Member Info for skippy999

I agree - seems to be no reason, publically known, for a largish fall. Anyone got their ears on out on the street? All at the beach eating ice-cream, not cake in the towns?

Good to see future profit forecasts being reflected in revised share price ratings today at 70p. Margin up, numbers up, M&A on horizon ● Summary: We continue to view Breedon as a differentiated long-term rollup story in the aggregates sector, currently supported by the cyclical recovery in construction activity. At H1 results on 23 July, Breedon reported a revenue increase of 28% yoy, underlying EBIT up by 78% and underlying basic EPS up by 77%. Despite the magnitude of these increases in profitability, with the EBITDA margin target increased from 15% to c20% by 2020, we think there is much more to come from the company both organically and from further bolt-on M&A. We upgrade our 2015 EPS numbers by 15%, by 5% for 2016 and 9% for 2017. We also increase our price target to GBp70 (from GBp56) and maintain our Buy recommendation. ● Strong trading: Breedon reported strong trading in H1, continuing the trend from Q1. The underlying business was well ahead of the prior year with the EBITDA margin up to 17.0% (from 14.2% at H1 2014). This was primarily driven by a strong start to the year in England on the back of buoyant demand and good weather, acquisitions, and the benefit of the fall in oil prices. In particular, Breedon saw above-inflation price increases of 5% in aggregates, 2% in asphalt and 4% in concrete, and also saw volumes ahead of market (+11% in aggregates, +14% in asphalt, +8% in concrete). ● Margins: In addition, having achieved its target of 15% EBITDA margins by the end of 2014, management increased its target to 15% for EBIT by 2020, which equates to c20% for EBITDA. Given our previously assumed progression to only 16% EBITDA margins in the medium term, our EBITDA forecasts increase today by 15% in 2018 and 21% by 2020. We believe a lot of the improvement in profitability in recent years has come from selfhelp. With the macro backdrop in aggregates increasingly supportive, management is optimistic that margins can return to pre-recession levels. ● Balance sheet and M&A: It has been a relatively quiet year for M&A at Breedon so far. Versus the GBP40m deployed in 2014, Breedon has yet to make any acquisitions in 2015. Given the extent of deleveraging in the business (we see net cash by 2017), we think Breedon should be able to spend cGBP30m-35m pa on bolt-on deals. Nonetheless, the 2014 acquisitions are progressing well and management notes several acquisition opportunities are currently under review. ● Valuation: Breedon trades on multiples of 20.5x and 17.2x P/E for 2016E and 2017E respectively for an organic EPS growth CAGR of 18% 2016-18E. 24 July 2015 BUY Current price Price target GBp 54 GBp 70 23/07/2015 London Close Market cap (GBP m) 572 Reuters BREE.L Bloomberg BREE LN Changes made in this note Rating: Buy (no change) Price target: GBp 70 (56) Estimates changes 2015E 2016E 2017E old Δ % old &#916

Many thanks. Where I am coming from is the p/e spread in the sector - P Tom et al will carry on hunting out acquisitions, as he says in his interim report, and this will edge the p/e higher due to future expectations. At a p/e of 25, then even the brokers estimates of 58p look low, and the price could be even higher. Investors expectations are high, and the board are delivering with tangible, highly increased profit levels, so I can see that 58p targets will soon be revised upwards, and with sound reason.

Great interims, so mulling over the full year, and keeping an eye on the p/e with regard to Lafargeholsim at 16. If the full year comes in at circa £31m profit, issued shares 1,069m (cannot see 2015 current figures, so took 2014 y/e), then EPS is approx. 2.9p (2014. 1.64p). So back to p/e and say the market settles at 25 (currently over 31), then the maths is p/e =25, so p/2.9=25, then price (p) is 72.5p. We all wish for this, if we are current holders! The above can be wrong if: - issued share capital is greater than 1,069m - there is a p/e reduction down to competitor levels -profits don't come in as predicted. Am I missing something, as I am not a market analyst? Thanks.

I bought on a brokers recommendation, and it has paid off so far - I agree that this is LT, but it is interesting to see fairly sharp fluctuations daily and a small spread - might be worth some day trading, although I have not done so, just topped up on the dip at 210.

Nice to see recovery! Anyone else following this share closely?

Spoke too soon!

Good to see a lift after the days of decline - hope it holds! Seems to fluctuate quite widely during a normal day even with low volume trades.

Nobody in the management of this company sits on their hands, and the only mid-long term trend will be upwards, through in-house efficient growth, but also acquisitions.

Great company, good AGM and results, Invesco in for 27%, brokers positive, construction UK at its best for years and yet a fall like today. A buy at a little lower, and the spread stays sensible.