Member Info for smiffyBlok85

Sold out BP and have tepidly come back in here with 15% of pot…

Not sure if we are seeing a bit of a dead cat bounce at the moment. I think we will see a few ups and downs. Biggest assessed risk now is Iranian missile supply vs interceptor supply. If they run out of THAAD and patriot, it’s going to get messy for Bahrain, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. I think this has a way to roll yet.

Offer Price after open auction on Live (IG) is 379

Nothing that we do as retail investors affects the outcome. All we are doing is placing a mark of value against invested markets we see a return on investment. This is why weak green haired woke brigade investment strategies in ESG have never interested me. Firstly, they underperform, secondly, my investment decisions are not going to make a jot of difference to leadership decision-making.

Ill be in at some point tomorrow. Ive got a load of dry powder saved up from 2 major waves (1st being Trump TACO trade down at 223, second being the drop after Q3). This is a solid, profitable business that seemingly relies on Willie's mantra of turning Crisis into an opportunity, eat the weak and drive efficiency at all points.

I think if you bothered to read my posts, I most certainly am "In the Know"; unfortunately, ive had to deal with fervent rabid left wingers like yourself all my life. The party is over for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. We will see the fall of a despotic Theological oppressive Islamist regime in the very near future. Good riddance.

Get back to voting for the green party; Im making too much money at the moment off Defence stocks and Macro trades to care about your green haired woke opinions.

"All those sexual assaults against children don’t seem to bother the world, but someone’s religion does. Madness."

I guess you are forgetting that the Iranian regime promotes marriage to females as young as 12 years of age and have routinely used rape as a means of population control by the security forces? Where is the evidence outside of Democrat twitter feeds, that the Epstein files revealed abuse by anyone other than Epstein? There isnt any. And you cant be guilty by association.

I also guess your allegiance to your leftist extremist views and support of Palestine is more important than the wholesale massacre of 50,000 innocent protesters, unlike the vast numbers of guilty terrorists that were unalived in Gaza?

Either way, back on point, its just a macro to understand and invest.

Final post for today.

Worth also checking out the current FOREX rate for the Iranian Rial. Either they start using the Great Satan's currency, or Iranians will be putting brick dust in their Bread dough circa Stalingrad. Inflation like this ALWAYS results in regime change; people can chant to God and the Ayatollah all they want; if they cant feed their families, they get angry at those in control.

Aligned with Maxus mental model on this. We arent looking at a Covid scenario. This as I said yesterday will be short and brutal. Whilst it looks massively disorderly, the military action taken will be part of a much wider strategy that will include information operations and use of Persian sentiment (both in Iran and globally) as a "centre of mass"... We are in the first or second phase of a combined military and political operation that will see peaks and troughs in sentiment. First bits typically involve developing Air Superiority/Supremacy. Then the Iranian navy will get taken out in the next 48 hours with state communications either taken out or interfered with. The key aim is to undermine the regime's authority to the public.

They will then look to use (as they have been with the protests) Info Ops to support a (probably non-violent) popular uprising and replacement of the regime. Its never a straight path though and there will be ups and downs along the way.

Airlines are pretty well protected I think over the period we are likely to see on Fuel Prices looking at the Annual report; they are hedged to the hilt. Not a good time to be a counter party issuing fuel hedging contracts; these Black Swan events are a nightmare for pricing models!

It absolutely wasnt priced in.. The attack was a complete surprise. Whilst the drop across airlines was indicative that a few of us saw the writing on the wall, the real world impacts of the attack, effect on Oil price and flights was not. The scale of the attack nor the continued nature of the conflict also was not predicatible. If moderate iranians dont stand up en-masse and take back Persia and the regime simply replace the snakes head with another, this is going to drag on potentially weeks.

Trump has 60 days before he needs to get legal approval from congress. Whilst that is a book-end on military action, its a long time for the industry and potential oil price changes. My take is this is a 1-2 week affair. But its not clear whether Iran will continue attacks on tourism in the middle east. If they dump 5000 sea mines in the straits of Hormuz, it's going to get a bit 1991 and Kuwait oil fires imho.

DYOR etc.

Trump has confirmed the Iranian spiritual leader has been picked out of the rubble. OP currently up 11% and it’s going to be a bit janky for a while… but… as Mother Theresa Said “Oil Price inflation is Temporary… BUY THE DIP!!”

Looks like the bearded wizard nut job may already be with his 72 goats. This is being reported by the Israeli news. Apparently the first bomb that went in took out the entire cabinet

If this is true we will know by market open Monday.

Iran doesn’t have any allies.

At least none that want to have any form of military capability that’s not junked by the time this finishes.

Anyone here good with technicals?

What are the pricing levels that gaps that will be filled on the Way down?

Think this is a fantastic company that will long term do well.. no telling where it will go in the short term, but look what happened with Trump tariffs last year..: fell like a stone then recovered.

This isn’t like Afghanistan and Iraq. It’s going to be very short and very brutal, BUT once over it will be yesterday’s chip papers.

I first got back in to IAG after getting torched in Covid at around 225p; I’ve added all the way up to 410 and liquidated at 460 on Friday. I’ll be going in with 60% of my pot off the back of this Trump Trade once it settles down.

I see IAG as the best airline opportunity to capture the 50%+ growth in London traffic over the next 10 years and similar global growth. Whilst I do switch out based on major macros, my normal strategy is hold and view time in is more important than timing. The Israel attack on Hezbollah on Thursday together with the Uk pulling embassy staff was a red card though, which is why I closed my position Friday.

You do you and supporting Palestine.

I'm busy clearing up here and securing an early retirement on Macro trades.

Im sure my RTX is going to do well out of this too.

Thousands wont be killed you clown; where do you get that idea?

Iran has FA now time to FO. Sponsored and set up Oct 7th. Provided weapons forces (Quds in iraq) and training to both the Iraq and Afghanistan insurgencies. Yemen is currently in pieces thanks to state sponsorship of terrorism there.

Lots of regime sponsors are about to be unalived, a bit like 50,000 terrorists were unalived in Gaza. My heart bleeds. Time forthe theological nut jobs to realise god doesnt exist.

Either way, great for the long term prospects of the Iranian people and a great dip buying opportunity after I sold out at the peak on Friday and bought a load more BP. I did warn people on here a few times exactly what was going to play out.

The goat maters dont have the range on their missiles to get past Cyprus. They have an entire carrier battle group equipped with SM-3 and Patriot which means nothing is getting into Europe. So dream on.

As we speak, waves of western aircraft are conducting offensive combat operations and wiping out any modern military capability the Iranians had left after decades of sanctions. Launher sites, manufacturing (both conventional and nuclear) Military command centres, secret police, naval, all of it is getting flattened.

After this will come the mass public uprising from people fed up to the back teeth of theological regimes, head scarves and brutality.

IAG and all international airlines I guess will take a dip; OP is going to pop but this is going to be over very, very quickly; perhaps two or three at most.

Not a chance. Their launch sites are going to be dusted with their S300 and S400 launchers in the next few hours. No troops on the ground but the ayatollah is going to be buried under a few thousand tonnes of concrete rubble and a major international antagonists vile regime will be done.

I’m hoping they have armed all of the young people they have tried to slaughter with assault rifles and they get to enact revenge on the IRGC

Iranistan….. balloon has gone up.

Airline shares getting mullered, as predicted, due to Trump about to bomb the regime there three stages further into the stone age than they already exist.

Avoided 21k of losses today and hopefully popcorn watching the fireworks tonight in Tehran.

Have a great weekend. Hoping to get back in next week below 420.