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Elsol it isn’t scare mongering - it’s cold hard facts!

Loss of largest customer accounting for about half of all revenue in 2023.

Positive EBITDA pushed back a year to 2026

Time to stop seeing the world through rose tinted glasses. Your over optimistic posts are more to blame for “poor PIs” continuing to loose money here. Keep pumping based on scant speculative information to explain this disastrous business decision and see where it gets you.

Elsol - happy to disclose that yes I sold out at 190p as soon as I learnt of the disastrous news. You can paint the decision any colour you like but the bottom line is the board FAILED to renegotiate acceptable terms with its largest customer.

- no I don’t want a re-entry. The company is not investable at present.

- maybe if there is positive news next January I will re-enter. Until then I will monitor developments.

- lovely company but not a lovely investment

Sadly I tend to agree that the share price will continue to fall - potentially back to 120p. My logic for this is as follows:

1. The trading update will just repeat the bad news. Canaccord advised it was our largest customer worth half the 2023 revenue.

2. Canaccord confirmed projections have moved back a year. We are now looking at 2026 for positive EBITDA.

3. The money markets move money from minute to minute. They are not going to leave money sat around waiting until January 2025 which is when the next likely positive trading update will occur.

Unless there is unexpected positive news I can’t see any significant improvement in share price until early 2025

Takes a brave person to catch a falling knife. I’m waiting on the sidelines until we bottom out which may not be until a few days after the trading update.

Canaccord confirmed the loss of ITX’s single largest customer. They “accounted for around half 2023 revenue”.

2024E revenue forecast reduced from $9.5m to $6.2m

“We expect gross margin for Itaconix to be higher with other customers. However, the absolute lower revenue means a significant cut to EBITDA expectations for this year and next year”.

EBITDA 2024E reduced down from (0.8) to (1.6)

2025E reduced down from 0.2 to (0.6)

2026E 0.5

All figures US$m.

Canaccord state that they are essentially pushing numbers out one year to the right (which is what I calculated myself yesterday). Therefore 2026 is now forecast to be the first positive year.

Price target downgraded from 400p to 325p

Some positive points to cling on to:

Canaccord remain Buyers

Itaconix will remain in a substantial cash positive position throughout the forecast period thanks to the 2023 fundraise.

Excellent balanced post BR

Yesterday’s RNS felt like a rushed effort to get the bad news out before it leaked out. Given these negotiations must have been ongoing for some time it surprises me that the company couldn’t come out with a better statement.

“If I were CEO” I would have also said, based on our modelling our gross margin will increase from 30% to XX%.

That would have made yesterday’s bad news much more palatable.

Let’s hope that the upcoming RNS gives us this level of detail and assurance. We need clear business projections not words. Until then the share price will just drift.

Thanks Nick - glad I’m not the only with major concerns about today’s news. The share price is currently holding up around £2 in the hope that the upcoming trading update delivers some good news but the numbers won’t change in 3 weeks time so we will then drift down for several more months.

Surfie - “Ramptastic” - brilliant word I like it. Yes I have always been very positive about Itaconix because it all sounds great in theory doesn’t it?! But reality has been one sucker punch after another. Every single time we think the worst is behind us we get hit by more bad news. Sorry I’ve lost my faith in the company but I do hope it succeeds.

Thanks Elsol. I’ve just watched the short video where JS described “significant short term revenue loss’. I won’t be buying any more Itaconix until I am clear on the ramifications of today’s announcement and until the share price settles.

What worries me most is that this came out of nowhere so it’s hard to have confidence in this company getting to $100m

Hi AJP

In the December 2023 trading update they forecast revenue of “$9.5m or more for FY2024”.

Today have revised this figure down to between $6.0 and 6.5m.

So the loss of business is worth between $3m and $3.5m which equates to 31% to 37% of their total business. This has to be their largest customer unless you think they have another customer accounting for more than a third of their total business.

In any company that level of lost revenue would significantly increase overhead costs.

I’m really not overreacting when I say this is a disaster. They have lost at least 12 months worth of revenue growth in today’s announcement.

DB that’s all good and well to cut out small unprofitable customers but this is their largest customer. Significantly Lower revenue means much higher overheads as a proportion of the business. This is a massive cut in expected revenue for 2024 and sets the company back at least 1 year. The share price will now drift down over the coming weeks and months.

So it turns out that the frequently trotted out John Shaw claim about sticky recurring revenues are actually not so sticky after all.

I have lost my confidence in this company and I would urge others to take a cold hard look at the performance of this share before ploughing in more of their hard earned money.

Unfortunately this is the way with Itaconix. Bottom line - The company has failed to renegotiate with its largest customer.

This is a disaster and the share price for this year is screwed and I expect it to continue to fall lower.

Itaconix history seems to be that every time we think we are making progress we suffer a huge setback.

Itaconix has just lost its largest customer. Predicted Revenue for 2024 slashed by almost half!!!

This might be great for gross margin but it absolutely screws us for revenue.

I’m sorry but you can not paint a positive picture with this and the share price today and for the rest of 2024 will reflect this.

General market sentiment has been low going into tomorrow’s FOMC update. Tomorrow being seen as “local bottom for risk” and that market sentiment will swing up again.

That plus the Itaconix update in “early April” will likely see quick upward movement to 300p and hopefully beyond

Itx would certainly be a great fit for Unilever’s wider product ranges. The strength of the share price increase day after day, makes me wonder if a massive deal has been secured with Unilever.

12p in old money is where we should be, so 600p in today’s money. Thats what we have to look forward to :-) so continuing to hold fast.

Thanks AJP. This is John’s best interview to date. Really top drawer. Clear on progress to date, upcoming developments and expected progress. Sounds like they are still working to crack the super absorbent product but sounds like they’ve made massive progress on paints and leathers.

We they continue to grow at 40% then I calculate they will get to over $100 revenue in 2031.

Our current market cap is only $28m.

Serious re-rating must be coming.

Fair to say I am delighted to finally see the trading update and for it to be so positive. The biggest thing for me is that cash balance is still $10m which means the company is breaking even financially. Probably better than break even when you consider that it is investing heavily in future products and business. At last the turning point we have all been waiting for.

The timing of the one in December was bizarre and seemed to be a panic response to the continued fall in share price. The delay to 2023 FY results makes me sceptical. Any professional company should follow a regular schedule for updating its investors. Itaconix don’t. Without a doubt Itaconix is the most frustrating investment I have ever made.

i refuse to top up anymore in the absence of regular trading updates. we should have had fy 2023 weeks ago. i’m that ****ed off that i’m thinking about selling out of itaconix and regular readers here will know i have always been a strong supporter of the company. we are in a bull market but itaconix has not seen any share price growth. that is extremely worrying and there are 1001 other tech opportunities out there. let’s see if anything comes next week.