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Wow impressive, you can almost sense Nick's frustration at not having the results to give us.

Witholding drill results does not benefit Arc at all, they want to pile the pressure on Anglo outlining exactly what has been found. With no results yet to give us this is the next best thing they have available.

@ChrisTmoc - Anglo have a right to extend the EA and this must have formed part of the original agreement.
"may result in an extension of the exclusivity and the negotiation of a commercial transaction. "

My take on this is, if Arc have given Anglo the right to extend as part of the initial EA I think that would only have been agreed to if AA undertake to put forward a deal at that stage. That is no commitment to put forward a deal, no extension.
This is purely my view but I can't see why Arc would give them a right to extend otherwise.
As you point out it could be just a waste of time if they are not committed.

Money changing hands has never been mentioned in relation to the actual EA or possible extension, although Anglo have paid for soil sample analysis etc.

As you rightly point out

“The in situ value of Cu in the ground at CE is increasing massively”

As the price of copper continues to rise, the market cap of Arc has continued to fall.
This is the exact opposite of what you would expect, as surely the investment case for buying gets ever more compelling.

I think the only logical conclusion to draw from that, rightly or wrongly, is that the market believes the involvement of Anglo American is seen as a negative thing.

For that to be the case the market must believe that AA are going to get Arc on the cheap or agree a deal that is not particularly favourable to Arc investors.
The lack of results being released adds to the uncertainty and reinforces that opinion.

This is definitely not my view but I think it is the only reasonable explanation for the lack of current appetite for Arc shares.

Rule 11 of the AIM Rules contains the rule on disclosure of price sensitive information and requires an AIM company to make an announcement without delay of any new developments that are not public knowledge and which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its shares.

Drill results positive or negative are covered by Rule 11 as far as I am concerned and should be released asap. Some investors here believe that by signing an EA it allows you to basically ignore AIM rules if it suits you.
I don’t think that is the case and I cannot see how it could be part of an exclusivity agreement. Yes AA get access to all the information that Arc hold but I don’t believe they can insist Arc stop or delay the release of price sensitive information.

I think Nick and the BOD are just as frustrated as we are at the length of time we are all having to wait for the lab results.

The latest presentation mentions Tier 1 three times

“Tier-one copper asset in Zambia”
“Multiple Tier 1 targets identified”
“Multiple Tier-1 copper assets in Zambia”

Having been invested here since Nick arrived I don’t believe he would put his name to that if he wasn’t certain the actual drill results will confirm this.
Time will tell if I have been wrong to put my faith in him.

Yes, core samples to follow, means he has seen them. Join the dots

Dropping hints again via Twitter, Muswema looks good!

Thanks, I stand corrected. Good to get another one at last but as you say the AFZ may produce more customers eventually but you would assume they have approached everyone already there.

From the latest presentation
"Currently eight customers use SDX’s sole supply of gas to AFZ."
The last new customer signed up February/March 2019.

Enlighten me who is the new customer in Morocco?

Talk is cheap from any company and it is very easy to say we are screening business development opportunities, it costs nothing and possibly takes a bit of the heat off.
SDX need an acquisition to boost the business, no new customers in Morocco and income is capped from SD unless they increase capacity.
The big question now is how do they pay for one?
Clearly they are not generating enough cash to self fund as these results show, I would argue that getting a loan might prove difficult when even between drilling campaigns they aren't banking cash, that would mean the issue of equity if the two cornerstone investors can stomach it.

Do they really want to put more into an investment that has already seen their initial investment halved?

Just to add on the day that article was printed the copper price was $2.18, at the time of writing it is $3.23

I know this article dates back to March 2020 but the Alicanto Chief Exec's comments are still relevant.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/where-are-the-next-generation-of-tier-1-copper-mines-coming-from-explorers-thats-who/

“As an explorer, sentiment is still important, but we are not overly affected by the copper price today,” Alicanto chief exec Peter George told Stockhead.
“But longer term — where are the next copper projects coming from? The answer is that they are going to come from exploration companies like Alicanto.”
Low copper prices for much of the last decade means there has been very little investment in new projects, George says.

“The fundamentals for copper have not really changed,” he says.
“We are rapidly approaching a supply and demand divergence, where the amount of copper being produced is going to be far outstripped by demand.”
Another issue is that the big miners have, until recently, relied on smaller explorers to go out and find the next tier 1 deposits, George says.
“For example, Sweden had some of the largest copper mines deposits in the world [at one point], but there haven’t been any new discoveries for decades,” he says.

“There’s been no desire by the big guys to get out there and find more copper deposits.

“Now all of a sudden, these major miners are asking ‘where’s our future supply going to come from?’”

Sell the Zaco licence to Anglo (which is mainly Tier 1? Fwiji at present)
Retain some funds to drill Zamsort properly before eventual sale
Pay a Special Dividend to shareholders.

Job sorted

Selling Morocco is an interesting idea and as we are getting closer to two years without a single new customer, why not.
Unfortunately though I can't see them admitting defeat and selling.

With 2020 Capex still predicted to be $26.2m and $21.8 already accounted for, in Q4 there is still $4.4m to be accounted for.

As they only accounted for $2.4m in Q3 that is an additional $2m. I thought Q4 was going to be the best quarter of 2020 but now I think it will be more of the same.

The elephant in the room is the lack of new customers in Morocco and they seem unable to address that problem. Will today's 2 hour presentation cover that topic, I don't think so. It will be all about exciting drilling prospects at the end of next year which, if successful, could add revenue in two years time.

H1 Capex expenditure $19.4m, after 9 monts $21.8m
H1 Cash $9.3m, after 9 months $9.9m

If this is the period between expensive drilling campaigns when cash reserves are replenished, it doesn't seem to be happening.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't see anything here that is going to lift the share price

oops

Anglo will definitely put forward a financial proposition

Firstly, as I have previously said Arc will definitely put forward a financial proposition.

Some shareholders seem scared in case AA walk away, that doesn’t bother me because they have served their purpose (a major who previously owned these licenses has come back to try and buy) in so much they have put a for sale sign in front of the Arc head office

For Arc to reject AA, especially if AA propose a JV on poor terms is not a bad thing.

The AA effect on the Arc share price has been non existent, if they go tomorrow will it hit the share price?
Who knows but it hasn’t exploded since they came onboard. Had we seen a major re rating since Anglo signed the EA I would have expected a comparable drop or worse once they left. With absolutely nothing gained there isn’t a great deal to lose.

Arc have a market cap of only £35m

Arc have 14 targets in the right location, location, location.

For the majors, how many licences like this are left, at a relatively low purchase price in the right region of Africa?

Bangkok Blue, I think I’ve seen the movie………….

After yesterday's positive move the legendary Arc share price slow puncture is back.

Today's results

Drilling days 142
Drill hole results 2