Member Info for Skippysb01

Hop2. I'm late to this thread and to your original question. Well the RNS didn't land today so this is still relevant.

If you have a sum of cash that you intend to invest in SNG why are you waiting until after the P3 results to invest it all? Are you already invested and this is a further play to make more? For example my average is 125p so my risk profile is based on that rather than todays SP.

Not advice but I will talk to what I would do now if I was not currently invested. I would decide how much cash I had that I can afford to lose v the risk here. I would take half of that and invest it now. I would keep the rest and see what happens after the P3 results come out. If after the results it is clear that there is a good chance of another 'event' such as EUA or orders confirmed then I may invest the rest ahead of that news - IF the SP still looks like value. So everything after the P3 results is so completely dependent on currently unknown events that for me it's not worth planning for right now BUT I will still have cash to take an opportunity if it presents itself.

I would not plan to try to buy stock on the day that the P3 results are released - unless the results are not very good (that's another story as not very good may be good enough to generate orders but not certainly - SP could fall a lot and then recover on that premise), there are so many scenarios but if the SP was to fall it may be oversold depending on a number of factors. If the results are positive you may get spiked. It is not improbable that the highest SP on the day might not be exceeded again for some time (if ever - risk is risk).

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Certainly at the end of last year I felt that it was likely that we would have results by end Jan. However in context I probably felt it was say 70% likely rather than certain.

In truth I can imagine many reasons why the analysis of the P3 data is taking longer than I would like it to. I think the reasons are likely to be systematic, process and judgement based rather than that they are taking longer than expected. It's a complex trial with outcomes that are hard to capture in an objective manner, which SNG has done a fantastic job of designing to anticipate those challenges.

There are more shades of grey in the analysis of this type of trial than people realise. They need to make sure that the results they publish (the interpretation of the data) meet the demands of rigorous expert judgement.

I'm surprised anyone thinks the results are late or delayed. They are not in the context of what RM has told us. Early 2022 i still where we are. From an investors perspective I would suggest it is 'any day now' and that could be the case for many tomorrows still (I hope not).

This weeks trading looks much like last weeks. We went up from about 190 to 205p last Friday and unless there is another factor I expect the same will happen this week.

The market likes the idea of a Monday RNS so every time we don't get one we get this trading pattern of a dip into the 180s followed by a repeat of buying in again by the end of the week. Some traders will be making a tidy amount every week on this pattern (it's not for me).

Personally I don't think SNG care about what day they release the results or what the SP does ahead of that. Investors are rewarded on the outcomes of the SNG plan not the waiting in-between.

hultiger - agreed. People need to learn instead of getting angry. There are far safer investment options for those that can't take responsibility for high risk investment decisions.

Baffyman. SNG have been very clear that the results of the 90 day trial will be released separately.

Jilted - it's unbelievable that they timed that so badly. What an opportunity to finally lift the hex.

Well there have only been 11 posts on the CMH board and they obviously don't understand what investment is. What do they think would happen to CMH if they did not do the placing? It nearly went bust so has to be high risk. Can't blame TB because the SP is down for a day.

Share price was just 22.22 on the 22/2/22

Surely it means something?

Sharedealer - we were typing at the same time! Thanks for the extra detail.

More transmission = more chances of mutation. We should expect more variants whilst western governments let it rip.

Germany and Czech Republic have historic high new cases. UK cases going up again (see ZOE figures for some reality on this).

Filtered. Absolutely no attempt to even disguise motives for this thread. Rubbish

Top post Tony

Lot of rubbish being spouted about this. TB realises that CMB is a good prospect for recovery after the pandemic, it needed restructuring and investment after nearly going out of business when it's order book and supply lines were heavily impacted in the pandemic. He realises that by investing now he can make bags on that investment.

It is beyond belief how people invested in AIM don't understand that companies can use placings to raise funds to invest in growth.

Tell you what - sp at CMB around 5p this morning. I'm not invested in CMB but a bit of fantasy investing - I'll let you know when it bags from here.

I wonder too if BRH are progressing on a sale of this company. Could be a nice dividend on the back of this.

Actually what happened was BRH, because TB has family who run FAB and hence was able to make a direct introduction, asked FAB formally via a broker to take part in the placing so that they could raise the funds (together with TB's money) to invest in Paraytec. All legal.

TB then terminated his legal relationship with FAB. Necessary to allow FAB to make independent decisions re what to do with the shares.

FAB is not owned by TB.

We can speculate and perhaps it seems obvious that he may still be able to manipulate the end point for those shares owned by FAB - but it is conjecture.

The problem I have with this type of argument is that you are missing the other 'obvious' reasons. One potential reason is that BRH needed to raise funds quickly and took the shortest route via TB and FAB because this was an easily accessible way to raise funds considering the connections that TB had with FAB. This was run via the lawyers and it is completely legal.

TB does not own FAB.

hulltiger. Yes Kirkstall too. I have said it before - I think TB is good at spotting investment opportunities.

Paraytec has products in the market. They are very small but it isn't true to say they have never achieved anything. BRH are involved because they see the potential to make a significant return on Paraytec Intellectual Property. So BRH is investing in Paraytec to get them to the market where they could not do so on their own. This is what BRH does and then they sell the holding or the IP and return profit to investors via a dividend - this is the model BRH are trying to implement... and successfully considering the sale of RMS and probably sale of other holdings this year (Paraytec being the current jewel in the crown. We also could sell Phasefocus).

Covid provided the opportunity to invest in a specific problem. BRH has seen that chance and is trying to make the Covid test happen - they have other irons but the Covid one is hot now. They don't want to be making Covid or sepsis tests in 10 years time. They want to monetise the IP and sell it on.

It's why we invested right? Small cap company with high grade IP. Would we have bothered investing if we didn't see that? If it was a dead cert it would already be priced as a dead cert and we wouldn't have a potential upside.

I do wonder what other investors think risk and reward is about. It's the 'chance' of big returns v the risk of losing what you invested.

I reckon we are back in oversold territory now and we can expect to get back in the 30-40p range in the next few months.

All this FAB and TB is being FAB is actually just too obvious. If you were TB and wanted to do some dodgy insider trading you would not do that in plain sight - you would get someone who is not a family member to do it. FAB are selling because they want to sell.

SP has fallen to these levels because the last update RNS called out that the next news won't be until after Feb. Money moves where money can move. Day to day watching of this SP isn't healthy. Just set a price warning and come back when it pings.

Great buy price IMHO.

It's going lower because the last update RNS told us that the next news probably won't be until end Feb/mid March. It doesn't mean that news can't come ahead of that but on a balance of probabilities.....

Don't mistake the current/daily SP for these small cap companies as an indication of where this can end up. The point is that this 'could' reach multiples of the current SP on very little news. The Covid yes talone is worth many times the current cap of the company 'if' it gets near to market. I would be buying more at these levels if I could release from elsewhere (i'm not because those other investments are also 'event' stocks that could delivery any day). I may do so if the fates align.

No guarantees in life and DYOR but this is now a very low SP for what they have on the books - I think.