Member Info for Simms45

Starters and 30% up. Long way to go today :)

Blimey level 2 is looking exciting on the upside :)

The puzzle is solved. We have the £1bn partner listed on the LSE to get this project moving with no slip in first pour in 2022 and confirmation that Kefi will increase its beneficial interest from 45% to 65%. Let see how fast this moves :)

We have finally found a £1bn partner listed on the LSE to get this project moving with no slip in first pour in 2022 and confirmation that Kefi will increase its beneficial interest from 45% to 65%. Happy days are closing are in fast.

Sticking to Recent news updates Edison made a salient point in the 30th September RNS

“We calculate that Tulu Kapi is capable of generating free cash flow of c £65.2m a year (cf £48.8m previously) for seven years, from 2022 to 2028 inclusive. This, in turn, drives average (maximum potential) dividends of 1.62p/share for the four years from 2025 to 2028”

This is a very conservative dividend given underground and expanding the gold ounzes in the ground but even still this is from just TK. When you throw in Hawiah and JQ you can easily double and treble that dividend that is based on $1500 gold price. If we are at 1900 or high in 2022 where might dividends be?

When we land finance the express train is off and will reach its destination i suspect around 2024 for the first dividend in my view.

Remember it is when TK get finance and not if as it will happen and expectation is high it will be monday 26th or before.

No news us good news in these scenarios and based on my experience of how bad news is brought forward to lower expectations and fallout and good news is left to be released at the optimal time, which in this case is pre Ethiopia election and a nice photo op.

Last RNS on 22nd September sets the scene

“As reported post period end in July 2020 Tulu Kapi project company Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company ("TKGM") is in detailed discussions with specialist mining financiers to complete the Project finance consortium alongside the mandated senior bank lenders to the Project. TKGM is working closely with all these parties to refine the detailed terms and to complete their reviews of the recently completed independent technical expert reports. The focus remains on continuing offsite development activities, the closing of the full Project funding package in October 2020, resettlement commencing in Q4 2020, site construction in early 2021 and for gold production to commence in 2022, in line with recent guidance.”

So far in my investment relationship with Kefi Harry had delivered everything he promised and now the ANS rabble who skillfully tried to pul the rug from undeer Kefi, probably shorting Kefi for personal gain are long gone. We now are looking at up to 70% of the project and not 45% so Harry could almost double our exposure that would be a great coup to pull off. All the pieces of the puzzle are there and things are slotting into place if looked at objectively.

Lets also not forget that a certain

"Adam Taylor was appointed as a Non-executive Director on 20 July 2020 following the investment by international investment company RAB Capital, a specialist in the mining sector."

Rab have over 10% of the company and as a "specialist mining financier" you might expect them to play a strong part in getting this over the line. Would be pretty poor show if Adam Taylor and Rab Capital have not been fairly pivotal as they stand the gain the most of any investor singularly.

Be brave when others are fearful springs to mind but we should probably know on or before Monday 26th October as Harry will be having a live quarterly webinar and i know if i was Harry what sort of webinar i would be like to be having. Certainly frustrating for all but not much longer hopefully to wait. We will get the financing soon. Remember also that it was reported that as plan C the Ethiopian Government were the lender of last resort, which is not a bad plan to have in the back pocket but probably not needed given 3 months ago he said he had a lot of interest and harder job was making the selection :) Come on Harry lets create the biggest export project in Ethiopia!

Btw those 25k and 50k buys look very much like our JM nibbling. I actually hope it is not as that means little news imminent but we are back to silly season on valuation where Condor is worth less than two a penny explorers in the time old tradition of rinse and repeat but “gold in those moutains” somehow draws in the newbie, especially now. They will soon learn the placing equation and how that translates over 10 years of pain and 95% dilution. As we know when Condor does turn it will be a rapid ascendency as we will be in a tiny pool of explorers who ever make it to production.

Bear in mind when we are in production fully we would be producing the same gold output as Calibre and at a lower AISC. Therefore Condor can be worth £450m in years to come and a lot more. clearly it would be great for Calibre to make an approach as they are in a perfect place to do so and its noce to bring attention to Condor but MC and team own too much so it would need to be a friendly takeover. However takeovers only normally happen at say a 30% premium, not 300% premium as Calibre shareholders would think CEO had lost all senses. As i personally hoped would happen Calibre would agree the toll, we would kickstart full finance and mine build. we would reach £1.50 a share in about 6-12 months and then Calibre would make their offer of £2 and everyone is happy but that window would only be open for a short time because in production we would be closer to an equal of Calibre. Personally happy to see Condor through to production as dividends would quickly come into the mix as i am sure MC and other lths would expect it given the extra wait. Condor has serious value to Calibre and can see the toll deal could happen with a stake in Condor etc as if you were Calibre at £450m debt free you hold the cards at the table and sadly MCs hand is a little weak today. Things can move quickly and we could easily be over £1 by christmas with some momentum but today we just need to secure that land RNS to recalibrate the mojo and get back on that pony towards the finish line. always a few steps back before big step forward and stakes are high.

I expect Spreadex are still selling down their holding, albeit it might be a whale trader on Spreadex but Spreadex had a 6.7% holding on 8th June and we saw their holding fall to less than 3% on 15th September but we know they have continued to sell after this time from similar large sells sold in this way so there is a pattern if not a RNS anymore as it is less than 3%. As you say all good news as we move towards a new inflection point for Kefi. only around 5% of explorers get to become producers as most explorers simply run out of money/enthusiasm or sell on the license to someone else but gold mines take an enormous amount of time and money/dilution to get anywhere close to where Kefi has got to and hopefully we can get this over the line shortly. Certainly from my experience the greatest share price gains are often between finance and production as eyes move towards expected free cashflow and a proper valuation of the ounzes in the ground as while today it is something like $50 an ounze in the ground we can move towards $400+ as we know that it can be extracted. The further we get to realisation the more valuable for Kefi to drill the rest of the area and turn this into a 5m ounze play. Best of luck to all investors as we could be on the cusp of a 100% derisk to the whole of Kefi and Hawiah is a goliath in waiting.

I have been able to trade shares for last 2 months on IB but still waiting on HSBC. Its really all down to broker and how hopeless they are. I have no belief BOD are somehow waiting for all shareholders to have certs before news updates (would like to understand source). That is probably illegal as they must release price sensitive news as it happens but history shows they release almost no news. There is no sense in December to somehow release news dating back to September etc. I dont understand a BOD that can create great technology but cant spare 1 hour to provide ongoing updates. the employment of 1 PR relations manager would probably lead to a tripling of the share price over time and the only argument i can see working is it will help their sales effort. If your a foreign company looking for Ethanol production services and visited CNE you would look elsewhere. no news, errors on pages, old links to the LSE that are broken. No wonder they have never won a contract outside of the PRC. its simply off the scale how amateur the BOD are on this front and the move to HK was a £1m waste of money as there has been 0 news since moving and their credibility must be 0 in the eyes of new investors, shambles is an understatement and so far i had 1 line response from CNE. note to self do not invest in a company where the BOD do not update investors and own 50% and maybe have alterior motives to crash the share price, perhaps to buy up shares on cheap themselves or do a placing at mates rates. i hope not but BOD are not acting on any level in interest of shareholders.

50p is looking once Hawiah, TK and JQ are producing so maybe 5 years but if Kefi got all producing then surely Kefi could eb throwing off 4p dividends and a 8% yield you do get to 50p. Remember also this is based on conservative gold of $1500 from Edison report and many think gold is on a climb and for a gold producer with sub $900 AISC that is serious leverage. If gold does climb beyond $2000 then all bets are off as profits would be stratospheric. 50p is today around £940m market cap and by that point Kefi would be producing 200k+ of gold ounces a year just from TK, JQ could be 50k and who knows about Hawiah but if you go on Harrys "double again" then you are probably getting into the realms of how big Kefi could be in Copper and gold by that time. Firstly would be happy to get the finance RNS ove the line but Harry is in Ethiopia and that speaks volumes. We should move to 5p pretty quickly and then let the market see the writing on the wall once they Kefi cranks up the Hawiah BFS and JQ production. One step at a time :)

Well we can pretty much assume that Harry has found his way out to Ethiopia in the middle of a pandemic and presumably at the Oromia mining meeting with ministers in Ethiopia and not there on a jolly. This was exactly what he said he would be doing "if" everything fell into place for TK finance as presumably final signoff was needed with the government and national bank to release the funds etc If that was not the case he would probably just have dialled in on Zoom from Australia and go without the 2 weeks quarantine etc, not to mention leaving Australia at the moment is practically impossible. Lets hope Harry seals the deal over the weekend, EG get their photo and PR for creating the biggest single export project for Ethiopia. We shall see but definitely omens are looking very positive and if correct a massive coup for Kefi shareholders.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-02/ethiopia-gold-exports-surge-after-crackdown-on-smuggling
https://newbusinessethiopia.com/mining/ethiopia-plans-producing-137000-kilograms-of-gold/

I think when Harry said that the share was maybe 1.8p so while it was off the cuff in one of those webinars i thought he was thinking 36p but this sort of value was intended once Hawiah was producing. TK could be operational in 18-20 months as much of the prep work has already been done and contractors are ready to move but Hawiah is on the fast track but realistically that project is probably 4 years from producing with a very very good tail wind but JQ Harry says can be put into action whenever and appeared to be much sooner and this is 700k ounces of gold if my memory is correct. If Spreadex were not selling for the last 9 months we should be around 4-5p now but we are where we are. I would like to see 5p support created and then move to 10p as and when the market catches up. That would still be a tiny valuation in the grander scheme and there are tintop gold explorers with 10 years of grief ahead of them and £xxm of dilution to come but Kefi has already sunk $50m in TK and we are fully paid up for the financing for TK. That is a great place to be. if you ponder that 1.5p+ dividends could be just for TK you can easily imagine 6% yield numbers coming into play and then that is 25p+ for TK but that is at $1500 gold. Then you have the value of Hawiah and JQ on top. For me the value is not actually taking Hawiah to production but to probably sell this off as the scale of that resource according to Harry is enormous. Kefi has not even scratched the surface a major major might come in and take that over at a nice premium. However if we got to take Hawiah to production and was throwing off a decent dividend why not towards 50p as the yield would be comparable to the market and from a market cap perspective would be respectable but still a tasty morcel for a major.

I am sure some cash will break from the scrum when full finance is completed as effectively Kefi is up to a 70% owner in TKNG along with government and other investors and therefore it would be normal for Kefi to be paid for services out of TKNG that might originate. Certainly we know Hawiah is a magnitude larger potential project than TK and when we get finance we know 100% that Hawiah and JQ are in play. These are massive low hanging fruit and pis will be clambering over each other to get into the mix. remember Saudi offers 75% loans at silly low interest rates and we have Saudi Royal family as partner so these are a done deal once we get TK away. We are talking a massive gold and copper miner in due course but all hinges on TK financing if this all comes together. Stakes are high but the reward is much bigger. As Harry himself said TK is a 10 bagger and Hawiah is double again. His words .

Spreadex look to be walking the pony down the hill from 2.5 but spider senses are tingling. Would be nice to see that 1.4m ounze gold mine finally get built by 2022 and Edison targeting 1.5-2p dividends by 2025 and i would say that was conservative. Nice little pension plan at todays price.

There is a little indigestion at 2.5 but should clear that.

Got to hand it to Calibre that some people thought they were overpaying just over 1 year ago and now they have paid off B2gold and debt free and walk away with something like 65% of the business. Nice work guys. Certainly puts Calibre in a very strong position financially and I am sure they will rub that in a little to MC who has been pottering around trying to convince little old ladies to sell their vegetable garden :) and Condor seems to be going into reverse. We are so undervalued we are barely more than a few months of free cashflow for Calibre but potentially we are just as big once we get producing and at a higher profitability! Lets hope Calibre think strategically, do a toll deal to help lift Condor up to at least £1.50 and then for Calibre/Rio to perform the coup de grace hopefully at £2.50+ we will see but i hope we see £1 by Christmas as that should be absolute minimum if some of the expected news comes in.

This is from monday during a meeting of the ministry of mines in Adama City of Oromia Region but news that i spotted today.

Interesting timing to be in Kefis neck of the woods in Oromia for a mining meeting and talking of job creation and gold mining targets?

https://newbusinessethiopia.com/mining/ethiopia-plans-producing-137000-kilograms-of-gold/

Another mugshot of Harry :

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-02/ethiopia-gold-exports-surge-after-crackdown-on-smuggling

Is there a chance Harry is in Ethiopia and at this conference in Kefi country of Oromia? Quite a lot of coincidences me thinks :)