Member Info for Simms45

As mentioned before EQT issue is they are inundated with possible orders and now need to address resources. This sort of deal can help with boots on the ground as their order pipeline is in the 10s for next 12 months but could exponentially go to 100s+ so they need to have access to as many resources to scale this opportunity and take a global leading role asapso as not to miss the opportunity.

Yes a Good flurry of buying that is overdue and they could well have timed it rather well but who knows. Expecting a lot more buying next week in lead up and if and when we get TK news over the line this share will rise for a good week as price moves up to a credible holding position.

Well back to £0 market cap once you strip out cash in the bank and based on recent RNS this cash balance will continue to rise. Such is the market but for those able to hold the market will eventually catch-up. Alongside companies like Halfords Eve is one of the sectors benefiting from everyone staying at home and staring at their 4 walls. Dr Jo will probably be back for another helping along with many others as Eve is for free at these prices. Could well continue to fall however because we are simply mid results and people move onto the next thing but will probably come back pre next results as it would confirm the trajectory is for real and was not a one off.

For me assuming the company revenue and profits are as they seem i just think the BOD are a group of academics and engineers and great at that side of the equation but spectacularly bad at marketing and outbound communication. I think looking back over historic RNS shows how limited their communication is and an invisible BOD who does not communicate is an invisible company and shareholders move on to companies who are more in tune. If they were happy to spend £1m on people writing a decent IPO document they can spare some cash bring in some people to turn around their outbound communication and marketing. They have so much cash this is hardly difficult to fix once they acknowledge the challenge. if they continue to bury their head in the sand and blame the investors for not understanding their business they will continue to fail miserably from what could be a very promising global clean tech company but since they have only won China contracts it shows just how bad their marketing and communication is to other countries. They just need to embrace modern marketing and communication and they could be a £100m organisation as opposed to a £20m organisation.

The major win for Eve is the exposure of the brand as a sleep brand to large audience of mattress buyers in a subliminal way and not just a bed in a box company, although obviously that is the big margin product. Connecting high quality sleep products with the mattress will raise its brands value and therefore people will be willing to pay a little more, same argument you pay more for one brand than a another, even if you have not seen it. Expectation is of higher quality. Products i saw look great and very well produced so that bodes well. Shares will continue the march forwards as re-rate continues.

Its doable as flights still go from Sydney to Addis ababa so you never know but i suspect in this scenario Its not entirely necessary.

While every research report is largely paid for Edison are well regarded and will use acumen as they cover extensively a lot of gold mining assets. The research report is only based on what is known and does not include that strong likelihood of massive uppgrades to all assets in time with more drilling. Just using Edison conservative numbers, arguably their best case as of today, they estimate TK NPV today at 8.18p/share and 13.87p for the Saudi Arabian assets. That is 22.08p NPV for both assets. And you wonder why Harry has saidt recently this is a 10 bagger as you can see Edison has just spelt it out exactlyin black and white. in reality we are only at the start of the journey but plenty to come. GLA.

i would certainly raise a glass to a yearly dividends of 1.62p/share between 2025 to 2028 as that is not far from the current market cap today and ties into what i saying earlier around the yearly net profit being in excess of our current market cap today. We are still in silly season valuation for Kefi. What the report does not allude to is that this is the NPV today not what Kefi is valued at when we are producing the gold stuff. Secondly Kefi is going to drill and find a hell of a lot more gold in and around TK and Harry has spoken of "Hub and Spoke" so other potential gold miners in the region could do a toll deal with TK to bring ore for processing so the mine life is likely to be realistically 20+ years. Also Hawiah has barely had its back tickled and there is a massive upgrade expected once they drill down and along strike so that it would be 2-3x current position. JQ is simply a quick 700k ounzes that we barely even talk about. The NPV today of 4p-8p is just the tip of the iceberg of its full valuation in 2 years time.

Have been looking at some basic comparables to help size up the real potential for Kefi if you compare the AISC and target gold extraction per year you can get a very basic idea of how far Kefi has to climb to first pour.

AISC
Calibre $900 per ounze
Pure Gold $787 per ounze
Kefi $800-900 per ounce

Target Ounces
Calibre 120k-140k
Pure Gold 100k
Kefi 140k

Valuation
Calibre £350m
Pure Gold £575m
Kefi £37m

Therefore just on TK if all the ducks line up and we do get to first pour in 2022 and gold price is where it is then there is every reason for Kefi to be worth £250m-£350m in my view. this excludes potential from Hawiah which we know in the long-term will be worth a multiple of TK and JQ is easy pickings. However we know TK is ready to rumble but makes you think where we might be in 2022 if Harry and investors pull this all together.

Sorry yes well spotted EL. The AISC for Condor is $690 so a lot more profitable and we also open pit. Wow so plenty of room for share price improvement. Even glancing at Calibre today with its higher AISC at around $900 and indicated resource at 793k ounces, and targeting 120-150k ounzes a year is valued at £350m. Makes you wonder that fair value once we are up and running at current gold price must be between £250m-£400m just on these comparables. Certainly makes me want to hold for these sort of multiples to come and add to the pot.

I have received an email back from Ivy at CNE so that is a small relief. My correspondence was largely around improving shareholder communication and outbound presentation of the company but also touched on dividend and share buy back simply given the the very low market cap of the company cannot be doing CNE any favours at all on any front and almost certainly distracting potential sales opportunities. I got this short response and wearing moderately rose tinted glasses it could be construed they are making early moves to address some areas but "considering" is far from action.

"Thank you for your emails and the BOD have met some FAs and are considering your advice."

While far from an exact science if you compare the market cap of Pure Gold (3 ,months from first pour) and Condor you can draw some similarities. Noted Canada is more stable and other differences but if you strip back the key numbers are really the AISC, indicated ounzes, planned speed of extraction and life of the mine.

AISC
Condor $797
Pure Gold $787

Target Ounces
Condor 120k+
Pure Gold 100k+

Indicated Resource
Condor 1.140M oz Gold
Pure Gold 2.063

Valuation
Condor £53m
Pure Gold £575m

All i can say is there is plenty of room for growth for Condor and putting a £250m valuation on Condor in 12-18 months is not inconceivable as this still be a 50% discount to PG but if MC maxed out the 5m district to improve the Window dressing that Rio Tinto would be very interested.

Bid 385

It does look to me on reading the form that the directors bought roughly 40m shares at a 60% discount at $.149 and diluted shareholders by adding 7%. Looks that the directors/owners have increased their control over the company and diluted the recent investors who paid 6x for the same pleasure. I do not know the % of shares left in pi hands and how many are owned by a small number of owners but my guess is they continue to further dilute the pis. That is perhaps the negative view of this as you could argue the directors who bought these cheap shares have a reason to promote the company and grow the share price back to the IPO price which arguably would be quite easy if they just beat the drum a little and got involved in sharing contracts secured. Inner Mongolia anyone did that happen? However these warrants were awarded pre IPO so they had no reason to force the price down for cheap shares as had them awarded, for what reason i have no idea? Certainly not for achieving any milstones in share price performance? I have seen scenarios where boards drive a share price down by exactly the lack of sharing news then do a huge private placing with bonus warrants attached for themselves at crazy low prices and then ramp the hell out of the share price once they have got a large wedge of shares for themselves. however i do now wonder if they are planning another raid on the shares by some other cheap way?

Yes i totally agree and if toll agreement had happened sooner i am sure all of the below would be happening in parallel as the guarantee of cashflow would not only double shareprice, so any further dilution would be minimal but also well supported, but also go a long way to self fund the project. i would like to know timeframes for different options as i would expect if you get your finger out a lot more could be done quicker and does a second hand mine get us up and running faster than china kit? I personally liked option today to go for smaller upfront kit to get ball rolling as we have cash in bank for deposit, especially if it help shorten time to first pour, and in parallel and as soon as possible, raise money to buy the bolt on kit to go to 170k ounzes with underground. I am sure jumping to 170k is not immediate logistically anyway so there is probably a good lag of time before all corners of La India are operating to that level. I am sure its a blow to MC also that toll has need been agreed. There might be other reasons holding it up.

Frustrating as it is i am sure MC is also tearing his hair out, or what is left of it, over last 14 years at helm. We just had to have a little old lady manning the ramparts and not selling some land she probably never even visited. Everything is falling into place slowly but i think all expected news will come in before December and October could be a turnaround month. As to toll mining agreement let hope MC and Calibre find some middle gound on price and make hay while sun shines. I am sure Rio Tinto who invested in Calibre are also lurking around as they did not not move into Nicaragua just for a small agreement with Calibre. Calibre for example might want a cheeky stake in Condor as part of any agreement. News could land anytime in October.

Theoretically it could be any day we get new of TK finance as Harry in last webinar was saying that subject to that close with finance and paperwork he was expecting to come to Ethiopia in first week of October to sign off with Ethiopian government and presumably do some photo opportunity to announce to the world the single largest export project will be commencing in Ethiopia. However I think travel is more locked down than it was before but he might be still able to do it. It does however give a hint where Harry is in his plans and both recent RNS still talked of mine build starting in October and financial closure and historically pointing to multiple offers of finance. i have long expected a little delay simply because Covid has hit lawyers, accountants, ministries etc with staff issues but at the same time Harry has not said that and had many many opportunities to slow the process down. My view is that subject to financial close we will move to between 3-5p in the short-term and while the dust settles and let the magnitude of the change sinks in and then really given Kefi will make £10ms of net profit each year from first pour that should re-rate Kefi subsantially towards 2022. Then we have Hawiah and JQ to come up the rear with one of the largest Copper finds in Saudi with 75% low interest government financing and Royal family as partner and JQ who in Harrys words said can start whenever we get the license through which should be very soon.

Do you know who are key owners of CNE? to me if there is no dividend and a small minority who own a controlling stake then certain leverages to normalise the share price are not available. For example if a dividend was declared the share price would adjust based on the yield. If the company did not have controlling shareholders they might be a takeover target. Without these leverages what is the value today of CNE as how will shareholders get value from the business if the owners are not aligned. Clearly that sort of behaviour is against shareholder interests but to actually take some form of group action is probably time consuming and costly. My advice is to pursue company representing a group of shareholders and request updates or a meeting with Richard Bennett or similar. personally i have never come across a listed company that simply does not respond to shareholders on any level. By not providing any news they are creating conflicts and you then need to ask questions are they doing this on purpose for some other purpose. certainly i am very dissapointed Richard appears to ignore shareholders and the best action is for more shareholders to directly call him and email him as sooner or later he should respond.

Am i right in saying that Pembridge now has a 11% interest in the Minto mine after the recent dilution from other investors. is that likely to be diluted further due to further raises needed if Covid continues to impact costs for quarantining staff as i just want to understand the likelihood that Pembridge might be diluted further as 11% is not a great deal of exposure and would appear to reduce any control over the operation of the mine?

You would think that with china committing to go carbon neutral by 2060 it would benefit CNE in its important role in clean energy for fuel but probably since CNE are invisible to the market from a lack of basic PR we are lost and forgotten. its a massive opportunity for CNE to capitalise globally but they seem to want to stay invisible to the market and investors.

Still not a single news item on their website, that is so pathetic no company seriously investigating ethanol services would even waste time making an enquiry. How much business has CNE lost from schoolboy errors to not even do basic basic marketing?

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/27/china-carbon-pledge-put-energy-system-reverse-wind-solar