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Dare I say it, drill results this week?

The only problem with a JV is we are relying on the market to give Arc a fair valuation. Once a JV is announced how many years will it take before copper is being produced and a revenue stream hits the bottom line?
Just as most of us feel the current valuation does not reflect the value of the assets, that may still be the case after a JV is announced. The very investors who are moaning now about the lack of share price movement, may still be moaning once a JV is announced.
The share price might re rate and we all see a healthy profit but I am not convinced, I thought that would happen when AA came onboard but the share price has gone backwards.
I don't agree that this is Nick's preferred option, I think he wants an outright takeover, a partial sale or a JV, in that order.
As we have all said, it is out of our hands and we will have to see what is the final outcome.

Eimaj616
Up to very recently I would have agreed with you, I have in fact posted previously that the EA would be extended.

If as you say Arc are indeed perfectly happy with AA, they are going to put forward a reasonable deal and Arc have no desire to talk to anyone else, why has Nick declared Tier 1 status before the published results actually prove that?

He has no need to, if everything is going to plan and he believes a good offer will be proposed by AA, say nothing and wait for the results to be released first.

What I suspect now is, during the Investor Call Nick said that he believes the EA increases competitiveness. When he said that I think he would have been fairly confident that by this time most of the drill results would be known to everyone. As we know that isn’t the case, we have still only got the results from two holes and it is looking like we may be well into next year before we have them all.

So as we get to the business end of the EA, Anglo have by default actually got more exclusivity than Arc expected. I am just suggesting that Nick might be a bit concerned about the delay in releasing the results and in an attempt to get the good news out there, he has made the statement that they have a Tier 1 deposit or deposits.

We will probably never know but Nick hasn’t gone from very cautious to making bold predictions without a reason. There is nothing we can do about it, so we will have to wait and see but I wouldn’t be surprised if AA don’t take advantage of the situation and make their move early.

Taking this a little further, put yourelf in Anglo’s shoes.

They have now had time to examine all Arc’s information that they weren’t privy to before signing the EA.
The soil samples have now come back and they have had a chance to examine that data.
This drilling season only has about a month left.
By waiting another three or four months, what will they know then that they don’t know now?
Yes they will have the definitive drill results back from the lab but as they already know Fwiji is good, I think the only additional info they will have is how good Muswema is.
The downside for Anglo is they don’t know how interested their competitors are and as more drill information is in the public domain (provided it is good), the more interested other majors may become and the more it is going to cost them.

The Covid lab delays have really worked in Anglo’s favour by keeping investors and competitors in the dark. The decision they now have is, do they wait until all the results are in for this drilling season and potentially pay more or do they think we have seen enough already and we can save ourselves some money by bidding soon.
As well as potentially saving them money, acting soon may avoid getting into a bidding war.

In addition, if Nick suspects they are close to making a move before all the results are in and he wanted to increase competitiveness, what better way to do that than to jump the gun and publicly say Fwiji is a Tier 1 target.

Just a thought but

If Nick says Fwiji is a Tier 1 asset and Anglo have viewed the same information.
Given even some of our own shareholders don’t believe him.
Newly identified targets at Muswema are being drilled now and Arc and AA will get the initial results before they go off to the lab.
Another Investor Call is being avoided even though we were told they would be held regularly

Taking the above into account, perhaps now would be a good time for AA to make their move.

and with other majors still in the dark about the actual drill results would they risk making a counter bid?

A final comment on this thread

I have been investing for 40 years and I cannot remember anything like what we are currently experiencing.
A global pandemic, enforced lockdowns, furlough schemes, thousands facing unemployment, hundreds of companies going to the wall and the country amassing enormous debt that will have to be repaid. On top of that the Brexit deadline approaching with no deal, a US election where the loser does not accept defeat and the China/US aggression etc etc.
To say all this does not affect the share market is frankly ridiculous. Investors are extra cautious, cash is king and for many companies it is all about survival in the short to medium term.
So yes this is a strange market and that goes some way to explain why potential buyers are cautious even though everything looks good. here.

Anyone who has been invested here for a while will have seen most of the interviews with Nick. The interviewers almost always try and get Nick so say what exactly he thinks they have got in the two licenses.
In the early interviews Nick would say things like “it is still early days” or “we are just scratching the surface” etc and he would not be drawn on what he thought Arc had got.

Recently though, certainly since the Investor Call, his language has changed now saying things like “I believe we are sitting on something very significant” , “this could be very very big”, “the opportunities are massive” and he has now moved onto actually say Tier 1 assets.

Whatever Nick has seen from the initial drill results, it is reasonable to assume that AA have also seen the same information. For Nick to openly say Tier 1 targets he is going to look very stupid if the lab results don’t back that up.
Whatever anyone thinks of Nick he is no fool and I am pretty confident he knows the results will confirm Fwiji is a Tier 1 asset.

Just my opinion and I’m sure others won’t agree but that is how I see it.

Rio
My confidence comes from what we have heard so far. During the Investor Call Nick was genuinely elated and at that time he had seen the initial drill results at Fwiji. He couldn’t say anymore at that time until the results were in but if you remember he passed a question to Vassily about Fwiji and Nick said that Vassily was excited about what he had seen re Fwiji.
We now know that they had found what they had been looking for.

If you look at slide 11 of the November 2020 work programme it shows that Arc have been drilling Muswema since Q2 2020. We know that 10 holes from Fwiji have gone off to the lab and I think some will have gone from Muswema. Now that Nick has seen the initial results from all 10 holes at Fwiji he is openly stating it is a Tier 1 target, what he has seen already confirms that. I suspect the early Muswema drills are also looking good. On top of that following the impressive soil samples at Muswema further targets are now being drilled.

All that convinces me that Fwiji is a Tier 1 target and Muswema looks highly likely to be another, hence why Nick states Tier 1 targets.
Nick is normally very cautious about predictions and he has been all the time he has been at Arc, the very fact that he is stating Tier 1 targets is good enough for me.

A long winded answer but that is why I think all the good news is in the pipeline awaiting release

What I would have expected to happen, in the absence of bad news, was the share price to rise gradually as the exclusivity agreement got ever closer to expiring. With good drill results and a financial transaction looking very likely, I would have expected the pack to arrive.
That is not happening and it appears potential investors want to see the colour of Anglo's money first. If the final outcome is a part sale or a JV then investors may still be able to buy in. However, if the deal is a full takeover the first we might know about it is an RNS suspending the shares pending an Anglo offer. If that is the case then the pack will never arrive as they won't get a chance to buy a ticket.

This weekend we are 4 months into the 6 months exclusivity agreement and the share price is still not doing anything. In my opinion the risks here are now very low for a junior AIM miner, we know we have copper, a very low market cap, in a hot postcode and three majors are circling. Frustrating I know but we are getting ever closer to a financial transaction.
Anglo will put forward a deal, they owned this previously, they have come back to try to get it, there has been no bad news and they have committed resources both in manpower and financially to the project so they will put forward a deal.
How good that deal actually is remains to be seen but they aren't walking away without putting some financial deal forward.
IMO

I'm guessing most people saw this yesterday when the BB was down (AGAIN)

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/middle-east-diamond-resources-takes-over-casa-mining-to-access-drc-gold-deposit-2020-11-09

"The transaction involves more than 100% of the market capitalisation of MEDR and therefore is a reverse listing, which requires shareholder approval.

Chun Can will subscribe for $500 000 worth of shares in MEDR at R1 a share.

The acquisition by MEDR of all the issued shares of and claims against Casa for $15-million will be settled through the issue of 85-million MEDR shares at R1 a share to Arc Minerals as settlement of the loan note between Chun Can and Arc Minerals, as well as the issue of 170-million shares to the buyer at R1 a share, which is the reverse listing element of the transaction.

MEDR will do a capitalisation issue of R1 a share post the rights offer but before the reverse listing, of 85-million shares to MEDR shareholders, assuming the rights offer is fully subscribed for, in the ratio of 247 shares for every 100 shares held after the rights issue.

MEDR plans on changing its company name post the transaction, which is still dependent on approval by at least 65% of shareholders. "

When the presentation was written the share price was 4.05p, market cap £40m or US$51.5m

It has since fallen to 3.4p making the market cap £33.8m or US$44.5m

I know some aren't impressed by Arc's twitter feed re emphasising what has already been said. However, I take them as hints on what the board are currently trying to do and what they think is of interest.
On November 3rd they tweeted
"The work we have completed to date on the Anglo soil assay data have confirmed Muswema as a high priority drill target. We have decided to deploy a rig to Muswema with immediate effect to drill a number of newly identified zones ahead of the rainy season"

We know about hole 5 and that Muswema was fancied as a decent target.

Looking now at the soil sample map, the Tweet is clear; we may have another major target in Zamsort, on top of Fwiji in Zaco.

If Muswema is identified as a major target, on top of Fwiji, then this drilling season will have been a great success and the price AAL or whoever have to pay will have increased significantly.

Looking at slide 10, the soil sample map, you can see why a rig has been quickly deployed to Muswema

If anyone hasn't seen it the presentation has now been uploaded
http://s2.q4cdn.com/256050873/files/doc_presentations/2020/11/201109-Arc-Minerals-Presentation-NOV-2020.pdf

Obviously an updated November presentation coming when Arc download it to the website

Many thanks, Nick using the right language to stress to Anglo that two further majors are interested if they don't come up with a reasonable business transaction.

Ok no problem, I wanted to clarify before responding

@Graham1981 "Thanks for digging that up..... pun intended."
Please explain, I know what a pun is but I would like you to spell out your meaning was please

As I haven’t seen one, I have tried to compile a list of targets by licence area. The numbers in brackets are the original position in Anglo’s top 30 targets (Anglo-Equinox Target Ranking List 1999)
They are in no particular ranking order and the list is there to be shot at if I have made any errors.

ZAMSORT

Kalaba (1)
Mboma (2)
Cheyeza (4)
Cheyeza West
Ngambu (5)
Kalaba ext (6)
Muswema (7)
Muswema South
Chihindi (16)
Lumbeta
Jatuma
Kazozu
West Lunga (not sure if this straddles the boundary between Zamsort & Zaco)

ZACO

Fwiji (3)
Nyambwezu (11)

Personally I think the current share price is artificially low because of Covid, Brexit, the US election etc.
We have got used to these low levels that have not moved despite good news. I think we should be at 6p now, with 981m shares in issue that would give us a market cap of circa £59m
Would Nick & Remy take £100m for the lot, not a chance. Nick said something very very big, if that is right it will be multiples of that.
I think 16p to 20p takeover would be a good figure for both sides, any cheaper and we may attract bids from elsewhere.