Member Info for slarti_bartfast

If you are a lth, you will receive 4 divs pa and get your target. At any point, you can top slice and reduce your risk to BP.
If you bought sub £2, well done, just enjoy the income and capital growth imo

In a sample of 1, me, with a relatively well diversified portfolio that had to withstand the market declines, particularly value stocks from 2016/17, BP should be 350 at this stage in the recovery relative to other stocks in my portfolio. Q1 results will likely do the trick. In any event, I would like a couple of years of modest capital and dividend growth and can understand the big pension funds circling, like norway sovereign fund gla

tempted to trade but have added some more. Sentiment about china consumption swinging to western consumption. Bidens stimulus is now tagged for global growth according to the OECD. When the music stops,if you remained seated you should benefit. Lots of volatility to trade if you are on your toes..

should put us in automatic entry to the FTSE250. Tide is lifting all boats so now its down to management performance and Rahul is better than his competition imo.
No doubt will bounce around until rbl, refi and strategy are interlocked with all interests. OIL @$64 and the bulls calling much higher and for longer. Thats the space Rahul is playing into so its all down to his performance now imo
GLA

SiPi, if we assume the RBL and refi go well by end of Q2 and then Kenya economics/ Finance by end of H2, then anything over 50p must mean we are back in the ftse 250. Thats means volume from the ii's and goodbye short volume. £1 is a good target imo

8ead, yes $7bn over 10 years. Back of the envelope $7bn is proxy for all future cashflows and then adjust for debt, finance costs etc. Also, of the $1.4Bn finance leases, I think tlw get c.$0.6Bn contribution from partners.

Main thing is 31p is great opportunity.

So if TLW generate c$7Bn operating cashflows, pay c.$2.4Bn debt and c.$1.4Bn financing leases, that must put the SP over £2 allowing for additional growth capex etc?

Bond prices rising..

Jub, Its how Dorothy thinks. After all she is non exec at the BoE and mixes with nobel prize winners. Fortunately in her personal and professional development programme she recognised TLW needs Rahul who can bridge the market risk to portfolio risk.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capm.asp#:~:text=The%20Capital%20Asset%20Pricing%20Model%20(CAPM)%20describes%20the%20relationship%20between,assets%20and%20cost%20of%20capital.

'Whatever way you look at it debt has to be addressed'
You dont mean all debt has to be repaid? TLW should continue to use debt and TLW's value is independent of how it is financed. TLW has more than adequate cash resources tp service debt, take any tax cost advantages as well as using cash for growth capex.

Consider the 'capital structure irrelevance principle'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani%E2%80%93Miller_theorem

Lots of cash in the bank, 2021 non issue.
2022 looks a lot less risky and now oil over $60.
Rahul still has portfolio options but clearly wants to use cash growing the high margin business is priority.
Only the one post shorters dont believe

TO
Alot of the hard work has been done and now executing the plan.
Its not unreasonable for >1000 legal entities to be reduced to half a dozen holding, operating and service companies within the aquiring group. If their geographical footprint matches/ adjacent field etc then there are synergies, savings, opportunities to 'transform' their own balance sheet adding $7Bn operating cashflow to their horizon value. The sovereign/ regulatory element needs to be carved out. Oil majors will have already done their appraisals just waiting for the right conditions imo

great 3rd question mark

I like that growth capex is positioned against the refi timings. That drives out the right plan and can be delivered

can sell the bond if worried but better to wait for par imo

Conference call - 9am (London time), 10 February 2021. To access the call please call the appropriate number below 10 minutes prior to the start time. Enter the Event Plus Passcode stated below and provide your name and company. International dial-in +44 (0) 2071 928338. UK free phone 0800 279 6619. Event Plus Passcode 7685595
https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=202102091543305165O

..cash not an issue now, $75m from UG next month too. Looking better everyday

With a cashflow outperforming the base case, debt holders will want the yield, they wont want it paid back! There is one block of 2021 debt who want repaid at par. TLW have the cashflow. Reminds me of old C&W (diff industry, same international reach) who eventually got acquired for £1 by VOD. We could get picked off by an oil major. LTH imo

The refi will have been done, Kenya will have an 'economic' case , probably a farmdown, 12 months additional cashflow @$60 over the base case/ CMD case, suriname etc Has to be over 50p and back in the ftse250 my guess

with continued producer supply curbs helping spur strength everywhere from physical markets to the futures.

“There’s going to be bumps in the road, but we know the final outcome now, which is that we’re heading back toward a lot more normal,”

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/oil-set-for-biggest-weekly-gain-since-october-on-tight-supply

didar, the maths is beyond me but I think the relationship can be described as a diffeomorphism :).

Janet Yellen is going to tell us how free markets should operate in a zero interest environment. The solution is going to be BIG. I would guess the SP will be £1 when the oil price is $65.