to tear its throat out. Bahrain's interior ministry has just told its people, if you dont like our involvement, jump on a boat and head over to Iran. The UAE is about to take part in combat operations, as will Saudi. Qatar will limit themselves to defensive operations due to their vulnerable LNG infrastructure that provides 20% of global Natural Gas through the straits.

These things tend to look awful when underway, but then again, time and time again, the night is darkest just before the dawn. The assumption here is that Israel and America are somehow not in control, they are not running things to plan. Id suggest that evidence is quite the contrary and Israel will have been preparing a counter regime insurgency for years before this conflict started.

SP is already down 20% (or was yesterday) on the 464 peak Friday.

I’m planning on adding here if we see other significant falls with an aim to capture a good average. I genuinely am not expecting this to last long and the military campaign is already well ahead of where I expected it (check my posts - commented on how this would unfold).

Israel and the US are now after the regime forces. There is a very significant contingent of ground attack aircraft that is on its way over from the US (about 50 billion of us DoD air power is sat on the ramp in Crete).

Next stage is to take out regime strongholds in the regions and support a national uprising outside of Tehran. My main buy signal will be when regions start to be taken back from the regime. Once that happens this is going to snowball pretty quickly.

Now in for 35% of pot after averaging down. Average price is 374.

ADR stock showed a consistent rise through trading after London close so would expect 2% up on open (assuming there is no more Oil price carnage overnight).

Anyone got a view on the next gap down below the 360 support level?

I’m clocking 320 on Fib, which is a bit of a way down… just working out my average down strategy

Volume chart today with 1 minute reporting showing some €1m+ trades going through, typically associated with buys.

All I’ll say is this is a great time for share buyback from IAG!

And as Trump said publicly, he is not only creating jobs in America, he has created a load of free positions in the Iranian government!

No, once there is a critical Mass of Iranians taking control of the country and taking back control from the regime, it’s game over.

What westerners don’t understand - the regime largely exists in Tehran. It doesn’t have a strong hold over regional areas and the IRGC and secret police are somewhat capacity constrained at present with resolution of uprisings…

Once wide scale areas are “liberated” from the IRGC, that is my marker to start buying in significantly. For open declaration, currently sat at 15% of pot in IAG with the rest held back in cash to buy large chunks with hard falls.

My prediction on the end state on this is that it’s going to end really really abruptly. That could be in 2 days, 2 weeks or 2 months. I think the SP has a way to fall yet. It’s got some support at 380 but if we have a shock and something happens to push down; it’s going to fall further.

A bit like last springs TACO trade tariff fiasco, the recovery will be strong imho. Don’t sell your shares - I’ll be buying them on the way down!

They are worried as I mentioned yesterday of the Arab nations running out of interceptors before they shwack all of the launch sites and storage facilities.

They now have a difficult operational call. Protect the traits and secure the oil supply, or press home the attack on missile capability.

The former protects global oil, the latter preserves Gulf support for the operation. I’d bet they will go for taking out the missile sites, meaning there will be some upward pressure on oil prices for a while.

Yep. My RTX has been a pounding investment. Lots of pounds in my pension and ISA, lots of Pounding of Iran and Gaza.

Win win.