Member Info for Small_Holding

Good to see a blue day for a change.
4.7m shares traded today out of 980.7m shares in issue. That is only 0.5% of the shares in issue and the share price rises 6%.
When the serious buyers come, and they will, it shows how the share price could react.

Looking again at F79's now legendary email, regarding the first two questions

"1. We are still within the six month exclusivity period with Anglo?
NvS confirmed: 'We are effectively in the 2nd 6month period'
2. When does the exclusivity end, is it Jan 14th (six months from the announcement)?
NvS did not answer"

NvS does not say we are in the 2nd 6 month period, he says we are "effectively" in the 2nd 6 month period.

Effectively meaning: practically, virtually, in effect, all but or more or less

On the second question when pressed for the new expiry date he doesn't answer.

I think we can take that to mean that we are "all but" in the 2nd 6 month extension it just hasn't been officially announced yet as the current EA hasn't expired.
He then goes on to say " Anglo have the right to extend further 6 months which they have done"
AAL have told Arc that they want to take up the extension but again, it has not officially been announced.

If that is the case we will get an RNS before or on the 14th giving the full details and the new expiry.
We have been waiting for the catalyst to re rate the share and this RNS, if we gt it, might be the moment when the market finally wakes up to the fact AAL are committed to a deal
All IMO

I think you miss the point Graham, Nick shouldn't be giving information to shareholders by email that is not in the public domain

Peggy you are right this shouldn't end up in a public forum. Lets face it news has been scarce and all we want is clarity about when a fairly restrictive EA finally expires. Even after all the debate on here regarding the situation we still do not have anything in black and white from the company giving the exact length of the extension or when it finally expires.
We are still relying on anonymous posters who have had, or allege to have had, correspondence with the company.
That is not having a go at anyone but it just isn't good enough and it is a situation they could have avoided by giving clarity on their December 7th Anglo American Update RNS.

The most annoying part of this is the depressed share price. If Nick had put out a proper RNS stating Anglo have confimed they will be extending the EA for a further 6 months until 14th August 2021, this may have been the catalyst that finally convinced observers to buy. The way he has handled it has just caused confusion and the opportunity may have been missed.

F79 thanks for that
I am amazed that the EA has been extended a further 6 months and nowhere have Arc published the new expiry date. We presumably have to guess how long the extension runs for.
I was livid when I read your post and have immediately written to Nick to tell him he has handled it very badly and he should clarify the position.
I have no reason to doubt your post, so to Ortus and Co who have been saying the EA has already been extended you were right it appears and I stand corrected.
I thought Nick was effcient but this is just very poor, no mention anwhere of the new expiry date, not impressed

I agree almost entirely with everything you have said apart from “I'm personally in no real rush.”
I have had some success with shares previously but nothing major, I have also had a lot of turkeys over the years. Almost all of those companies have said jam tomorrow and never delivered.
My major frustration here is despite Nick saying we have multiple Tier 1’s the released results do not reflect that. I am hoping the big results are already in the pipeline and in the fullness of time they will be released.

I would prefer to see a bidding war and that won’t happen, at the moment, unless we get a takeover offer that requires a shareholder vote.
The potential is obvious and I would prefer it to be an open auction after an AAL offer. My personal hope is that a year from now Arc Minerals ceases to exist because it has been taken over by a mining major or a Chinese consortium.
That would give us a great result, possibly not as big as some might hope for but I think it all depends on your age and when you want to cash in your chips

Ortus
"As such I don't believe the company see's the need to make any announcements at the end of the original 6 month period, since the RNS's of 14th July and 7th December cover this already."
That is just plain wrong, if what you state is correct the Exclusivity Agreement is already extended and can run for an indefinite period. It seems strange that both parties entered into this agreement with a definite timeline and expiry date but now you think it can just run and run.
I will be very pleased when we get a statement from Arc before or on the 14th January to clarify the situation.

What will happen is one of four things

1. We will be notified that the EA has been extended for 3 or 6 months and a business transaction will then be proposed at some point by AAL
2. A deal will be announced by RNS before January 14th, assuming it is a JV.
3. The share will be suspended, in which case a full takeover offer will be proposed before the 14th.
or
4. The EA will expire on January 14th and both parties will walk away from the agreement.

We don't have long to wait now and we will see what you say when you are shown to be wrong.
If I am wrong and the EA has already been altered and extended to run indefinitely I will of course apologise and post here that you were right.

All that discussion about an extension and then Nick gave us one!

Only one document has been signed by both parties, that runs for 6 months and expires on 14th january 2021, that was the case on day one and is still the case today. If the expiry date has not changed, it has not been extended yet.

The Exclusivity Agreement expires on 14th January 2021. Whilst that seems some time away, in reality with the Christmas shutdown businesses will not be back at work properly until Tuesday January 5th. That means we have three days this week and eight business days after the New Year. Eleven business days to put forward a deal or extend the current EA.

Tomorrow AAL have had two weeks to complete their DD on Zaco and Zamsort, surely enough time to do checks on two small companies and their licenses.
With time running out I hope we get some news this week, either a deal or at least notification that the EA deadline will be extended.

If anyone is feeling nervous

Nick is now 58 and he will never get another chance like this in his career to boost his pension fund and take care of his family financially.
He currently has exposure to 51m shares in Arc through his shareholding, options and warrants. If the share price rises there is no reason why he won’t take up his options and exercise his warrants. With all that skin in the game where he to sell Arc to a major miner, he would personally get £500,000 gross for every extra penny he could sell Arc for.
Spare a thought for poor Remy, he only has exposure to 37.5m shares, through shares, options and warrants, so he only gets £375,000 gross for every extra penny.

I would suggest that is a good enough reason why Nick and Remy won’t give up control of the company unless we are all handsomely rewarded.

If you take that a bit further, when the EA was signed the clear impression was that if an extension went ahead it would be to negotiate a deal. If that is seen as a clear signal to the market there could then be a re rating of the share price.
AAL haven't done that they have just moved to doing DD, that keeps the uncertainty there and can give them an opportunity to get a deal done whilst the share price is still low.

I would just add either option means gains to shareholders but it does make sense for AAL to make their move sooner rather than later.

I also don't think AAL are manipulating the share price to keep it artificially low but lady luck has smiled on them so far.
The Covid lab delays have meant that the full drilling season results, that would now normally be in and released, have been delayed. Nick is trying to convince the market that we have Tier 1's but the market wants to see the results to back that up.
This has all kept the share price artificially low and that obviously suits AAL not Arc.

The original timeline suggested was a six month EA then a possible extension to negotiate a deal. AAL seem to be moving faster than that timeline and why wouldn't they. A depressed share price might give them an extra 5% of the company for the same outlay under a JV.
If it was a full takeover then the current share price doesn't matter as much because it would be a bid based on the perceived assets.
Whilst AAL might have initially preferred a JV, the low share price might encourage them to attempt a full takeover.

Under both scenarios moving a bit faster could potentially give them a slightly larger slice of the company under a JV or possible mean the takeover bid might be lower than it would have been.
At least with a takeover it would go to a shareholder vote and not only do we all have our say on that, crucially other players could then enter a counter bid.

The low share price is a concern because in the event of a JV, with a low market cap, AAL would expect a greater percentage of Arc for an investment that might be 50% of the current market cap.
I agree that if a subdued share price means AAL arguing for a bigger stake, I just hope Nick will just thank them for the offer and look elsewhere.

Still annoying that on the day they announced drilling had commenced (Oct 5th) the share price was .60p and after this positive result it is still only 0.61p.
I wasn't expecting fireworks but I did expect the share price to at least be above the pre drill price.

No extension to the EA mentioned and DD on two small companies that only own one asset each, as far as I am aware, shouldn't take more than a week.

When the drilling campaign started June 29th the RNS said
"Follow up work at a number of the other target areas, including Cheyeza East and Muswema, is currently underway."

The results we got yesterday are the very early drill holes, it was only after the soil sample analysis paid for by Anglo that a rig was sent elsewhere at Muswema. These will be the results we want to see not the early ones when they were not in the optimum area.

If we are looking at a JV with Anglo, the share price is relevant in the calculation and that is why Nick is trying to boost it.

Voisey’s Bay has been mentioned previously as a model that Arc may follow for a JV, a major takes a stake then it becomes a bidding war later down the line.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-story-of-voiseys-bay-the-auction-part-2-of-3/

In March 1995 Diamond Fields (Voisey’s bay) was valued at $24 a share, in April 1995 Teck invested $108m for 10%, the equivalent of $36 a share or 150% of the then share price, a bidding war followed

I get the impression here that Nick is trying very hard to talk the share price up, the delay in getting drill results has gone against him.

With the delay in getting assay results Nick uncharacteristically put out the presentation announcing multiple Tier 1 assets. Many said why is he declaring this but results haven’t yet backed him up. The Twitter feed has carried many re posts of things said by Nick and Remy, shortly imminently, a busy period of reporting, all geared to excite shareholders but unfortunately the lab has let him down.

Today’s RNS regurgitated the two best holes from the Oct 30th RNS, they didn’t do that last year so why this year?

I think the deal is close and the price Anglo will invest in will be partly related to the current share price, Nick may be very frustrated at the share price but if a suitor says we will pay 150% or 200% of the current share price it must be hard to argue against it, even though you know it is pathetic.

Everything still looking very good but just giving my view of what is going on
AIMO

The best two are the two holes reported Oct 30th which they have repeated on this RNS.