Member Info for skier1

UBS bank in the last hour now saying the S&P500 could be back above 6,000 by the end of 2025, if the tariff war ends ultimately in net-lower global tariffs for the US.

FTSE 100 futures are currently up +6%. Thursday is going to be a good day.

Hope it comes back for you, mate 🤞 Things are looking a lot brighter this evening. The US today is seeing one of its biggest intraday stockmarket rallies ever in history. The trading opportunities right now are beyond epic.

Wow. The US stockmarket is up a staggering +10% from its low in just a few hours. Hope everyone made some cash this evening 💰

That's Wall Street, not Main Street. The US stockmarket will bounce back.

Nope. There would be 6 months of delay and obfuscation by the EU, China and others, then you're nearly into the 2026 US election cycle, and Trump loses the focus, momentum and political power to push thru the tariff reforms that are badly (urgently) needed. Kicking the can down the road for 6 months is a very British thing to do! It's not the American way 👍

A temporary +10% tariff is really not bad at all. Academic research typically shows only about +2% of that number will flow thru to the retail consumer in the US. The supply chain will absorb the rest. The impact on Main Street will be barely a flicker.

As before, Gate, Trump and the US simply do not have time to negotiate. Brexit is not done after 9 years, the Paris Accords took 25 years. Washington chat is already starting to turn to the Midterms elections for 2026, and it's not even summer 2025! Trump has barely a 1-year window to reset global tariffs (lower them). He's doing a spectacular job. And, really, the UK should care about China -- like the US, we also have a yawning trade gap with China that's killing our economy. The UK badly needs a Trump.

Bloom knows the art of deal 👍 Trump is isolating China. And, fwiw, it's flushed out a staggering number of authoritarian communist sympathisers on here! You know who you are 😉

As predicted, yet again, the S&P and Dow bouncing strongly from the bottom. Yet another +5% gain in less than 5 hours 😎

Trump's tariff plan is a work of art. Threaten counter-tariffs to the over-tariffers, and see who bites. When they bite (75 countries), pause the tariffs for 90 days and give the 75 bad actors a chance to cut their tariffs. He has distilled a decade of negotiations into a couple of weeks. An absolute work of art by Mr Trump 👌

LTI,

Average annual growth in the FTSE 100 has been just +5% in recent years. After a -15% plunge, it's not unrealistic to calculate 3 years for a recovery back to 9000. Add in the tariff wars that may take another year or two for UK firms to recover profits or confidence from. Plus, the rumoured potential for giants Shell and BP to relist in NY and hollow out London, and you can quickly see scenarios where FTSE 9000 might take 5-10 years to get back there. Indeed, looking at the Japan Nikkei 225 market, which took 40 years to recover its mojo, it's possible the FTSE 100 may never ever return to the 9000 level.

Be cool, people 😎

..."Futures holding up, after the latest retaliation. Is the market getting used to it?"...

Yes, feels like a US bottom may be near, at the 4500-5000 range. If the S&P is not tanking today after +50% extra China tariffs, then it suggests the market is expecting a truce or pause or Fed bailout at some point.

The challenge, of course, is how long it all takes to recover. That -14% slump in the FTSE 100 could take 3-10 years to recover.

A 500-acre Universal theme park is being built near Milton Keynes and Bedford, from 2026.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz95n2837vgo

That's a great win for the UK. It basically means the UK is in charge of the global G20 financial advisory board. But goodness knows how Bailey won it! His time at the BoE has been a disaster. Late to spot inflation, late to raise rates, slow to cut rates, talking down the country's prospects, appalling GDP "forecasting" record, and on and on it goes.

Not sure what the hysteria is about. Since Trump won in 2016, China's relative tariff power has more than halved. That's a spectacular win for the US, and a spectacular loss for China. Trump is doing an incredible job of beating China. He's also beating the EU. The GDP gap between the US and EU has widened substantially from +25% in 2016 to +50% in 2025!

Lol.

I get all my economic analysis from a random shouty person on YouTube 👍

When Trump first came to power in 2016, China's tariffs were relatively +170% higher than the US. Following the tariff wars in 2018-2019, and 2025, China's tariffs are now just +70% higher (and set to fall further). The gap has fallen dramatically.

So... let's get this straight... Communist China smashes the UK and US with enormous tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and that's good. Democratic US responds with counter-tariffs, and that's bad. Oookay 👍

Have an example... In the US, TikTok has been widely on sale for years... In China, YouTube is banned, Twitter is banned, Facebook is banned, Google is banned, Instagram is banned, WhatsApp is banned, Snapchat is banned, ChatGPT is banned, and on and on and on it goes.

The pro-China mania here is simply unfathomable. Just unfathomable.

Do find the anti-America, pro-China sentiment on here rather weird.

Keep in mind that we've been here before. Trump walloped China with extra tariffs in 2018-2019. Everybody said they wouldn't work. They did 👍

incredible game from ****nal. ancelotti out of a job by next weds. rice for the ballon d'or ⚽️

no surprise to see stockmarkets bouncing up and down. china and eu playing silly games.

hang seng looks set to lose another 1,000 points on weds.