Member Info for skier1

Yes, there are 3 main headwinds for LLOY here.

1. The LLOY dividend has been cancelled for 9 of the past 15 years. That is an astonishingly high non-payment rate of 60%.

2. Western casino banking is causing a major industry crash every 5-10 years. There is a relentless cycle of panic. For example, the dark clouds of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse today hang over LLOY. The collapse of Lehman Bros was not so long ago.

3. The Western capitalist era is quietly drawing to a close, and we're shifting into a new era of pseudo-Marxism. The UK state will need more of your money as it gets bigger and takes more control of our lives. That means more future tax of cashflows, more tax of assets, more tax of shares, and more windfall tax of capitalist exploiters of the West, such as the banks.

None of those headwinds is favourable...

This looks like yet more artificial hysteria, designed (as always) to talk down Britain's economy. We enjoy misery and fear. It is very weird behaviour.

Make no mistake, wholesale inflation is plunging. Fuel, milk, energy, it's all coming down. This, in turn, is driving down retail inflation in Q2 2023.

I predict next month's April reading will slump to around 7-8% and this inflation hysteria will melt away in weeks.

UK total inflation (including housing costs) for Mar 2023 is already down to around 9%, while core inflation (excluding volatiles) is down to 6%.

Not sure why the UK is always focusing on retail inflation (10%) -- it gives only a partial view of inflation, and not the whole picture of what everyone spends their money on.

The worrying threat of a Labour govt in 2024 is not inflation, but taxes and liberty. Anyone making a medium or high wage is going to get rinsed, even more so than the red Tories, while freedom to debate and freedom to travel by car or airplane are going to get hammered even further down.

Scotland will never leave the Union. It has lost every referendum since the last century. SNP is now in freefall. It's just more shouty hysteria from the ultra-Left.

We love Scotland for its skiing, stunning mountains, and the legendary Krankies.

UK influence in the world has grown significantly since Brexit in 2016. From Ukraine in Europe, to Australia subs and CPTPP in Asia, the UK political establishment has once again refound its confidence. They are no longer subservient to Berlin, Brussels or Paris.

..."Truth be told, UK politics is none of Biden's business"...

Good post, but this part is way off-beam.

The US brought peace to Northern Ireland.
The US has more military jets in the skies above England than the RAF.
The US funds huge chunks of UK spying on its citizens (like GCHQ).
The US is the only thing standing between the UK and Russia-China.

Like it or not, UK politics are extensively controlled by the US (and have been for decades). It is Biden's business.

1. Climate change denial
The climate has always changed, since 4 billion years ago. Our back garden sat under a mile of ice 10k years ago. What's more, the UK needs more sun. Brighton will soon be the new Miami.

2. The idea that Donald Trump is the saviour of the western world
Well, Trump was spot-on (and first) in his pullback of communist China, the utterly reckless Germany-Russia gas pipeline, and the intense funding and authorization of the US Covid vaxx that saved tens of millions of lives and now dominate the planet. The world (by their actions) show his foresight was right.

3. A perverse admiration for Putin
Well, some say there is little difference between Russia-Ukraine and UK-Iraq. Or UK-Afghanistan. Or UK-Libya. Millions vapourised for the Great Game.

Lol.

Not sure a "diamond junior" is one that has been around nearly *quarter of a century* and its share price has collapsed -99%!

As predicted, US banking results are driving LLOY higher.

Some solid early numbers today from JPM, Citi and Wells. The US banks index has spiked. Good news for LLOY holders.

The US "end of inflation" trade is coming to an end. US inflation is now returning back to normal levels. US Fed rate rises are near their peak, and should start falling by H2 2023 (as predicted last year).

Attention turns now to US company results in Apr-May 2023. That's the next big trigger to drive the Dow (and FTSE and LLOY) up or down from here.

Know someone in Cornwall who bought a seaside detached house just before lockdown for £400k, and sold after lockdown for £700k. Pretty much got a tax-free retirement package, just for owning a pile of bricks for 4 years. The UK housing market is nuts.

As predicted -- months ago -- HFEL has slumped -10% since I first started posting here ;-)

Buybacks and dividends are all good. But LLOY is a low-growth, high-risk business in a mature, overcrowded industry. LLOY is never going to command a high PE premium. It will only take one swipe of Starmer's red pen to send the shares crashing in a year or two. One windfall tax to fund a socialist utopia. One policy to nationalize rental flats. One US AI fintech to undercut the mortgage industry. Too many potential headwinds here for LLOY shares to really takeoff.

Whether LLOY gets taken over before 2030 -- or broken up into pieces -- probably depends on the success or failure of its new Citra division. If UK flat-rentals are a success, LLOY will survive and thrive on its own. If Citra flops, and drags down the mortgage business, LLOY may well get swallowed up, or broken up, by a US, Canadian or Australian bank.

When was the last placing and dilution here?

Wooden spoon?

..."No chance of a major house building program in this country unless we employ workers from abroad"...

As stated many times before, the perception of a UK "housing shortage" is just ridiculous hysteria. There are well over 1m properties for sale or rent today on Rightmove. Plenty of supply. Pretty much 100% of everyone in the UK has a roof over their head. The UK does not need more ugly concrete pouring over her green and pleasant lands.

I went to uni and spent another 6 years delaying getting a proper job ;-)

LTI is correct.

UK pension and other funds "invest" way too much of our / their money abroad. They have all but abandoned the UK market in the past decade or two. UK (not foreign) "investors" are the core problem.

The AMGO share price has collapsed an astonishing -99.9% in 5 years, and folks still continue to pump it. You couldn't make it up!