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Thanks Tony a great spot. Surprised they didn’t have a RNS today about SPARX as that is significant announcement. Really pleased to hear about this collaboration. Sounds like they are aligning themselves with the big hitters in the laundry sector.

So today is the start of the 3 day SEPAWA congress.

Itaconix is stand 401 which looking at the floor plan is in an excellent location on the perimeter where you get high foot fall.

On Friday morning Dr Jim Gordon is giving a presentation as part of the Sustainability section of the European Detergents Conference. His presentation details are as follows:

Performance and Environmental Fate of a New Class of Bio Based Polymers

Forum for Innovation (SEPAWA)

| Sustainability, Environment

Dr. Jim Gordon (Itaconix)

Polycarboxylate polymers are critical raw materials in the formulation of high-performance cleaning solutions and are critical to delivering excellent shine in automatic dishwashing formulations. Consumers, product managers and formulators must deliver top performance under tough conditions and yet still navigate the complex landscape of cost, bio sourcing and environmental fate. Whilst eco labels provide support to our industry by setting standards, the complexity of carbon footprint, environmental fate and impact on global warming provides additional challenges. We will present a new class of bio-based polymers and demonstrate how the new chemistry can deliver superior performance. We will provide data to illustrate how the polymers can facilitate a reduction in product concentration and chemical loading into the environment and review their short term and long-term environmental fates.

I’m hoping the near tripling of raw material shipments this year, expertly detailed by AJP, is a reflection of business is booming. Also wonder if their previous largest customer has realised life isn’t greener on the other side and has now accepted Itaconix’s revised terms for a larger part of its business (as opposed to the small volumes it was continuing).

One other thought that came to mind is that it is a hedge against the possibility that Trump wins the election. Trump has repeatedly said he plans to impose an across-the-board tariff of either 10% or 20% on every import coming into the US, as well as a tariff upward of 60% on all Chinese imports.

If China were to reciprocate (which it likely will) that could affect Itaconix Acid shipments. Therefore it would seem very prudent for the company to hedge against this possibility.

Well we are into mid October, so the company should have all its third quarter financial data. It doesn’t usually give a trading update on Q3 but it would be welcomed. I think quarterly updates would help to smooth out some of the peaks and troughs we suffer from. We all know revenue will be better in the second half of the year and it would be great to hear an update on progress please.

Surprised to see shares being dumped today. I really thought 130p would be the bottom we bounce off. Here’s hoping for a better week next week and that we get some RNS news in the not too distant future. Wishing everyone a good weekend.

When I saw the RNS I was relieved on 2 fronts:

1. The outgoing auditor said there are no matters to be brought to the attention of the Company's members or creditors, so we know the company has a clean bill of health

2. I was worried it might be a trading update before I’ve had the chance to buy additional shares.

It’s a good warning not to hang around too long while the share price is this low.

ISSA Show North America is the largest and most comprehensive event dedicated to the worldwide industrial, commercial and residential cleaning and facilities industries. As the main show for facility solutions, ISSA brings together leading experts to create impactful solutions for the global cleaning community. This November, Itaconix will be joining 600+ exhibitors at the Mandalay Bay Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, where we will be sharing the latest developments in our plant-based cleaning technology. We will be at Booth 1634, so be sure to stop by and visit our team.

Yep must be a large buy as the live buy price has gone up from 134p to 140p.

Last week I commented that 130p very much felt like the bottom so well done anyone who snapped up shares around that price. Long way to go but much to look forward to IMO.

“Performance and environmental fate of a new class of bio based polymers”.

Dr. Jim Gordon, Global Director Cleaning & Hygiene at Itaconix, will present at SEPAWA on the complex issues facing today’s product managers and formulators, and how a new class of bio-based polymers can deliver superior performance while reducing chemical loading into the environment. If you’re attending SEPAWA, be sure to mark your calendar for October 18 at 9:15 CEST!

The fact that they are expanding their overnight team is very bullish. Working round the clock to fulfil orders! I know we’ve had many false dawns but this time feels different.

Thanks AJP that is good news.

I see the company are attending SEPAWA Congress in Berlin from 16-18 October.

SEPAWA have over 1800 members and is the largest European trade associations in the detergents/cleansers, cosmetics and perfume industry.

Itaconix really growing its European customer base!

Don’t want to tempt fate but it feels like the bottom is in. It’s been a turbulent week on the markets but Itaconix has been stable, all things considered. I had thought we might drop to 120p but I think there is too much progress to warrant a drop that low.

We are now into October and with every passing day the chance of an RNS will increase. I’m hoping to top up my holding in the next couple of weeks.

Good luck all and enjoy your weekend.

Sorry what does IR stand for?

I’m just going by the figures AJP stated in an earlier post which state raw material shipments for the past 3 years:

2022: 120 metric tonnes

2023: 140 metric tonnes

2024 (so far): 360 metric tonnes

As you can see the increase this year is incredible. It is three times 2022 and 2.5 times 2023 which was a bumper year for revenue.

My hypothesis is that when we get the next trading update it will be an upgrade to revenue and that will also drastically improve the profit/loss position as we already know gross margins have improved to circa 36%.

The massive increase in raw material shipments is well beyond what I calculate would be necessary to hit the forecast revenue and growth in new customers / applications.

In other words there is a difference we are unaware of and which does not appear to be factored into the most recent trading update. I wonder if their historic largest customer who they cut earlier this year has come back to the negotiating table and accepted the new pricing structure?

£1.34 to buy does seem a cracking opportunity. Not sure it will be the bottom as market dynamics as mentioned below are against us in the short term. You have to be very lucky to buy the exact bottom. At this level 10% either way won’t make much difference if the share price flies next year.

What can the company do in the interim? Some suggestions:

1. RNS on the massive uptick in shipments noted by AJP or RNS on new customer wins or RNS on an improved H2 forecast or RNS on new appointments.

2. Director Buys (decent sized)

3. Get new professional presenters in for next meet the investor event. Maybe the new marketing director.

Other suggestion welcome…

We all have reason to be glum but I do share AJP’s and Foolsgold’s enthusiasm for the future. I just think it will take the H2 update to really propel the share price and unleash the kraken! I’ve been saying that since April when the decision was taken to ditch low margin business. Short term pain for long term gain!

I will add a chunk of ITX in the period prior to the next trading update which could be earlier than expected. In the past they have given ad/hoc updates prior to the expected H1 / H2 end of trading periods. I will not get caught out by leaving it until December to buy as I have a sneaky feeling there will be an update late October to mid November ish.

Hi AJP

What does the date mean please. Is it the date of despatch by shipper or is it the date the raw materials were received by Itaconix?

It is an important distinction as to whether these shipments occurred before or after the latest update.

AJP I genuinely wish you were in charge of communications at Itaconix. You may well be onto something but I think you could make arguments either way.

Glass half full argument - The company has secured additional customers (as intimated) or perhaps more exciting has made significant progress with new applications such as superabsorbents, leathers, etc. which may require greater volumes of raw material?

Note to company: - if this is the case please release RNS as investors want to hear about the ‘wins’ in between the trading updates.

Glass half empty argument - why didn’t they increase their recent H2 revenue forecast? “The Company remains on track to deliver full year 2024 results in line with the Board's expectations and reiterates its revenue expectations of $6.0 million to $6.5 million and gross profit margin expectations of 36% for FY 2024.”

Are the company just stock piling in an increasingly uncertain world?

Bottom line if we don’t get any RNS good news then we are going to have to wait until the next trading update to get the share price moving.

Sounds a bit harsh given they have improved gross margins. However, I must admit my stop loss of 140p has been triggered so I’m out of Itaconix for now. I will reinvest if the share price drifts down lower before the H2 trading update (late January 2025 at a guess) or if we start to get some upward momentum in share price.

Hi Buzz, that’s a fair point re omission of metrics and one to ask for at the next presentation event.

I’m not surprised the forecast has changed from a few years ago. These developments always take longer than envisaged to come to fruition. It’s the same as another company I am invested in called Aurora Innovation in the US. They have seen massive frequent fund raises in their quest to develop driverless trucks but their share price is now starting to take off as their technology is best in class and they a clear roadmap to market. With tech shares it boils down to will their technology fulfil the target need and will it be adopted when it is finally ready for market. It’s a bit of a binary outcome. I believe Ilika will be a success because of the technology, structure, personnel and partnerships it has. But it is fraught with risk. I just think at the current share price the potential reward is worth that risk.