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Strong cash performance to close 2024

Itaconix has this morning reported FY24 revenue of $6.5mn with gross profit margins increasing to approximately 35%, up from 31% in 2023, both in line with existing guidance and our forecasts. The company continues to see significant growth in cleaning, particularly in Europe, and notable revenue increases in hygiene and beauty due to higher volumes from Croda and Nouryon. Formulated Solutions continues to expand, with the SPARX program expected to introduce at least 10 new products in 2025.

We estimate that excluding the low-margin distributor sales, discontinued in early 2024, Itaconix's underlying revenue grew around 70% y/y, an impressive expansion.

End-2024 net cash was $6.7mn (CGe $6.2mn), due to better than expected working capital performance. We are updating our numbers for the better cash performance but making no other material changes; we continue to see substantial further growth into 2025E and for the group to become EBITDA positive in 2026E.

We remain BUYers with an unchanged 325p price target.

Thanks Elsol for raising this with the company. Fingers crossed we hear from them very soon.

Well said Macca.

As for “Time for patience” - that’s all I’ve heard since the summer of 2021.

The company needs to be a lot more proactive in its marketing and investor relations to drive the share price up. If AJP were in charge of investor relations we would probably be double the share price.

Not what sure headlines you are reading but tariffs tariffs tariffs is all the markets are talking about this morning. Really hope it is just hard negotiation.

Anyway that aside we desperately need the Itaconix trading update as we are just drifting now. I really don’t understand why the company hasn’t released the figures when we are 3 weeks into the New Year. Let’s hope they get their finger out and update us tomorrow.

A week ago share price was on an upward ascent at 175p. Company ignored requests to publish the trading update this week. Today we are back at 160p.

Everyone also knows that Trump will be issuing many ‘day 1’ executive orders on Monday. We have no idea whether that will include a blanket China tariff but it is a real worry. So I will be going into this weekend feeling rather anxious as to what next week will bring.

Honestly this company does not help itself or its shareholders.

Absolutely share your sentiments Wacca. If it wasn’t for AJP, Thordon, DougerBoy, Elsol and others doing Itaconix’s marketing job for them I also would no longer be here. No one here doubts the massive strides the company has taken or the incredible hard work they are doing but they need to sing about it!

I don’t accept “it’s not John Shaw’s style”. Well it blooming needs to be. It is their job to market the company and all their achievements. I really hope the recent appointments in the marketing department will address this.

And if the company is reading - please get your trading update released. You know the figures so share them!

Absolutely agree Wacca. Everyone waiting for the trading update. I’m disappointed they didn’t release it this week before the new president commences so we could get a clean re-evaluation of share price. The company really needs to get ahead of the game.

Gearing up for over $10m revenue in 2025

Thanks Elsol and agree with your revenue growth estimates. We all feel like Itaconix is massively undervalued so it’s nice to see this demonstrated in your figures. At some point over the next few years I am expecting income to accelerate further from its already impressive growth rate. Outside of laundry detergents we have barely scraped the surface of income in other products and applications. The addressable market which JS often refers to is massive in each of these areas. I think JS talked about $100m by around 2030.

Intrigued by the buys of 3, 2, 3, 2 shares

The cost of the commission exceeds the value of all 4 purchases and make so financial sense.

Let’s see what comes next week 😉

Even if they were bought out today it would be circa £3 a share which demonstrates what a discount the current share price is. But I agree this isn’t the plan. They first want to turn a profit which is imminent and then it’s “drill, baby, drill”. Remember they have previously said they are break even most months and it’s only due to new investment to grow the business that they are not already in profit. When that transition to cash positive occurs I believe it will open the floodgates. I would hope they don’t sell out until we break previous highs of over £7.50 in new money.

We will get a much clearer trajectory from the upcoming TU, but surely the best is ahead of us. I’m expecting there will be noise along the way e.g. aggressive talk of China tariffs but we know this is just how Trump negotiates. He wants to see the stock market and US economy grow and he can not afford to introduce inflation through unnecessary tariffs.

I really hope so AJP. The company need to get the TU out next week. They can follow up at a later date with a company meet the investor event , but get the good news flowing ahead of what will be a turbulent fortnight in the world markets.

hi wildcat i was stating my honest opinion based on the evidence provided which was subsequently confirmed in the analysts reports (they also said trajectories would be pushed back 12 months). when the news about their largest customer broke last april it was a ‘strong sell’ because i knew the share price would drop hard. you can’t loose half your income and not expect the market to react! i could also envisage that it would take until the h2 trading update in january 2025 to start rebounding. if you p**** through all my messages you will see i openly stated all of the above. i got a lot of flack for being open with my thoughts but i have been proven right in what i forecast.

if you had high confidence that the share price would drop significantly and then rebound at a later predictable date wouldn’t you trade in and out or add shares on the dip?

Dear Wildcat I have been invested here for several years and always a firm believer in the companies technology. I was proven 100% right when I said the loss of the company’s largest customer would put us back 12 months and the share price plummeted. You can argue over gross margins but the bottom line is that the company lost what at the time accounted for 50% of its business. Other boards would have resigned.

I also clearly stated it would be H2 report in January when the share price recovered. We are now up to 170p (3.4p) in anticipation of the H2 report. I chose not to sell out at 15p (750p) and the company today is far more advanced to where it was back then. Yet the current share price does not reflect this progress. Again the board are responsible for this. I think they have recognised their past failures and I applaud their investment in a marketing team as well as their SPARX partnership and ramping up of overnight production. As a share holder I will continue to point out the good and the bad. Thankfully I believe we are now heading into a sweet spot and the company’s new marketing team needs to capitalise on this.

Dear Itaconix

Please give us loyal and very patient long term holders some welcome good news in the trading update. Some helpful tips:

1. Please release the TU next week so investors don’t start getting nervous.

2. Please include projected income for 2025 and 2026.

3. Please state which period the company is forecast to move to profitability eg. H1 2026.

4. Please update us on progress with super-absorbents. This is an area that excites many investors for its massive potential.

5. Please elaborate on the benefits of the SPARX collaboration.

Finally if and when the company does its next company meet investor Q&A session please get your new marketing team to create a slick video presentation and then open to Q&A. There has been so much incredible progress over the past 12 months you need to showcase it.

Go Itaconix!!

Great that Itaconix is ahead of the curve in its Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) reporting. Especially with new U.K. sustainability reporting standards due to be published for public consultation in Q1 2025.

Really positive ESG report from Itaconix though I did notice a couple of typing errors. e.g. In section “The Road Ahead” they repeat the same sentence in paragraph 1 and 2. Hopefully someone from the marketing team reads this discussion board and corrects this.

Thanks AJP

Almost guarantees the trading update will be before then. Hoping for next week personally.

The fact we can get instant prices to sell our shares but not to add/buy shares is a very good sign. It really won’t take much of a squeeze for the price to shoot up.

The traders are taking a big 5.5% spread at present. 161p to 170p. Easy money for them.

Just think by now Itaconix will know it’s H2 figures and is busy analysing them and preparing the trading update. Next week is a real possibility for an announcement. Based on AJPs shipment info hopefully we will see predicted revenue exceeded and / or an increase to forecast. Would love it if the move to forecast profit came forward from mid 2026 to end 2025

Hi AJP yes I’m also struggling to buy more shares. I was surprised to see the price down today given a trading update is imminent and wondered if it was market manipulation to get a cheaper price.