Member Info for SloppyG

Sensational RNS for sure + 2 good interviews.

The key for me is the downstream SPG as Mike said this is essentially why the NPV has doubled.

Looking at the Capex $130m for the mine (P1 + P2) drives circa $500m NPV and the P3 capex of $30m unlocks another $500m of NPV so it's clear how critical the downstream SPG element is to the business model. These are the sort of metrics potential investors/acquirors will be looking at in terms of the associated risks of delivering P3 and how they can be involved with the entire project etc.

I am sure Uganda Gov will be taking note of these numbers as well given they have no direct Royalty so will be good to get a strategic partner like DFC/AFC involved asap to further strengthen Bres' hand.

Anyway €1BN NPV with jorc uplift to come is beyond most of our expectations so just need to sit tight for a while now and see how this plays out. Exciting times but still think a bigger fish takes this on in due course to expedite the project phases.

It's interesting the Prospectus which was published just after the corp presentation was updated has different timescales and volumes although still mightily impressive and broadly similar. Particularly interested to see what this spg plant in P1 is all about as I suspect it is an interim plant nearby and different from the main downstream plant planned in Gulu for P3 given that will presumably involve land aquisition, permitting, logistics etc Anyway looking forward to a headline grabbing NPV Monday morning (hopefully !)

The production profile within the DFS considers several distinct phases of production:

Phase Production Timeline

1 initial production of up to 20,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of Target early 2027

graphite concentrates and 1,000 tonnes of SPG

2 ramp up to 60,000 tpa of graphite as concentrates Mid-2028

3 building a downstream beneficiation near Gulu to produce TBC

10,000 tpa uncoated SPG

4 further ramping up of both Orom-Cross and the SPG facility TBC

to build scale

Agree LW they are some seriously punchy statements to only come in broadly flat !

Agree sensible to manage expectations but I think the market would be disappointed with c$500m NPV especially following MR's "smash out the park" comment. He would look a tad foolish !

I am working on the very broad assumption that moving to NPV10 takes c$125m off a 14 year $500m project so new base case is c$375m. It is then very difficult to ascertain what the impact of the SPG plant and other variables will have but I would be surprised if we are not nudging towards 700m given the materiality of the downstream processing.

Where I am more cautious than others is the value the market and any prospective buyers will initially attribute to P3 and beyond (P1 funding only unlocks a small proportion of the overall NPV). There are significant risks attached to achieving that P3 goal so if I was a potential suitor I would not be pricing that in fully but more treating it as the cherry on top. It will be interesting to see if Bres split out the NPV of each phase to allow users to understand the relative impact. In some ways it might be better if not so it is just viewed as a single project.

Anyway as others have said no real need to speculate much more so lets see how the market reacts to the impending DFS over the next few weeks. Still hoping for that 20-25p buyout in H1 just in time to move largely to cash !

Https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/29/canada-g7-china-rare-earths-00628919

You never know !

Although the SPG plant will be incorporated into the DFS, I suspect they will show an NPV with or without. I imagine any funders will want to understand this split as would any prospective buyers given Phase 3 has a completely different risk profile and an element of optionality.

Let's see LW. Happy to be proven wrong given the size of my holding but yes end of Nov when it lands (6 weeks away) I am not seeing more than 12p.

We need to remember we have already been told the DFS should effectively smash the previous NPV out the park. The market is therefore fully expecting a very strong DFS. Focus will then turn very quickly to okay then Bres can you fund this bad boy as every other graphite play is struggling in this regard.

Talk of 20% NPV (c£200m MC ?) is fanciful at this stage imo. I have just 10 bagged on a gold producer about to post £75m PBT and valued at only £250m and this is not gold.

The key for me is to have a large enough holding that if 25p is the ceiling then happy days; as I do believe that the chances of NOT reaching that level are actually relatively slim.

Yeah generally a special res with 75% value vote but multiple factors to consider.

I am with you Duster on buyout 22-25p. PDMRS make a fortune at that level with all the free shares and I reckon they bite your hand off for that.

DFS reaction will be real interesting as Mike has already telegraphed expectations with "smash npv out the park" etc. I think anything less than NPV10 750m will be viewed as a disappointment by the market given bullish rhetoric. It's not a given therefore that it just flies on the back of the DFS.

On the funding side we need to be conscious that Phase 1 funding only unlocks a small part of the impending DFS NPV and there remains a lot of uncertainty with regards to Phase 3 SPG plant (Financial & execution risk).

DFS 10-12p, Phase 1 funding 18p, Sell 25p (30% premium) is my guess and it clearly is a guess. Values the business c£100m.

Bres is now my largest holding so if this proves ultra conservative then all the better. If the US get involved in some shape or form and start chucking silly cash for equity stakes at project level or indeed outright sale then just maybe it does prove to be conservative.

Well I must admit that is just about as positive as these things can get.

Interesting also how MR explained why there are so many other post DFS graphite projects out there that cannot get funding or into production and why OC is an outlier to this trend; perhaps a certain friend of ours has backed the wrong horse/s !

Each to their own but it is difficult not to get excited about this project even when one puts their risk adverse hat on.

Date of Grant Amount Exercise price Maturity

27/10/2022 3,000,000 8.0 27-Oct-25

31/10/2022 10,312,500 8.0 31-Oct-25

22-May-23 6,350,000 8.0 22-May-26

22-May-23 635,000 5.0 22-May-26

22-Jul-23 459,576 5.0 22-Jul-26

12-Nov-24 25,000,000 6.0 12-Nov-27

12-Nov-24 739,313 4.0 12-Nov-27

15-Apr-25 31,166,667 4.5 Apr-27

12-Aug-25 7,250,000 5.0 Aug-27

12-Aug-25 435,000 4.0 Aug-28

I have these warrants as still being live after today. Might not be spot on but not a million miles away.

I guess if he does make an offer then has to be at the 0.85p level given max paid in the last 12 months.

So either way RTO, offer etc just maybe there is a trade to be had here at the last minute !

CWTL received a waiver back in June.

Trying to figure how this plays out.

CGTL/CWTL were supposed to novate EQTs c£5m debt across by making a payment to the secured lenders. We don't know if the payment was to be for the full amount of the debt or a negotiated lesser amount. This payment was not forthcoming as at the date of the interims and they had an extension until Dec 31 therefore. However looking at both CGTL & CWTLs abbreviated accounts they had no cash to do this and were also in a Net liability position so one has to presume they would have defaulted on this.

Fast forward and now we have Mr Casimiro at the helm of CWTL and who owns 32% of EQT by default. So what's his plan ?

Has to be in a decent position to negotiate strongly on the value of the payment to the secured lenders since at present they would in all likelihood lose their entire £5m if EQT carry on as is. The lenders will not be in the business of picking the bones out of the carcass of administration so might as well take what they can now.

Settle the debt for X amount in the £, then RTO Rebel Ion Ltd into the listing and start a fresh seeking some strategic investment from the UAE. Old equity would not be able to recover but the question is were this to play out as such is there a trade to be had for the here and now ?

We still have circa 40m (between 4 and 5p) to churn through by my calcs. Then another 25m at 6p.

I am sure Mike mentioned recently they are exploring ways to strategically offload in a more orderly way; otherwise it will take some time to churn through unfortunately

10p is not relevant in itself but is just making the point that with free shares/options PDMRs make significant returns at that level - hence how greedy they need to be.

Ultimately it's all about getting that SP up now to a level where a realistic buyout premium (30%-75% for a junior ?) gives PIs what we consider to be fair value.

They certainly have enough skin in the game to make some serious cash here.

The slight downside is that what is effectively NCOs/free shares mean they can 20 bag with a 10p buyout hence don't have to be as greedy as we maybe would like. Either way this will all be wrapped up within 12 months imo.

Yep taken a few more as well sub 5p. Must admit was not at all surprised to see that RNS this morning given what seemed a pointless update of the Corp presentation.

Options exercised at a premium was quite a canny move by management. They are not a charity case and know what is coming down the road.

Personally I am sensing they will not get too greedy. Bres are effectively facilitators with only a few employees. PDMRs have enough skin in the game to be handsomely rewarded with any offer 20p +. DFS, some funding solutions with Waterborne and then the highest bidder imo.

Going through the phases will be a huge piece of work (time & cost) and there will be a lot of uncertainty/risk with execution of the downstream SPG plant given this is completely new territory. My guess is also that a potential suitor would want to expedite the phases and possibly skip some out in order to pull forward the real prize.

Not entirely sure why they have bothered with the updated presso today as surely it will be completely out of date in a matter of weeks; at least hopefully it will (please tell me its not a prelude to some 5p pocket money given todays SP action !). I also did observe no mention of the AFC in the funding options which thought a little strange given recent comms in this regard. Probably just an oversight.

Anyway, however this plays out it will be interesting and hopefully a very rewarding few months for us all.

Taken a few more sub 4p as honestly did not think we would see this level again.

Personally I think the recent raise was much more about keeping local authorities happy then it was a funding issue as that for me is where the biggest risk is here in terms of maintaining their "unwavering support"; in the case of funding it would be subject to anyway (pre DFS) so unlikely to be that pressing in my view. This smacked more of an emergency raise and backed in to a corner with the warrants etc. Lets also remember that the warrants hurt the PDMRs as well as they will ultimately reduce the value of their own equity/warrants which are not insignificant.

Even if the warrants do take a bit of time to churn through if one cannot make a return here at c4p then may as well give up !

Interesting interview.

Noting his comment that to ensure credibility of the claim they will only use DCF as the basis for damages if the company is "close" to production; otherwise more likely to be some form of sunk cost multiplier + interest.

Difficult to determine how they define close to production but not sure I would put EML in that bracket ? .........although to fair they have referenced the $2.2BN NPV in the notice of arbitration which no doubt legal reps would have given consent.

Will be Interesting to see at what level the SOC lands.