Member Info for Small_Holding

Tomorrow Arc will have been drilling for four months.
That is a lot of holes and one day we may find out if there is copper in any of them.....................

It will still be very interesting to hear what NvS says at Junior Indaba, we are getting silence at the moment so it will be good to see if he is still as bullish about the prospects.

When the drilling results eventually come out it will be interesting to see if they are just for the first three holes from Fwiji. They should be because they were the first batch sent off before the investor call. If we get results for more than three holes then they have they have been witheld for whatever reason.

To my mind there is absolutely no doubt that AA will put forward some sort of business transaction, the big question is will their valuation come close to the Arc board's valuation.
Just my view but I think Nick and Remy have big numbers in mind and I don't think AA will offer enough, that would open it up to other players and it could be the Chinese who eventually get it.

The current valuation of Arc is ridiculously low given the assets they have. I am pretty sure on the Crux Investor interview Nick said that Cheyza East on its own was worth the current market cap, with everything else thrown in for nothing.

If you start from a base point that is so low, it is easy to see that this will realise many multiples of the current share price. On the same interview Nick said that it could be a 10 bagger or even a 20 bagger.
Taking into account the number of shares fully diluted, my guess is 16p a share for a full sale.

It is in Arc's interest to get the drill results in the public domain. The more people that know the drill results, assuming they are good, the better.
Conversely if AA are looking to do a deal quickly they won't want them released. It is human nature they will want to get the assets for as low a price as possible, in their shoes we would as well.
If AA can table a bid before the results are published it decreases the chances of a counter bid from another major. As other majors are not getting access to the data room they are relying on the hype the same as us.

If Arc has price sensitive information, like positive drill results, they should release it to the market. Something has gone wrong and it is probably broken promises from the lab that made Nick say shortly and then not deliver.

I see the soil samples differently because AA paid for them. I think for that reason they will get the results and Nick is waiting on them to release them to him, hence the second delay on imminently.

Drilling days: 116
Drilling results: Nil
Keep the faith they are expected shortly

The last customer in Morocco signed up February/March 2019, since then absolutely nothing in the way of new customers.
MR hinted that they had something in mind, well it is time we found out what.
If he can't produce more customers in Morocco cut back on exploration and save cash.

Yes the copper price is doing extremely well but is the Arc share price rising with it?
No, It is still nailed to 4p

IMO the Covid excuse for the delay in delivering the initial drill results at Fwiji is starting to stretch credibility. I say that for the following reasons;

1. During the Investor call (22/07/2020) it was clear the results had gone off to the lab. No mention was made that there was any delay at the lab because of Covid. On the contrary, Nick said that Zambia wasn't greatly affected at that time.

2. I don't know if the lab shuts during the rainy season. Assuming it does it is fair to assume they would process that seasons samples before closing. If it does stay open their workload would be greatly reduced. Either way they should start the drilling season without a backlog.

3. On the 21st September in the drilling and assay update we were told that "the laboratory has indicated the results should be with the Company shortly."

Either the laboratory has been given a far larger workload this season or their workforce has been decimated by Covid, those are the only credible explanations for a three month timescale.
I have up to this point not believed that AA are causing the delay in releasing the results but, as someone said on here a few days ago, something just doesn't smell right.

One thing is certain if this is going to be the length of the delay for all this seasons drill results, then Arc or AA out to look at other options for processing the samples.

As Anglo paid for all the soil sample analysis the results will have gone to them. I am presuming they have them already and have told Nick he can release them in a few days, hence the "imminent" announcement.

I am sure the soil samples will show some good readings and possibly identify new drilling targets but I don't expect the results to give the share price much of a lift. For that we need the first drilling results from Fwiji and they can't surely be far away now.

I'm not greedy but an RNS with something like "Bonanza Copper" would do.

And for anyone wavering

Believe - Cher
Don't Give Up - Peter Gabriel & Kate Bush

1. Opportunities (Let's make lots of money) - Pet Shop Boys
2. I'm Still Waiting - Dianna Ross
3. When Tomorrow Comes - Eurythmics
4. Down Down - Status Quo
5. Brass in Pocket - Pretenders

(Drilling day number 110)

One hasn't been scheduled but I expect it is likely after the drilling results eventually come through. NvS did say they would have them regularly as this would be a time of regular news LOL

Just thinking that through, if would probably be advantageous to Arc to put an offer on one or other of the licenses to a vote because that gives a delay and allows other interested parties to put in a counter bid, whilst the AA vote is taking place.

Maybe a question at the next investor call

I appreciate with a full takeover of Arc shareholders would be given a vote as to whether they accept the offer or not.

With every other scenario of a JV, sale of one or other of the two licenses or a partial sale of one of the two licenses I don't think a vote would be required. Perhaps if it was an outright sale of or or other of the two licenses the board may give a vote to shareholders, even if they aren't legally required to do so.

Come the rainy season we will all miss the excitement of the constant newsflow through the drilling season...........
I hope the second half of the exclusivity agreement gives us a bit more excitement.

i know extending has always been an option but, as no money changed hands on this agreement, I believed it to be something that would involve a conversation between both parties and they would both agree to extend or terminate the agreement.
A right to extend suggests this is something contractual that has already been agreed and Arc doesn't have a say in.

I see that Anglo have a right to extend the exclusivity agreement, I was a bit surprised by that. I presume that this is because Anglo are spending a significant amount on Arc during this due diligence period and wanted something in writing to ensure they could extend the period.

Three things from the Chairman's statement
1. Obviously imminently sounds good for the soil samples.
2. I didn't realise that the Zaco licence area is bigger than the Zamsort area, for some reason probably the maps, I thought Zamsort was a lot bigger.
3. This sounds good regarding other interested parties "we have continued to have a number of discussions with major diversified mining groups."