Member Info for skier1

My mate is a builder. His profits have tripled this year. Average build price has tripled. Booked solid until Q4 2022. Many folks think lockdown / house arrest is the new norm, so they're spending big to make their house big.

As predicted, a few weeks ago, LLOY is drifting back down to the 35-45p range.

Disappointment about no UK interest rate rise has sparked a sell-off and bear mode. Add in Omicron, more lockdowns, Boris on the brink, massive tax raids in a few weeks, huge losses in disposable income for its customers, and the outlook for LLOY is not good.

Interesting that stockmarkets have (so far) taken absolutely zero notice of Boris's doom last night.

FTSE100 futures have dipped 0.1% since Boris's speech. Barely moved. Markets are stable, for now.

South Africa President, 69yo, has caught Covid.

Looks like Boris's 8pm presidential address will be to soften up the unwashed masses for mandatory jabs, electronic tagging, and another lockdown in 1-4 weeks.

Two years, a trillion spanked up the wall, 4 jabs, and back (pretty much) to square one.

Let's see what old Lurch comes out with in 30mins...

With the FTSE100 only likely to rise about +3% between now and Easter 2022 (consensus forecasts), LLOY is unlikely to rise 10 times faster and hit 64p (from 47p) in that timeframe. It can barely get above 50p, let alone 60p!

Date of article = Oct 19 2020

Google Covid Tracker, 7-day average, says the following stats.

* Oct 19 2020
0% jabbed
1,092 new cases
4 deaths

* Dec 9 2020
0% jabbed
262 new cases
4 deaths

* Dec 9 2021
95% jabbed
4,684 new cases
12 deaths

Dec 9 2020 = partial lockdown with nightclubs shut
Dec 9 2021 = partial lockdown with nightclubs shut

Someone earlier was talking about Ireland. One of the most highly vaccinated countries in the entire world.

European Commission and Google Covid Tracker, 7-day average, today show the latest stats.

* Dec 9 2020
0% jabbed
262 new cases
4 deaths

* Dec 9 2021
95% jabbed
4,684 new cases
12 deaths

Yes, no chance of a UK rate rise. Economy is slamming on the anchors, due to Omicron, more lockdowns, and eye-watering tax raids.

UK people have had 3-4 jabs in 12 months, with another 1-2 jabs on the way, and the country looks headed for yet another partial or full lockdown.

Sounds good.

Lol.

Making the CEO a millionaire for a company with a handful of staff, a few thousand in revenue, and shipping a tub of cream in the post.

One born every minute ;-)

Interest-rate hikes for the UK looking less and less likely by the day.

WFH lockdowns arriving, offices forced to close for Xmas, shopping tumbleweeds as a result, more masks, new vaxx passports, less partying, less daytime economy, less nighttime economy, less travel, less holidays, less feelgood, eye-watering tax raids, massive loss of disposable income for millions of families -- all reducing GDP growth.

Pendulum is swinging back toward UK recession.

In 19555, UK ran 30% of the entire planet... In 2021, it is 1%...

British investors have to move away from this (very) weird obsession with dividends.

It is killing the London stockmarket.

The world wants growth (preferably tech).

Not old fossil banks from the 1900s paying dividends and losing -90% of its share price.

Lol.

Buffett's "buy and hold" strategy worked because he was fortunate enough to be born during the absolute peak of the world's biggest economic empire mankind has ever seen (USA). A lucky general.

If Buffet had lived in the UK in the same period, during its post-empire collapse (still ongoing today), buying and holding flagship UK brands like ICI or Lloyds for decades, he would be all but bankrupt by now!

As predicted -- the CBX share price is continuing to plunge.

Looks like infighting at the top, after a disastrous launch and bad results!

Brits have seen almost their entire economic base of manufacturing, mining, farming, retail and services destroyed by cheaper or superior foreign competition during the past 70 years. UK wages are low and taxes are high. The only way most people today can get (or feel) affluent is by piling mortgage debt up to the eyeballs, sit tight for a few years, and then flip a house or two to the next sucker on the ladder. It is vital that Boris keeps the house market rolling and relaxes the mortgage rules in 2022. The UK's future depends on it.

Good luck to anyone whose job is to manage 50k home-rental tenants in the UK!

My mate managed a few-hundred tenants, low to mid earners, and it was just a daily tsunami of verbal abuse, property destruction, and payment-chasing. Spill a bottle of red wine on the carpet, push a sofa over the stain, and then deny it was them. That kind of thing.

The Guardian is going to have a field day, with the endless stories of woe-is-me tenants who want Lloyds compo!

Shareholders will definitely benefit, as BT is probably going to fetch £2-4 a share when broken up.

But the UK (overall) will not benefit. The profits, skills, R&D, IP, top jobs and biggest bonuses will inevitably drift overseas. Very likely to get reloaded up with mega debt or asset-stripped. And the UK tech sector gets hollowed out, again, one sell-off at a time.