Member Info for slarti_bartfast

Think there were environmental checks to complete before tlw discharged and final sign off?

'instant communication over long distances'
.. signalling I suppose?
Wonder if post Brexit we revert to OFTEL and no interference from global regulators (at a distance)

'I'm not a fan of divi reinstatement this year'
Think a div would bring in alot of volume and shorts would close. If mcro performance and outlook is deteriorating, a div is unlikely anyway. A div would be a strong signal imo

Hi Slift, 'getting riskier by the day'

I think the risks are evolving rather than increasing (relative to the industry). Trust is being (re) built by the Chair (non exec for the BoE) and bringing in the right CEO for the next 'strategic' phase. The circle of uncertainty is shrinking (risk shrinking?)as TLW scorecard triangulates/ tightens up.

If production can be maintained or increased, great!. Capital structure now has Kenya in the nest and this may even be brought forward on the right cmd outcome. The risk for Kenya is its economic recovery and I imagine them retracing to the start of 2021 if not already 'in flight' ..

Do seasoned pros who know better than us actually frequent the BBs?
Yes. When a material interest wants to influence an outcome, the BBs are filled with pro campaign narratives..'
Presumably you mean JB media campaign. Fine by me if we get 20p.

Looks like 10p is a magic number

I am back in before the vote. Long winter ahead and amigo loans going to help people through it imo.

Hi Tim,
'The interims have been unnerving to say the least at TLW. '
Perhaps the BoD can take a leaf out of the new BBC Director General's book 'doing more for less programme'.
'This is about establishing what we do most of best and finding fewer ways of doing more of it less,” says a character in the BBC’s satire of its own corporate structure, to general befuddlement from those in the room.
Enter stage left, Rahul and CMD. Things will become clearer shortly. Do not adjust your set!

'I am on HL and its a complete joke. I have an IG account as well just trying to master the website then HL is history.'
I should have read the signs when they upgraded their system back at Easter. Downhill ever since, less and less data. Makes you wonder why they would do that?

'No hope at Kenya. Tlw will develop it, probably take years.'
That would be a good outcome if the capital restructuring allows. We get the impairment written back and can farm down at higher oil prices and kenya locked in 27 years?

Looks like it wants to go higher ..$40.83
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

'Is anyone really that delusional to think van burden cares about us.'

He will not benefit from his mega ltip until 2022 so his interest should be aligned with shareholders. This is an old article with some detail on his remuneration and ltip.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-shell-ceo-breakingviews/breakingviews-shell-ceos-bonus-problem-less-size-than-length-idUKKCN1QV2EZ

The strong £/$ at year end could bolster the balance sheet and unrealised forex gains should realise through next year as CV dissapates and demand returns and maybe a more supportive regulatory environment. This may be the bottom and a pivot/tipping point. Need to hear the new CEO strategy of course! AIMO

'Well, if the company wanted attention it surely got it today and will attract interest and create business development opportunities if Sterling is listening.'
SP back to 19 Aug run up to the spike. They were quick to get the speeding ticket out yesterday so is something else going on in the background?

'Where is the centre of management control vs where is the centre of economic control. '

TLW doesnt have any management control. Their fate is in the hands of governments..economic control and a long cycle imo

I think this year, hope for the shorts to close.
What events will shift the shorts?
$50 brent should start to worry them.
Cash from asset sales and debt pay down will be less risk for some of them.
What else?

Think that contract is in S.Africa. still, shows what winning new business does to the SP. RA up50% or so.
We got pseudo civil servants running tlw thinking of cleverer ways to rework the numbers imo
Come on Rahul, get moving and get rid.

That 51p share option is in 2025!
I have a small holding from last year which I have averaged down. I would take a profit if it bounces. Think its being held in a tight range on news .
Story seems to have changed from free cash flow at $35 oil to FCF at year end . A bit of churn going on in the guidance as the £1bn portfolio management activity straddles the year end imo

'Sorry but I must have some kind of translation software de-selected. Could you please explain what do you mean by that?'

You need a babelfish or dark glasses. LoL so long and thanks for all the fish!

With TLWs ability to generate cash and reserve rich, a merger, takeover, JV look possible if the other entity is cash poor and results in more robust balance sheets
Maybe thats too much to do whilst the $1bn portfolio management activity is incomplete? TLWs corporate bandwidth has reduced with restructuring