Member Info for Simms45

Almost impossible to compare alba and kefi directly today. All i can say is both are undervalued and one is being pumped up as many are in the early buzz days, maybe lth holders of kefi can reminisce. Certainly Kefi has as much to gain in the short-term if we get the finance RNS. However the good thing with Kefi, subject to that pesky finance we pretty much know the lay of land and will see the steady rise up to NPV by 2022 which is around 6x todays valuation. For Alba there will be plenty of pumps and bumps along the way and some will do well trading the ups and downs but most will probably work out that until you have that PFS and permit its a long way from production.

As i have always said my fear is not that Eqtec will be a massive and highly successful company in the medium and long-term (albeit takeover offers will come from all directions next year onwards) but in the short-term to focus on closing deals as they have so many now they are drowning in contracts. for an organisiation like Eqtec having just 5 deals would be hard work but they have a massive pipeline off the scale for the size of the team. David is open and addresses this and it is great to see as he will be doubling down and focusing on closure. It is a great for a CEO to openly flag up where he sees issues are as opposed to what other CEOs that might do and brush under the carpet. I dont know David but i know a great CEO when i see one.

"Although we see pipeline growth continuing in H2 2020 and beyond, we are also taking the opportunity to put in place greater discipline with financial close and with project execution."

Also managed to top-up. Not as low as i would like but below placing price is money for old rope. The morning spanking is over and time to look at the horizon of a goliath waste to energy success story in the making.

I think while market will take a small but temporary “toys out of pram” this morning if you have had any dealings with planners, councils, lawyers, banks in last 6 months (as i have) you know the industry is barely functioning. Basic things are taking months. That is the reality but Eqtec have massively delivered and confirmed the future potential, if we did not know that already but putting bigger and bigger numbers in the rocket booster. There is a massive potential order book and it should all start to come together. Personally if it goes to .4 i will throw the kitchen sink at this opportunity as it is too good an opportunity to miss, especially when last raise was .45. of all companies i have reviewed Eqtec i rate very highly for that long-term exponential curve in the share price, just need to have a 1-10 year timeframe in mind.

Always good for CEO to understate business prospects :)

“Given the size of our growing pipeline and market enthusiasm for our waste gasification technology, we see 2021 as potentially exponential in terms of deal closures and revenue growth as governments across the globe seek to encourage a green economic recovery.”

WE are nearing the end of the month and we should expect some news update anywhere between next week onwards for probably 2-3 weeks. We could well get some exciting news next week but we will see. I did think the reason for putting out 2 RNS in a single day, that is quite unusual was to give a bit of space to the next news. Have a good weekend.

placing shares at .275 are already tradeable? My guess they are in pretty sticky hands. I think those buying into the placing will be looking at multiples of todays current valuation and the £1,3m extra de-risks Alba considerably and gives a good window to prove up Clogau, which is almost certainly going to be the case. Best thing to do is open a gold mine where one was already present and there is plenty of anecdotal information of gold being found.

Alba has been drilling all this month and have around £1.5m in the kitty having raised at a price of .275 earlier this year so the price today in the grand scheme of things is pretty close to the placing so very early days for investors. This will see Alba through to the results and its pretty commonsense that if they drill enough from inside the mine shaft they will find more veins of Clogau gold. Given the massive multiple in the value of Clogau welsh gold compared to ordinary gold and the high demand for welsh gold used for wedding rings then if they do find decent levels then the maths is quite interesting. Certainly having taken stakes in gold mines all over the world the biggest risk is political and you would think Wales is probably reasonably safe and you would think restarting the mine commercially would be welcomed. There was talk of 500k ounzes which is pretty big if the gold could carry a 30x multiple. Even 2-3x multiple is massive due to the relatively fixed costs of production.

i was suspicious but was after a quick google
https://www.clogau.co.uk/aboutclogau/welshgold.aspx#:~:text=At%20present%2C%20Welsh%20gold%20can,to%20fetch%20about%20%C2%A39%2C000.
so maybe a bit of chinese whispers but sounds pretty interesting when costs can be more than normal gold mine. They must be finishing the drilling very soon so maybe early indications sometime next month. certainly seems compelling proposition.

Need to also bear in mind Welsh gold is the rarest in the world and can command to to 30x the value of standard gold. dont ask me know but if an ounze of welsh gold could be worth $60k i will have some of that! Certainly backing a mine that has already been historically mined is a bit of a no brainer in terms of finding gold so more a case if they can follow strike or go down. With all the worldwide issues buying some gold closer to home makes some sense.

my view the downward trend recently is a number of factors. The first is recent market jitters. in my experience when people are sitting on losses in some stocks they tend to sell stocks in those they have a profit so they sell these to shore up the books rather than book a loss that is hard to swallow. that is generally a bad move in the long-term. The other issue is that we are just past the last results and people who trade are simply bored and will probably come back later in the year while they move into the next company. Ultimately Eve is a small cap company and small sells or buys have an impact on the share price. However if you can not look for 2-3 months we should be far ahead of today because the fundamentals will shine through as profits and revenues grow. We are back to being worth 0 once you remove cash so not a bad place to be, although it is annoying when you get this sort of retrace but that is the market where fear and FOMO rules the stockmarket at different points in the stock market cycle. people are now in fear mode and following the herd. the key is to buy to when others are fearful as they say.

Short cutting time to production through toll agreement is clearly highly beneficial to Condor as it would signficantly enhance Condors prospects and share price and make future funding of plant a great deal easier. Certainly the likes of GGP hsve reached dizzying heights on ability to fasttrack gold production through agreement to use a local processing plant. However as of today the only thing we do know is the mine build and i am interested what anyone makes of the likely value based on that scenario.

For me the goldilocks zone is between confirmation of construction and first pour. Generally the share price multiple i have seen is 3+ or getting closer to its True valuation as once gold is being produced there are industry metrics. Would be interesting with more experienced gold investors what Condor market cap should be once we have first pour and assume no issues. For me we know where we are today and i am very confident we will get go production on time and assuming $1700 gold as base case where does that get Condor. We can then have a pretty good idea the gap between the day the mine is decided on and finance is in place and that first pour date. MC did once mention a valuation of gold mine in production based on indicated gold but it must be more nuanced than that but would be a useful number and compare to Mako and Calibre.

Another day when we have more buys than sells reported and price falls due to backroom shenanigans? Every day is a step closer however to TK finance news. Its odd how when gold rises it barely matters to Kefi share price but when it falls we feel it. Anyway looks like gold is $1864 and rising but anything over $1700 supports a very large multiple of todays market cap.

Has anyone found the equivalent of lse in HK or China? No easy ask but i am sure there is a forum and might learn something. Every shareholder has a right to be kept up to date what is going on. their last report and accounts was laughably lacking in any narrative, just bare numbers and meant shareholders had to read what they could into them. My only hope is HK investors are just as miffed and pushing the BOD to communicate.

My only slight concern with last accounts was the financial impairment charge and what are the reasons behind this. Again all basic stuff a company would normally provide some narrative around but there appears to be no opportunity to pose questions or get answers to anything so shareholders are just left guessing. for Richard Bennett to go awol is not helpful as he is effectively the eyes and ears of the UK shareholder base really.

Hats off to HM as who else is putting their hands in their pockets and buying. If MC has moved to proceedings against final holdouts this is good news as that land owner will quickly sell. If it went to court and they lost (almost certainly) the price of the land would be considerably less. Also the local villagers waiting on jobs must surely be the best soft power, assuming the landowner is known to others as they are literally holding up employment. However it is slightly odd as i was not aware this land owner was owning any stretegically important land as MC said we own all land for mine location so i do wonder where land is or whether its a government license requirement. Otherwise crack on as it will take 12-18 months to build the mine depending what prep can be done now and mine decision. I suspect the fastest route is a key factor.

The share price will ebb and flow, especially when Spreadex are still exiting their last remaining shares but assuming we get that financing we know that in 2022 we will be pouring gold and the conservative NPV for Kefi on 60-70% ownership of TKGM is £236m based on $1700 gold as per latest RNS. Today we are £36m market cap so there is almost a 10 bagger if you factor in JQ and Hawiah valuations alongside new resource being added to TK and underground. That is the opportunity for those thinking gold will stay over $1700 for the foreseeable future. if you think it might be more than $1700 then the above numbers jump up at ever increasing amounts but these are conservative and i feel $1700 is pretty solid as a backstop.

Mobile number for Richard and Ivy available here
http://www.chinanewenergy.co.uk/uploads/soft/191009/1-191009100525.pdf

interestingly only 2.16 on the ASK looks to be Spreadex left, although anyone buying knows they can buy up plenty below this as Spreadex sells shares under the ASK to continue to reduce their holding. Would be nice to punch through to the MMs as that might indicate Spreadex are out but i suspect not.

2.16 208,000 16:00
2.25 200,000 SCAP 07:50
2.25 300,000 PEEL 07:53
2.27 200,000 SING 07:52
2.3 200,000 STFL 13:27
2.3 300,000 WINS 15:51
2.31 200,000 CFEP 15:15
2.42 30,542 07:51