Member Info for Smartinvestment

A very thorough (if slightly long!) presentation. I received an answer to my question on when does the company expect to become cash positive. The answer was 2027. That may sound a long way away but they are making excellent headway with both programmes.

There were a lot of positives in today’s presentation. For example how frugal they are with capital spend compared to their competitors. I also liked that their technology is unique and serves similar but slightly different markets to their competitors.

I would have liked to see both the revenue graphs for Stereax and Golliath stacked together to show the overall expected trajectory.

With the cut in interest rates, tech shares like this will come back into fashion as potential ‘hyper growth’ stocks. I’m not sure when, but at some point I believe this will start flying up again. I’m not in any hurry for the share price to move as I’d like to invest more over the coming months whilst it’s around 25p a share which I think is a ridiculous price. The potential reward to risk ratio for Ilika is massive IMO but please DYOR.

Slow drip drip of sells and no buys.

Itaconix needs to hold the 140p support level. If that goes the next support isn’t until 120p (the level Cluelessshareboy mentioned in his post). That’s a level at which I would also add shares ahead of the next trading update.

Lootgaloot - a very thought provoking post. I’m inclined to agree with you about margins and distributors.

I have often asked myself why Itaconix is a publicly traded company? I keep coming to the conclusion that’s how they want/need to fund the company. I’m not saying that is a good or a bad thing but it does make you question whether it’s the right model.

There is a long history of fund raises to keep the company afloat. The latest and biggest one by far really has to be transformative for the company. I think we will know whether they are going to make it by January 2025 when we receive the H2 update which needs to show significant progress on all fronts.

I agree with this scenario in the most part as there is just so little interest out there as reflected in the lowly trading activity.

However, I am more optimistic that after the H2 trading update we will see a sustained upward trajectory rather than a continuation of the rinse and repeat cycle we have been stuck in.

Thats just my opinion and my loss sheet here would suggest that my investment opinion on Itx isn’t worth anything lol. GLA

Thank you for sharing. Ilika have clearly focused on quality and I always believe that quality wins the day. Once they scale up to produce larger Goliath batteries I can see the orders flying in. With a market cap of just £40m their technological developments must be closely monitored by the bigger fish.

Amidst all this weeks negativity, in fairness to the company at least they have recognised the need for improved marketing communications efforts. Let’s see the impact they make over coming months. I’ve still got a pile left to invest when the price stabilises.

Glad I missed it by the sound of these messages!

When I read this morning’s RNS I thought today might be a s***storm but I daren’t post anything as I didn’t want to be called names again.

The issue with today’s announcement is twofold:

- There was no increase in revenue forecast

- Gross margin was forecast at 36% even though the company achieved 38% in H1.

So as I said back in April realistically it will be the January 2025 H2 report which sees ITX at a more realistic valuation.

Hopefully we get a trading update before January but failing that I think investors will be waiting to buy until just prior to the January update.

The frustrating thing as we all know, is that it really would only take a little positive news to get us moving upwards again. It will come, but more patience required I’m afraid.

Thanks Trojan

Very positive article. Digital marketing and the new look website should help pull the punters in.

My only winge is that they should have launched this a couple of years ago but hey ho. It’s here now and it will make a significant difference.

A potential new IP and emergence of other related new polymers:

“New product advances continue with our plant-based superabsorbent. We have the desired polymer and are continuing to develop and optimize modifications to the production process that are expected to improve the production economics and possibly generate new intellectual property. We are encouraged that other related new polymers may emerge from this development work.”

Hi AJP I will miss this week’s presentation. Any chance you could report back on progress with superabsorbents. Any indication of product launch time or interested customers would be good. I’ll submit a question along those lines.

Incredibly exciting times for Itaconix!

Love the slogan “For Nature with Nature”

Hi AJP, nice research.

So according to your figures:

2022: 120 metric tonnes

2023: 140 metric tonnes

2024: 200 metric tonnes (and we still have 4 months of the year left).

That is one heck of a jump from 2023

Up 10p yesterday and expect more to follow in the run up to next Tuesdays update. Then on Tuesday we have a double whammy of things that could drive the price seriously upwards:

1. In the morning RNS we will get a sneak preview of how H2 is going as well as confirmation of the interim H1 results.

2. An in depth discussion in the afternoon on how well the new products and applications are progressing, as well as progress with new customers.

And to those who might think you are late to the party you certainly are not. Share price used to comfortably in excess of 12p before the 50:1 consolidation which equates to 600p today.

Itaconix is a much stronger company today than it was when the price was 600p. Itx now has a large financial reserve, a much stronger board of directors, a much wider portfolio of products and applications and an ever growing customer base.

…and there you go. RNS announced the next working day after the MMs trade 70,000 Itaconix shares. They knew it was coming and were positioning to capitalise on the interim results and investor event.

Roll on 10th September :-)

GLA and DYOR

Today’s market close took the share price over both the 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Average of 152p.

In my opinion, Itaconix is primed for a massive break out and the markets know this. Ask yourselves why were 70,000 shares traded today on no news? That is 10 times the average daily volume and the vast majority were unknown trades. Watch this share closely - I sense the share price will be in a very different place in a couple of weeks time.

It’s either gotta be good news or bad news coming and I firmly believe it will be the former.

GLA and DYOR

Hi AJP last time we saw big trades of this nature it preceded a decent rise in share price to 195p in late July. I think this is positioning to take advantage of the upcoming investor event and half year results. Thats an easy 35% gain from these levels, hopefully higher.

Hi AJP I think I made my expectations regarding share price, clear in my post on 16th August which I have copied below. I just hope I’m right:

Short window of opportunity

16 Aug 2024 18:06

Around the first week of September we know from history that the company will announce the date for interim results and a meet the investor event which is usually a week later.

We also know these events tend to drive up the share price which is why I’ve added more shares today.

I am quite excited about the upcoming one as there is so much going on in the company right now.

My conservative estimate is that we will be back to £2 by then or if it’s a really positive update and session we could get back to £2.50.

All my own opinion so please DYOR.

Hi AJP all good questions.

Another one is whether they still think the OTC listing was a good idea. Far from the intention of attracting new investors, it seems to have become a mechanism for existing stockholders in the US to sell their shares. I believe this is exerting a downward pressure on the share price. The sale of 51,536 shares on 20th August on the OTC market (ticker ITXXF) is a good example as you can see how since then the share price here has been subdued.

1. Was the recent OTC market sale of 51,536 shares on 20th August made by a current or previous employee of Itaconix?

2. How many years of raw material does the company hold at current forecast demand levels?

3. What level of interest has there been in the company’s superabsorbent formulations from potential customers?

I find the annual reports of companies offer a lot of useful background info if you can be bothered to read them. Reading through the 2023 annual report there were a couple that stood out in the principle risk and uncertainties section. Always a good section to read as it tells you what the company is focused on and what may be round the corner.

1. Customer concentration and retention. Talks about maintaining attractive gross profit margins and not having an excessive reliance on a limited number of customers. Clearly the company has taken strong if painful action this year to address this.

2. Government and geopolitical risk. They are keeping a close eye on “legislation affecting the US import of Chinese goods on the overall business”. I think this explains some of the increase in volumes this year as there has been some stock piling of raw materials which is also mentioned elsewhere in the report. This is a risk I closely monitor as there have been a lot of tensions between US and China and a battle for controlling precious raw materials. At present Itaconic acid has stayed off this list and clearly this is something the company watch carefully.

It will be interesting to see what update there is to the principle risk and uncertainties section in the upcoming interim report.