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During the latest IC Vassily said some of the 18 deep drill holes were in areas not drilled before, he mentioned one NW of Cheyeza. Just looking at that map there appears to be a red/orange dot in that area that may well be the target he refers to.

When the EA was signed 10 months ago today, it came with an agreed extension if Anglo wanted to negotiate a commercial transaction.
That is reasonable but it would have been ridiculous if there was an extra clause to say, if Anglo can’t make their mind up it can be extended again.

It is therefore my view that the original EA expires in two months, if Anglo have not tabled an acceptable offer by then they would have to ask Arc for a further extension.

I would hope, at that point, NvS would say no and then start talking to other potential suitors.

Anglo from the outset knew they had a further six months to deliberate and they have made the most of that. However, with only two months left they cannot be sure that Arc will allow them to delay any longer. With only two months left of the EA to run I expect Anglo to put forward a deal within the next month.

Just my view but I don’t think they will risk last minute negotiations, even if talks have been good so far.

If it is Arc’s plan to maximise the value of all the targets on both licences, surely they need to hold on to Cheyeza.

If Cheyeza is a low cost, cash generating asset that can be brought online quickly to help fund further drilling at other targets, it makes sense to do a JV or partial sale of other targets like Fwiji or Muswema and keep control of Cheyeza.

For anyone who didn't get to hear the IC, regarding demand for copper NvS mentioned the proposed investment in infrastructure by President Biden.

Specifically he said that each electric charging station requires 8kg of copper.

It is incredibly frustrating that the share price still sits at this low level.

Some will say that we still haven’t hit the big deposits. Yet Arc put out presentations saying we have multiple Tier 1 targets and on a previous interview NvS said he was on holiday when he received a phone from a contact at a major saying these were the best results to come out of Africa in years.

A year ago some of our targets may have been deemed uneconomic but with a 100% rise in the copper price, some of those may now be included in our commercial targets.

Yesterday’s CC told us that the proposed plant at Cheyeza will, at today’s copper prices, generate $55m of revenue a year, giving circa $35m free cash flow.
Cheyeza is by area our largest target and should be in production for quite a few years.

At the time of writing Arc’s market cap is circa £71m or $100m

As others have stated previously we do not own the full Zamsort licence, I believe it to be 72%. Our share of the predicted free cash flow is therefore $35m x 72% = $25.2m

If Arc was just Cheyeza, is a market cap of $100m unrealistic for a company with a potential to generate $25m free cash flow a year?
Yes they aren't yet producing that figure but that is excluding Fwiji, Muswema, Lambeta etc, thought to be our best targets

It is drilling at Fwiji/Cheyeza East I made notes at the time

F29 I agree with your assessment, the 're organising our licenses in light of a commercial transaction' was the big takeaway from the CC for me. As you say split Zamsort and we keep CE, with a JV or partial sale of part of the licence.
At least we now know a full takeover by Anglo is not going to happen.

It is all about who has overall control of these two large licences.

The majority on here I think would say a JV is more likely. If that is the case it has to be under a New Company, jointly owned by all three partners.

If Anglo want the lot, then fine let them buy it at a good price.

If they want a JV don’t give them a JV on everything and definitely (spelt correctly, I’m not H’s little brother SH) don’t give them a stake in the parent company.
Do a JV on certain assets or a licence and set up a New Company to do so, that way Arc still has control of the remaining assets.
NvS and Remy have given potential values of Arc ranging from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. It depends on what they have and when they sell out.

If Anglo don’t have the stomach to buy the lot, then only give them a stake in a few of the assets or one licence. Keep the rest until it is drilled out and then see what it is worth.

I think NvS and Remy are too astute to lose control of the whole company until a good price is obtained. Just my opinion but if a price is offered that is not considered fair I think they may do a JV on only one licence.
NvS has said previously it is advantageous having two licences, held by different companies, because it makes it easier to potentially split them and do a deal on one or the other.

Many have given their estimates of the total value of Arc, my question to you is what price would NvS and Remy take to walk away now?

Only a few hours now before the CC………….

Given we already own the copper, we have such a large acreage with around 14 targets, we have an exclusivity agreement with a major and the copper price has doubled in a year, I find it amazing that Arc has a market cap of only circa £68m and you can still buy these at just over 6p.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/948228/major-mining-companies-and-juniors-alike-look-set-to-benefit-as-copper-passes-its-ten-year-high-and-shows-little-sign-of-stopping-948228.html

This is the year we should see impressive copper results, if they are there.
Initially Arc only tested selected soil samples to cut down on cost.
Anglo have now paid to have all the old soil samples tested.
This brought Muswema back up the pecking order.
They are undertaking an aerial survey to identify the best targets
Anglo's people will have analysed all the data to determine where they believe Arc should drill
and they are drilling at depth for the first time.

If we do indeed have multiple Tier 1 deposits we should see some good results this year.

Well I wanted an Investor Call for clarification and we have got one
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ARCM/investor-conference-call/14956647

Just my view on where we are and I’m sure others will disagree.

We seemed to have hit a good point where the share price was rising steadily and investors were waking up to the potential here.

Then out of the blue we get a fund raise almost immediately after saying they were funded for the next two years. Not surprisingly this hit the share price but, as I said at the time, NvS knew the effect this would have on the share price. For reasons we don’t know he thought this was a risk worth taking.
We can all guess what his rationale was, my guess is it was a great deal at a fantastic price, he had to act quickly and did not want to use funds already committed for drilling etc.

Whatever the reasons why NvS did this U turn, I think that is why some investors are now cautious now about believing what he says and I can understand that.
I think that is why the share price continues to hover at these levels.
Does the current low share price bother NvS/Remy? I have to presume that it doesn’t

CEO/EC’s usually say they can do nothing about the share price and normally I would agree. In this instance the U turn has affected confidence and the share price. This is a situation caused by NvS and if it is an issue he should deal with it.
Given that over a month has passed since that RNS and we have not had an Investor Call, suggests to me that they are not overly concerned about the current share price.

Going against that Arc continue to tweet positive comments about the copper price, intended in my view to boost or support the share price, if that is not their intention what is the point?
We were also previously getting regular regurgitated positive quotes on the twitter feed, again I would say with the intention of bolstering the share price.

The purchase of a stake in Alvis, says to me Arc Minerals will continue to exist after the Anglo deal. That supports a JV or a sale of one or other licence to Anglo.
I just can’t see why a company in the throws of a buyout/takeover would be bothered in buying another asset in a different jurisdiction, given they may not exist in a few months time.

I think we all know the wheels are turning and that Arc are working hard towards a deal but it is frustrating, we are getting close to 300 days of EA and still Anglo ponder their options.
One day our RNS will come.............

AIMO

Gallmat - Yes
longfell - As far as I'm aware they didn't say but I would presume that is the gross figure before it is divided up.

Yes it was but they had already completed the Concept Study at that point using $6,500/t.
If you use the actual copper price at the time of the CC, the price of copper has risen 16%.
This was my original calculation but then I saw the CS had been completed using a very conservative figure it makes the increase in potential revenues even more impressive

Just to add Arc's current market cap is circa £71m or just under USD100m

During the CC 15/02/2021 Remy spoke of the financials for the proposed plant at Cheyeza East. He said (9 mins in) that at current prices the plant would generate between USD $45m to $50m of revenue, giving free cash flow of around USD $25m.
The study was completed using a $6,500/t copper price (from the latest presentation)

The copper price closing price yesterday was $9,758/t almost exactly 50% higher

The costs will not have changed significantly in the two months that has elapsed since the CC.
The proposed plant will now generate USD $90m to $100m of revenue, giving free cash flow of USD $50m

That is an extra USD$25m free cash flow a year going forward.

Is the copper price relevant? I think it is

Pardon the pun but the drilling turns the screw on Anglo.
If Arc drill and find a large deposit of copper, the price Anglo will have to pay will shoot up and more potential suitors will be interested.
The drilling is for Arc's benefit but it may also focus Anglo's attention to getting a deal done before good results are announced

The endless waiting is difficult and I can fully understand why some investors are frustrated. Lockdown has not helped, the nine months we have been waiting for a decision seems more like eighteen because we have been locked up for most of it.

The amount of money you having riding on it adds to the stress and I think there are quite a few of us in the one million plus club, shares that is. At least we are more than half way through the extension period and I agree with others that it won’t be extended again, roll on the drilling season!

During the last Conference Call NvS was asked when the extended EA expired. He did not know exactly so he threw the question over to Remy who also did not know. Rightly or wrongly I took this as an indication that the expiry date was not that important to either of them, as they both thought the matter would be resolved by then.