Member Info for Simms45

Billingham is the elephant in the room and confirmation of that project will send Eqtec into orbit as its big. Aries patent i agree is probably not imminent but confirmation that Aires run back home with their tails between their legs will welcome as it does not have a leg to stand on and even “America First” will not save it. lets also not forget the other projects expected to conclude also as there is simply too many to list. Looking forward to 1p i hope very soon.

Maybe also that buyer of 2.4m at 1.8356 knows something we dont but great to see decent buys coming in again. Could be a very shewd investment?
11:46:20 1.8356 2,400,000 Buy* 1.70 1.75 44.05k

Last trade of day was 1.8 and lse has not taken mid market but strong buying today so Kefi can move fast. Good day today and looks Tigray is getting under control so hopefully with gold looking quite steady and transformative news hopefully this month there is all to play for over coming weeks. Would like to see the otherside of 2p soon.

It took a few hours to fill but someone is happily buying merrily away and given any shrewd trader who took advantage of the Pfizer incident they could be banking profits and back to gold as reading more Pfizer vaccine has a long way to go and needs to be stored at -80, costs 10x more than Oxford proposed vaccine and you need 2 shots and we dont really know if its one off or every year! .I think investors might smell that the world might not be able to afford it or be able to distribute. Also they have say 90% effective but i wonder if the 10% ineffective is age related? i guess overtime more info will come out but i suspect market will pull back a little of the confidence as most of world cannot afford it and cannot logistically work with it so dont see airlines really cracking on as they would like on Pfizer offering. Global economy is only saved when a global vaccine at a price the world can afford and with an effective rating specifically for over 80s, incidently i think the trial excluded this age group.

Now we know why price sank UKI offloaded :) Have to say a combination of Tigray action / no news and gold price retrace has given Kefi a minor bashing and hopefully that is reaching Harry to conclude. Its good to know SB is back on board the pony as he certainly found a good time to enter. All my stocks seemed to track one another so did not have any cash down the back of the sofa but 1.5/1.6 looked a good risk/reward. Reading about Tigray situation i think EG will manage it as i am not aware the other 11 regions of Ethiopia have any interest in the conflict and sounds a classic political move to show some strength and get some concessions in the subsequent negotiations. Bear in mind i read the president fought for Tigrayans back in the day. Only news now that will send this sky rocketing is finance and not just for TK but for Hawiah and JQ. It ideally needs to happen pre december 10th as any date after this is unlikely as everyone winds down. I am still confident we could hear in next few weeks on the bank sign off. I cant remember any company i invested in hitting a target date.

I should probably be taking advice from you O&W but Kefi certainly has a chequered past, albeit my view that that it is mostly a cause of external factors, but feel there are now so many other factors carrying TK to the finish line that we will get there. Certainly without the strong involvement of the EThiopia Government as shareholder i would not be invested but TK is now of national importance to Ethiopia and the economics at $1950+ gold to investors and banks are well stacked in its favour. Fees a plenty for all involved on completion and in my experience those fees carry most projects over the line as they are substantial to the bankers and Kefi put together a gold plated BFS and so few miners invest that sort of money but it comes into its own in situations like this. For my innings Since earlier this year Harry has delivered largely on all fronts, albeit Self imposed October deadline was perhaps tricky with Covid but significant copper finds in Saudi has helped fill the sails. No one knows for sure but can weigh up probabilities of what is presented and sift the fact from fiction and come to a considered opinion. Certainly at 1.7 it seems a great opportunity as 3-5p would be credible on news and then some with Hawiah resource news that could double or even triple that opportunity. Kefi has a great pipeline but it does all hinge on TK, hence the high reward profile of Kefi.

Kefi were hard at in Ethiopia and had the whole team out at the end of October and Harry let slip in webinar to have things wrapped up in October in regards to the bank financing. I guess he could have meant November but from my experience the banks risk and credit team would probably take anywhere from a week to a month if they have any questions or need any supporting documuents. Clearly with EG fully on board the banks should be seeing that as lender of last support or certainly a very positive factor. Would be nice this week to get some RNS confirming movement although happy to wait out until we get the bank all clear. Potentially Harry might have this and actually moving a step forward and getting the term sheets binding with investors. I am hopeful we will get something substantial in November as from December 7th it is often a quiet month. Lets see how the week progresses as Biden victory will put a boot under the gold price in the medium term as he spending plans are pretty substantial but we will see.

400% in 4 years? if even half the pipeline comes together we will probably hit 400% in 6-12 months. Bear in mind there is really no limit on the demand side of the equation as the world is waking up or veing forced to change behaviour. The best thing about Eqtec is its actually profitable so its a nobrainer to embrace. Eqtec are in a league of their own as they have a business model that is simply incredible. The downside today the supply side of Eqtec where resources are limited. Imho Eqtec will be acquired within 18 months the market is so large and without even really trying we have almost every territory in the world lining up projects. We need to keep pinching ourselves we are a £35m valuation? That is ridiculous and even if it was 4x that today and more in line with PHE i doubt anyone would bat an eyelid. i can see £350m valuation being plausible in a few years as Eqtec takes highly leveraged equity stakes in key projects that can return astronomical returns over time in both capital gains but also in the revenue from the projects.

Well for one thing MC and JM have not spent 12 years and £50m to sell out just as their hands are on the prize. Secondly the acceptable price to all is too far below, how can Calibre substantiate an offer like £1.50 that might get a discussion as this is a 300 % premium. My view has always been wait until we get to £1.20 and then Calibre/Rio might sell a 50% premium to shareholders and might open serious discussions. At same time a gold mine operating is akin go a savings with withdrawals of around $240m gross on a 120k ounze mill. however at full 170k mill and toll on the side we could be eventually nudging 200k ounzes a year. Why would anyone sell the bank cheaply as gold is akin to cash. The only benefit to investors to sell early is to collect a bit more sooner but spread over 5-10 years Condor would reward investors 10 fold just on dividends over that period.

I have a feeling this might explain the tick up today but we could see some spring back in the step of Condor once this disseminates :

https://www.condorgold.com/news/press/condor-ready-soar-wh-ireland-research-note

I am sensing the calm before the storm as Billingham news could be in the next few weeks, we might get confirmation of Aries running with their tails between their legs and all manner of other projects bubbling along announced months ago. Could be plenty of fireworks, pun intended.

Gold back to 1950. I am hopeful all steps Harry and his senior team needed to do in Ethiopia have been completed and now just time before he can confirm bank finance amount and then for equity and specialist mining partners to know the exact amount they need to inject. Could be anyday really but November seems a strong contender.

Gold back to a few dollars short of 1950 but we should get back to 60s once land is finalised and the expectation of the series of RNSs after that. Still hoping a toll deal can come together and that along with other updates could well see Condor push £1 by year end. Every day we are moving forward and with MC in Nicaragua hopefully he can get these last matters over the line.

Also do you know if CNE is involved in Cellulosic ethanol or sugar based as i guess there are plenty of ways to skin a cat and given all the R&D i would hope CNE can work with a number of input materials or looking into. This article was quite interesting but not really sure the end of Ethanol is nigh :
https://www.fuelsandlubes.com/fli-article/china-pulls-plug-ambitious-fuel-ethanol-target/

60m tonnes sounds a lot but globally from a quick glance there was 1.09 billion tons of corn produced for Ethanol and just like anything the price is determined by supply and demand. if the imput material goes up then the output material goes up. Since ethanol is 10% of the mix then the price rise at the pump is very small. i understand China wants to grow its own corn but it will not be the first time i am sure that they import corn and is that not what Trump and China was all about. My suspicion is also that Ethanol is being absorbed into Sanitiser as it probably much more profitable use of ethanol as opposed to mixing with fuel. if the price of coffee rises does coffee shops close or stop selling coffee or if the price of sugar goes up does cadbury stop making chocolate? Generally they just put up the price or reduce the packet size. The logical response is they go to E5 or whatever or raise the price. I think this is a storm in a teacup but i guess we will see as the price has not budged in 2 months. I would add that Ethanol demand due to Covid has fallen a lot as lockdown restricts free movement and as far back as January 2020 the Chinese govt stopped the roll out of E10 and only encouraged and there is plenty of news on that including this article.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2136320-china-slows-homegrown-ethanol-push

Have they ever heard of importing material?

I guess we might need to wait until the full results in January unless we have an update in the meantime, but even if we won a major contract we know CNE do not announce them. The last 22 contracts were a footnote in their half yearly results. Orders in place will continue and that was £50m or so. Ethanol is on the rise globally and clearly CNE needs to expand globally and take advantage but frankly their front of house marketing is substandard and needs to considerably improve. The share price is in the freezer simply because CNE have frozen any communication with shareholders.

The ethanol market as far as i can tell is in its infancy globally and China is hardly likely to row back on their global ambitions to be seen to teach the world about clean energy. Furthermore Ethanol is looking at a 10-20 year horizon and not just as fuel but in alcohol and Covid related Ethanol for Sanitisers. The article simply says to me that demand is massively outstripping demand and E10 is not practical until they build a look for supply of Ethanol that will take 5-10 years to catchup.

The article also states the obvious that raw materials for ethanol production have risen alongside demand outstripping demand that was seen ethanol prices at pump go up. Maybe E10 is pushing it a bit hard so government might alter just so supply can catchup. Ethanol used in Sanatiser has exploded and what i suspect is ethanol is redirected to where it is most profitable.

The company had 80% takeup of their IPO shares so employees and BOD to me are more aligned more with shareholders and while i dont know the recent company share takeup that closed on 17th October document was confident it was strong demand. Why the company does not come out blowing their trumpet on clean energy and use of ethanol in sanitiser i simply do not know but the last RNS was upbeat on its order book so not sure i really think Ethanol is not in a growing market? I can agree China govt set itself too high a target but even 30% of their target rolled out to all of china and not just a few provinces will be very promising for CNE.

Great article and supporte Harry has all the right levers to get this over the line and hopefully this month. An early RNS confirming sign off by banks will seal the deal and with gold on a tear around $1910 and printing presses at the ready looking forward to Gold going a lot higher in over the next 6-12 months.

Printing presses in the US will be going at max once Democrats or Republicans get in. I think Democrats have bigger plans to print trillions so gold is going in one direction and that is up in the medium term. Hard to predict the short-term but i think most people from Lockdown 1 recognised gold rising 40%+ and the more printing the less people will believe in the value of the dollar and gold will benefit.