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Putin obviously plans to regain direct or indirect control of the entire northern Black Sea coast, from East Ukraine to Odessa and perhaps East Moldova (go look at a map).

Putin is in charge of (by far) the world's largest country and the world's biggest nukes.

He needs maritime security, in and out, across the north, south, east and west seas -- whether we like it or not.

Putin asked Ukraine nicely in 2002 to 2013.

Ukraine thought the West would ride in like a cowboy and save them.

They did not.

As predicted, a lot of downward pressure here.

Rumours of delisting, undoing the dividend, etc.

Keeping a close eye on this one.

May take a punt if it slides to the 5-10p range.

Be careful here, folks.

There is a fair chance this will get booted off the FTSE.

The markets (for now) are on a war footing.

If we get peace, LLOY will go up.
More war, and LLOY will go down.

Peace in Ukraine = 50p
War in Moldova = 25p
Global nuclear = 0p

Great post (below) from JayK and the University of Chicago.

Nailed it.

Yes, Sberbank today is on the brink of collapse. Bank shares looking very risky again.

As before, there is the naive world of student politics, where everyone pops to a coffee shop for a chat and a vote.

And the real world, where the eastern half of Ukraine likes Russia, where the western half likes Europe, where Russia has said every day for 25 years that it does not want Nato on its southern border, where it does not want the Black Sea fleet totally surrounded by Nato, and where an absolute dictator now sits 1000ft underground with 100,000 nuclear warheads a metre from his desk.

Ukraine has had 20+ years to find a peaceful resolution to that tug-o-war. It failed. Now we face a world war.

To have even got to this point is quite astonishing.

To be fair, Ukraine has had 20+ years to find a peaceful resolution and "middle ground" between the proxy war and Great Game of Nato / EU vs. Russia.

Instead, it has prodded Russia into war (twice) and is now trying to drag the rest of Europe, UK and US into a nuclear war.

Utterly reckless.

What romantics and dreamers "would like" to happen, in the world of naive student politics... and what "actually" happens in realpolitik, with 100k nuclear warheads, are two wildly different things ;-)

Great to see Abramovich involved. He seems able to bridge the cultural gap between the West and Russia. Fingers crossed he can stabilize the situation.

Lol.

This is one of the world's most serious problems -- most people only believe what they read in The Sun. If it is not in their favourite newspaper, they think it is untrue. Some staggeringly naive people out there :-(

Let me repeat... This has been ongoing since (at least) 2002. Putin did not wake up a few weeks ago and decide he fancied a holiday in Ukraine. It started over 2 decades ago. Twenty-plus years.

US, Nato and EU tried to draw Ukraine into their bubble. Russia tried to draw them back. Russia is now 100% boxed-in across the Black Sea, by Turkey (Nato), and several other Natos, and panicking. Russia is trapped. Surrounded. Its huge sea fleet is boxed-in. That is why (rightly or wrongly) it has lashed out.

Imagine if Russia controlled the English Channel and Calais...

Ukraine's geopolitical miscalculations here have brought the world to the brink of collapse. Zelensky is a comedian. But this is no joke.

Ukraine is responsible.

Caught in the middle of a *proxy war* (since 2002) and the Great Game between US and Russia. Opted for the US side. Russia went ballistic.

Huge, huge miscalculation by Zelensky (and multiple previous Ukraine presidents) that may yet destroy the entire world.

Russia will have little or no problem with the partial Swift ban. They will just run the cash thru friendly third-parties, like Belarus or ****stan.

Ukraine talked itself into a war.

Now it's trying to talk its way out of a war.

Looks like UK sanctions against Russia will knock 1-3% off UK GDP in the next 1-3 years. It is a big bill.

Ukraine miscalculated. Thought it could join NATO and the EU while half its population still love Russia. One of the world's biggest foreign-policy errors of all time.

UK is now at economic, financial, proxy and cyber war with Russia.

Wish LLOY investors would quit their bizarre obsession with buybacks and dividends. They are out-of-date tactics from the past 20th century. Stop wasting money on a strategy way past its sell-by date.

Modern investors of the 21st century want investment and growth. Spend now, for future expansion. LLOY and investors need to be talking about where the future growth is coming from, like metaverse mortgages or quantum banking. Quit talking about fossil dividends and buybacks. They are from the last century.

We are at the "beginning of the end" of the Western era.

UK started to lose control of the world around 1914, accelerating in 1939 and 1942.
US started to lose control of the world around 2001, accelerating in 2008 and 2022.

Russia is pushing from the West.
China from the East.
Dollar power is fading.

Wouldn't be surprised to see army-navy-drone-space conscription, for under-60s, back on the UK table by the 2025-2035 window.

It was a big miss on profit, fines, and dividend.

Hence, the shares are tanking.

"The money was spent on holidays, sex parties and watches"...

That is the job we all dream of, lol.

Joking aside, the LLOY results today look pretty grim. Low profit, high fines, high future spending. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see LLOY slide back to the 30s.

Regarding the separate topic of Ukraine -- it looks like Russia will take the Eastern third and it will be (mostly) over fairly quickly. A good scan of Twitter suggests limited resistance (so far).