Member Info for skippy999

The only "True numbers" are the final f.y results! Hence, we are all guessing. Carving up the knowns against the unknowns: KNOWN - costs will be 12-15% lower due to US$ vs Rand exchange rate gain. - mix of diamonds now mined is, and will continue to be better quality, therefore attracts better prices. - however, prices down (Dec) 9% on f.y 2015. UNKNOWN - H2 world price movements - quantity PDL will manage to get out of the ground ie. sales volume H2 - quantity they will be able to successfully sell at tender. We know Q1 resulted in large stocks held back. I do not see borrowings as a big issue assuming the business model is robust. Interest rates must have been agreed, or partially fixed when these were taken out, and rate rises likely to be marginal in 2016 (Fed up hearing about the FED rate hike personally!). So, standing back, the SP fall has been massive form 150p to the 60 range now being explored. I see the upside significantly brighter than the downside, although with all diamond trades there are many facets to the argument! GLA

Welcome back! You are now known as the "Prophet of £2.80", and you were right! I just see this SP following oil, more or less, and there is absolutely no good news around at the moment. There is also the fact that mining shares, like bank shares, are "Out of fashion" now. The only one that I am in is PDL and that is starting to pick up, at the moment, but high risk and subject to great volatility.GLA

Good morning. I hope you are right - I used historic sales vale versus your carat basis. Very significant pre-trade rise, let's hope it last the day, week, and month!

Made the decision to top up at 64p which lowers my average cost to 67p. Could go either way, but I take the point that a lot of this could already have been discounted. GLA

Where is the Prophet? Sure as hell there is no Profit! £2.80 here we go!

Going down!

http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=110563.USD.lb&dr=5y The chart above shows the price of copper over the past 5 years, and it mirrors the SP of VED almost perfectly - it is still going down, as will VED. £2.80 now appears high, and I expect this to drop lower. Minerals follow oil, and oil keeps going down.

May we grow older and bolder, and may the Dollar remain grand over the Rand!

As I read the report, the improved mix has already had an impact on the price for the 1st two tenders, or at least, the second one. Even assuming the next tenders in FY 2016 raise the equivalent of US$86m circa, then turnover for the year will be US$327m. If there is a saving in forex on costs of 15%, this will reduce them to US$268 giving profit of US$59m (2015 y/e US$90m circa). I note that there are 4 tenders in H2 but assume they will contain roughly the same quantity of diamonds as H1. I am trying to put this puzzle together and all views appreciated. GLA

So the results include the big diamond sales, and total circa US$150m, representing 6 months sales roughly. Revenue for y/e 30/6/15 was US$425m so revenue for this year is likely to be well below that. Costs last year were US$331m so even with the devalued Rand, profits are likely to take a big hit for this year. Views?

Today was 1st day that these £20m of shares could be traded - guess some have sold off given the 400k sold volume. I expect a rise in the SP soon, as nothing fundamental has rocked this boat. 122-123 soon and back on the trend line. Views?

£2.80 - looks more likely and nothing to stop this that I can see re commodity markets at the moment.

to see this back in its normal range 120-124. Was lucky to get some in the placement at 118p. Also good to see the amount purchased compared to the amount sold today. Keep on going!

Hi. I do not believe the placement was the cause for the fall, as it was only just over 1% of the issued share capital. On 30 Nov volumes, mainly sales were high at 1.8m, so I am guessing we are just looking at a correction in market value visa vi net asset valuation. All said and done, I am guessing as well! It does not take away the fact that the returns here are excellent, and the price is stable compared to many others. GLA

This will be released on 3 December and may account for the drop. Views?

Yes! I don't trade in the margins of 0.5-0.7p either! I sold my business this year, so my shares are my new labour force! This is still a great share and backed by many private investment houses due to the return generated. GLA

Sorry, they are only trying to raise £20m, so 17m shares - must read the RNS more carefully! ie a 2% increase in issued share capital! Doesn't explain the drop at all!

Thanks. I would add they appear over sold today, and the dilution at 118p compared to the issued share capital should not have driven the price down so much. ie 88/577 issued = 15% NEW ISSUE VIA PLACEMENT ONLY, but share price has dropped near to placement price.

Seems that the placing at 118p is driving things down - I have subscribed for some at 118p and expect the share price to be above 200p in days. Views?

Thanks. I like to look at things simply, so some commodities have a finite life, hydro-carbons, industrial diamonds, most zinc etc etc. Copper is an exception, and the world has become very savy at stopping it going to landfill by recycling it. It is even recovered out of the back end of incinerators at times along with ferrous. China, a couple of years ago, imposed a "Green Curtain" on recyclables entering the country. This means they have to be AAA grade and free from contaminates and other waste. This lifted the quality output of the recycling industry in the west and led to greater investment in recovery equipment. China also realised that it could recover a lot of metals itself, and is now one of the largest recyclers in the world, thus supplying some of its own needs and lowering import requirements. I believe that prices are near the bottom, but not there yet. The more acid question is not so much about price, but demand and volumes. Restricting output will help the price, but it will also re-fuel the recycling initiative which is driven by recovery rates ie. price! An example, normal domestic electric cable, without having the plastic coat removed, was selling at about £1 per kilo, so the average extension lead would net £1. Push this up to £1.30 and the incentive to recycle is even greater. When will the world economy pick up is a bigger question than I can answer, but I see the trend of good news then being immediately countered by bad news, likely to continue in this uncertain time. Letsrecycle.com has all current and historic scrap, paper, plastic, glass prices etc.