Member Info for skier1

As predicted, MNG has crashed thru the 190p support level, now testing the 170p barrier. Looking very bearish on the charts.

The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 look way oversold at this point. Most of the major tariffs on the major countries have not even kicked in yet. There's still plenty of time for China, EU etc. to trim their tariffs and step back from the showdown. What's more, the academic research typically shows the passthrough of tariffs on import prices to retail prices is relatively limited. Tariffs won't impact retail inflation as much as we think, giving the Fed plenty of scope to cut rates for the rest of 2025.

Bitcoin now down nearly-30% from its peak in Dec 2024.

FTSE 100 looks like it's going to plunge 400-500 points on Monday morning. Back in the 7000s, as expected.

A wild guess at the DCA car-loan timeline currently suggests...

* July 2025 = Supreme Court final ruling

* Sep 2025 = FCA redress scheme details

* Q1 2026 = payouts begin

No problem with BAE. Just that the hype here and in the market for BAE is way overdone. The EU is not going to be buying lots of UK military kit, the AUKUS deal is almost all American, and the UK defence industry is not going to see a global export boom anytime soon. UK global defence exports are in longterm structural decline, with rapidly shrinkkng market share, and the last of the best UK defence tech that's left is disappearing fast. Go look at Safran (France) scooping up Collins Aero (UK) and its IP this week for the price of some loose change they found down the back of the sofa. The hype here for BAE and (what's left of) the UK defence industry looks pretty much unsustainable.

The US economy is +50% bigger, +50% richer, and growing +50% faster than the EU. Absolutely no question the UK should be prioritising the US for exports. US is a high-wealth, high-growth region. EU is a medium-wealth, low-growth region. The trends are clear.

Taiwan -- a country richer than the UK, and the home of the world's most advanced chips -- has announced in the past few hours that they will drop their US import tariffs to 0% (zero)!

As expected, my predictions are coming true.

One by one, these countries across the world are rolling over, and cutting their tariffs. The momentum is building. Taiwan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Israel, countries are breaking cover, 50 nations are negotiating, a trickle is on the brink of a flood. Not to mention the rumours of a UK-US trade deal being imminent!

Trump, once again, is winning.

If Trump can get 50 countries to the negotiating table in 5 days, then imagine what can be done in 5 weeks 😉 Trump only has to get the "dirty 30" countries to the negotiating table (like Vietnam already has), and that's 80-95% of US-world trade right there.

To put his 5-day achievement in context -- it took the world's top-30 carbon polluters 7 years to agree on even a draft principle to talk for the Paris Climate Accords (and 25 years to complete). Think about that. Trump has basically done 7 years of negotiating in 5 days. Five days.

And, once again, a quick reminder for everyone to rewatch Pelosi's 1996 speech about grossly unfair China tariffs on US imports (35% vs. 2%). She said the *exact* same thing as Trump. The US has been over-tariffed for decades. Time for it to stop.

https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1907836058005295612?s=46&t=o6pRD67V507B3diuDnWSkg

Yup, Bloom and Spar "get it". The EU over-tariffs UK services. Look at the nasty EU threats about London Euro clearing. The UK-EU trade imbalance is appalling. Britain needs a Trump.

Lol. Career politicians don't negotiate, they obfuscate and delay, and will hang it out until US midterms or the next election cycle in 1-3 years. Brexit negotiations have been dragging on for 9 years, and they're still not complete. Trump and the US economy do not have nine years. It must be done in 9 months. Stop the over-tariffing of US exports -- the goal is very clear. And 50 major countries are now negotiating to cut tariffs! Trump has achieved this in days. The tariffs have not even gone live. Incredible negotiating skills.

Lol. Putin and Russia have signed 3 peace plans outside their borders this century -- and stuck to all of them. If Ukraine does a good deal, Russia will stick to it. History clearly shows that 👍

Please, stop putting words in my mouth. I never ever said that 👍

What is happening is crystal-clear. Cut debt, rebalance world trade. The days of over-tariffing the US are over.

Trump is absolutely bang on the money.

Lol. The US stockmarket and media are frequently (wildly) wrong, and mendacious. Look at the ridiculous 2014 ScotRef mis-polling, the 2018 US recession panic, the 2020 Covid "wet market" lies, the market and media errors go on and on and on.

And the market and media are wrong on this one. As are you. History will show this global tariff reset is a plan of genius. The over-tariffing of US and global trade is about to end.

As posted last week, the hysterical overreaction here and elsewhere is comical. Trump's goal is very easy to grasp -- cut debt, rebalance trade. Almost all the world's major economies have for decades been over-tariffing the US. It has to stop.

Take South Korea, for example. They tariff US car imports at 10%, while the US tariffs Korean car imports at 0% (zero). That is not fair trade. And, to emphasise the point, South Korea today announced a whopping $2b of free subsidies for the Korean car exporters! So, not only is South Korea slamming the US with massive tariffs, they're now slamming the US further with massive subsidies! That's why Trump is right. The global trade and tariff imbalance has to stop.

Finally, the White House announced today that 50 major countries are now already negotiating a tariff cut with the US. That is precisely what the plan is designed to do. Get the tariff gougers to the table -- and cut their tariffs. And it's only taken a few days. Trump is the king of the deal 👍

FTSE 100 futures tonight are back in the 7000s range.

Trump is right. Powell needs to cut Fed rates. US inflation -- as of yesterday -- sits at just 1%. There is no need whatsoever for 4-5% rates.

Problem is, Trump only has 3 years to get this done. Cut debt, rebalance trade. You can't negotiate with China or the EU in such a short timeframe. They are masters of bureaucratic delay. Look at Brexit -- that one discussion alone with the EU has been ongoing for 9 years, and it's still not fully complete. Trump has to railroad his plan throughout the world. He only has 3 years left.

Having recently looked at the summer cost of cross-Channel ferries, such as the ones to Calais or Dieppe, I can confirm they're actually not too far from charging £2m a ticket...