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What all the calculations do show is the massive difference a higher copper price makes to the bottom line.
As the copper price gets ever nearer to $4 the valaution of Arc's assets increases with it, the share price might not show it yet but that value will out eventually, that is why Arc keep tweeting media articles highlighting the soaring copper price

A great Investor Conference Call yesterday. The big news is the new plant project at Cheyeza, they are undertaking a scoping study in the next couple of months and it should be in production next year.
Capex $5-10m financed at a local level. The plant will produce revenue of circa $45 -$50m a year and cash flow of circa $35m.
No drilling or blasting required just earth moving. In discussions about an off-take deal.
NvS - A game changer for Arc and gives optionality at a crucial point.

From the latest presentation - Study modelled on a 3,000 t/d processing plant for
both projects at a $6,500/t copper price (copper price now around $8,400/t)

There has been a lot of talk about values for Arc but if we just consider the value of Cheyeza alone. With a plant in production next year generating $35m cash flow, what value would you place on Cheyeza?
I would suggest multiples of the current Arc market cap of £60m

F79 excellent post
'Imo, the only reason an AA deal won't happen is if they don't offer a good enough deal and NvS declines. Beyond that, given tech and corporate due diligence was completed before they announced they were going to sit at the table to try work out a commercial transaction'
Couldn't agree more and I'm sure Nick won't agree to a deal that doesn't benefit shareholders. If Anglo don't offer acceptable terms and Arc walk away, the market may not like it initially but I'm sure other majors are waiting in the wings.
That said, I expect them to offer what they consider to be reasonable terms but whether those terms are acceptable to Arc remains to be seen.

It is good that we are getting an investor call on Monday, after all these months of near silence it will be interesting to hear what Nick has to say.
I'm not expecting an RNS before the call because if he had price sensitive information at the time the IC was announced he should have released it then.
I hope we finally get clarity on last years drilling programme, how many holes were drilled in total, how many results are outstanding from the lab and if the lab is working at full capacity, reduced capacity or if it is currently closed. I have asked these questions by email and hopefully we get clarification, at least we will know if we are waiting for results that aren't coming.
With regard to the JV I am expecting Nick to continue to say he cannot elaborate but perhaps that discussions are at an advanced stage. The mere fact that he has called an IC suggests we are getting to the business end now.

@tom111
If you think we have had all the drilling results from last season you are very much mistaken, we have Fwiji and Muswema results to come. The truth is we don't know how many drill results are still outstanding

Uncertainty about the drilling results could be clarified by NvS. Existing shareholders, potential shareholders and potential suitors all want to see the drilling results.
They announce the drilling campaign with a fanfare but then we get silence on progress. An update from Arc would reassure everyone that the results are coming. How many holes were drilled in the last campaign at each site, how many drill results are we waiting on and what is the situation at the lab. Is it closed, working but to a limited capacity or is it working normally?
All this could be clarified in an Operational Update that has nothing to do with the EA.
Silence just fuels uncertainty that Arc cannot release the results without Anglo's permission, not something I believe but obviously others do.

Yes Muswema is definitely the star, I'm expecting Fwiji drill results first and by the sound of it however good they are Muswema should be even better.

Just as comment on the TR1 form, I think they are confusing.
'Reason for the notification: An acquisition or disposal of voting rights X'

Why not have two boxes one for acquisition and one for disposal, you can then see instantly which one it is.
This one is straightforward but sometimes I have to look at it a couple of times to see whether they have increased or decreased their holding.

Karl-Erik von Bahr 7%
Mumena Mushinge 6%
Lärarnas Riksförbund 6%
Hargreave Hale ltd 5%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyYvXH0RfEc
Mention 10 minutes in with a 10p target

I agree AAL will have a very good idea what they have already, I just want the good news out there for any other potential suitors, in case they do go for an outright T/O.
Exciting times now anyway. As regards the current market cap, just my view but I think we are now nearer the level we should have been before this weeks announcement, still cheap!

I may be reading more into it but when Nick puts out a presentation mentioing Tier 1 several times I think we have some good results to come. That would have to be viewed positively by the market and the higher the share price goes the more AAL will have to pay. The share price at the time of the deal will matter as it will be a factor in any JV calculation, so the higher the share price goes before then the better.

After the last three days a set of good results next week and this could fly again. As someone said it doesn't appear to be institutional buying yet but impressive drill results could be what they are waiting for.
So to answer your question I would release them asap if possible.
Fantastic week by the way, everyone must now be far more relaxed!

We still have loads of last seasons drilling results to come, some of which must be good given the last presentation.

Even though we are still in an EA I don't see why we can't have an Operational Update telling us how many holes were drilled last year, how many are outstanding and what the current situation is with the testing lab, is it still operating or has it been shut down by Covid?

What we need now is juicy drill results to really confirm Tier 1 status. It may benefit shareholders if the talks take a couple of months, let's get the results out there that justify the last presentation, multiple Tier 1's

Yes it is fantastic news I was just making the point to a group of posters on here who have argued strongly that we have been in an extension from the December update, which clearly we haven't.

Hallelujah, the company finally announce that an extension to the Exclusivity Agreement has been agreed.
The formal notice was signed January 6th 2021 so we cannot have been in an extension in December.

Frustrating as it is, if we are still some way from a deal it gives Arc time to get more drill results released which surely must be a good thing, especially if they confirm Tier 1.

Not quite the RNS I was hoping for but it does at least strengthen their financial position ahead of the negotiations

After a very long and boring six months of the EA, things should be about to change.
The current EA expires on Thursday 14th January and, if Anglo wants to take advantage of the low share price, this is the week to make an offer.
We may also see increased speculative buying ahead of the deadline.

Whatever happens we will get an RNS this week officially notifying the extended EA deadline and that will finally give us a definite commitment from Anglo that an offer is coming.