Member Info for Silverblade

They need to get a placing confirmed asap or there little point in preparing an annual report given cash runs out in just over 3 weeks. If the 68% quarterly growth rate is accurate - and no reason to think anything different - it would indicate that in Q4 2024 they processed 174 tests, then 292 in Q1 2025. It is perhaps unrealistic to assume they will continue that growth trajectory - however even decent double digit growth starts to ramp up quickly. Interesting few days ahead. SB

Interesting article blackfriars - thanks for posting. It would appear that the investment jury still requires a hefty yield on infra funds; maintaining the large sector discounts. This is despite a generally lower inflation outlook into 2026, lower interest rates and one would hope at some point a reduction in bond pricing. But the world remains a fragile place - trump, putin, netanyahu mainly to blame on that count - but starmer, badenoch and farage not exactly premier league politicians. As for INPP - its frustrating that the capital erosion has effectively wiped out the dividends in the last 12/18 months - but unless you have to sell then its not a complete disaster. The issue of any future offer would relate to what the business is really worth - I and am sure others here don't believe the current NAV represents the full picture with a large discount rate and undervalued businesses - you would think this is where M+A activity would be more up front as there is clear value there. SB

Might be they go for an immediate fundraise after todays general meeting - especially if it compromises a placing which would happen pretty quickly and a retail offer which may take a bit longer depending on the process. That way the results would be able to incorporate news of a successful fundraising and recapitalised balance sheet alongside the 2024 numbers. SB

The last fund raise included a small retail investor opportunity oogle so it is possible existing shareholders will be given an opportunity to participate. The circular also notes this is under consideration. From memory the issue was small and all shares were taken up so there may a bit of a scramble via brokers with a scale back if they can get the main raise away. As for future value - company valuation peaked at c.£30m in 2020 and again in 2023 - reflecting the optimism around the company's progress. In some ways - given the current market cap - the fund raise is like a mini IPO - a recapitalisation to fund the company's attempts to grow its testing sales to the point of profitability. Only now they have all the pieces of the jigsaw in place, funding and sufficient revenue aside. SB

Vrci's CEO is not a scientist.....she is a qualified chartered accountant and her previous experience includes CFO roles. She was previously CEO at Lunglife AI and remains a director of that business which is in the process of being delisted from AIM with its patents and licence agreements being sold off. Similar to vrci, she holds no stock - take from that what you will. So - imo the current best case scenario here is for a fund raise to be successful - if not the alternatives are likely to be similar to Lunglife. The implications for shareholders will clearly depend on how much is raised and the placing price. Raise £5m at 1p a share = 500m new shares = 200% dilution for current holders. Go for a larger raise and its pro rata dilution - company has the facility to issue up to 2b shares. Company is due to issue 2024 accounts in a couple of weeks so will get an indication of current operational cost/losses which need to be covered via fund raise and an indication of likely revenue growth which must be a precursor for investors prior to committing future funds. I guess a question for us all - IF they can get a fund raise away - is the risk appetite there to purchase more shares in an attempt to mitigate the heavy dilution. SB

Price was moseying around the low 20's this morning after another poor start to the week - then around lunchtime a lot of automatic trades started to emerge - that may have been a trigger point and these systems often feed off each other - there wasn't exactly a lot of volume going through yet the 'A 'trades kept increasing with a bit of punter activity thrown in as opportunity knocked. Looks like most were buys despite their labelling. Perhaps someone is going to test the business with an offer, perhaps a contract has been secured, perhaps its just the trading systems.......whatever it is - and despite its recent woes - current valuation is way below where it should be imo. SB

I hear you oldbut!! In the meantime - UK 10 year bond yield continues to creep up close to its 5 year high - with resultant negative impact on majority of infra funds this week. INPP still spending c.£500k a day on buybacks......SB

I can't see anything which references vrci being a mandatory test - that would be quite an extraordinary position to achieve. There is reference to the test being embed in clinical pathways at transplant centres in the US if that is what you are referring to - which I would agree seems a very positive move. Renx's test has " been included in the KDIGO (Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes) clinical practice guideline for the evaluation and management of CKD.....the KDIGO committee highlighted the role of risk prediction in guiding care for patients. In this context, KidneyIntelX is recommended for use as an externally validated tool for predicting disease progression in people with CKD stages G1-G3." SB

How is spooking punters with the facts misleading donmac? Neither you nor I have any idea what the scale of the fundraise will be - and the facts are the company will have the provision to allot up to 2b new shares if required. As for deramping - are you being serious? I guess it could get worse from here but with a market cap of c.£3m and trading at c.1p a share there's not really far to go is there - although when the new shares are issued all existing shareholders will have their positions diluted by however many new shares are placed. And Renx - again really? Aside from the significant links between vrci and renx (Spin outs from ekf; common shareholder base; reliance on Mount Sinai Licensing agreements; focus on kidney disease, regulatory milestone achievements) - renx is the only FDA approved, AI driven diagnostics business in the CKD space with medicare reimbursement at $950 a pop. SB

From the fundraising circular:

" Resolution 1 – an ordinary resolution seeking general authority for the Directors to allot and issue up to 2,000,000,000 new Ordinary Shares."

".....if the Resolutions are not approved by Shareholders at the General Meeting, the Company will not have the necessary allotment authorities to proceed with the Fundraising as proposed and issue all the Fundraising Shares it currently anticipates issuing pursuant to the Fundraising. As such, the anticipated net proceeds of the Fundraising would not become available to the Company. There is no certainty that other funding would be available on suitable terms or at all. Accordingly, in light of the Group’s financial position, it would be likely that the Company would be in financial difficulties in the near future and the board would need to consider alternative options for the future of the Company. "

The potential has always been there - but at a huge cost to current investors. Guess that's nothing new on AIM. SB

Its possible buyback programme has completed and its back to selling price pressure with no buyback support. Valuation seems nonsense buts its not alone in that regard...SB

If I was living in blissful ignorance of the realities of AIM listed fund raising Sandyman I would say it will be a hefty premium to the current share price reflecting the company's future potential! But alas.......given the company has provided no guidance on the price or scale other than to confirm its game over if if cant get a placing away - then its anyone's guess and largely depends on where the share price/market cap is in a couple of weeks as that will be used as the starting point for an II placing (with potential retail offer as well). SB

Looking at a total loss of equity for existing investors - what a complete disaster for holders. Up to 2b new shares going to be placed. A great example of a clinically focused biotech (eventually) which wipes out both institutional and retail investors alike. SB

Good points all - and nothing in your post Mikemine to criticise - the only criticism is how badly vrci have handled market communications recently which led to the price decimation which was laid at the door of Amati which we now know was not the case. The market capitalisation will increase as the fund raising is undertaken - however it is from a pitifully low position which will add to the level of dilution for exiting shareholders. I also hold Renx - pretty sure others will be in the same position given both were spun out of ekf diagnostics. Renx - who are likely to achieve revenue of $3.2m and a significant ebitda loss in it latest financial year to June 2025 is currently valued at c. £26m. Vrci will have a larger turnover than that through its licencing deal (accept its a one off) a smaller ebitda loss and is valued at less than £4m. There are differences over future market opportunities, current cash position etc - but essentially both benefit from agreed pricing reimbursement in the kidney diagnostic space fully covered by Medicare and are demonstrating current and growing sales of c.$1m (Renx) and $800k (Vrci) per quarter. Just another example of the complete madness in current biotech stock pricing and in particular the disparity evident here. SB

They currently have the authority to issue an additional 20% share capital oogle....but that's not gong to touch the sides. Amount required depends on whether they price to get through this year with better numbers and hence a better position for future raises; or try and get £5m+. I assume that EIS/VCT still applies so likely placing investors will be getting shares for c.1p - based on current share price with a 10% discount and 30% EIS tax relief. Last placing they made a small number of shares available to retail investors at 9p. Probably not great news for share price on Monday morning. SB

Buyback programme looks to be making an impact - they have ramped up scale and are now purchasing 425k shares a day - 3%+ of total shares now held in treasury and off market. Interest rates reducing helps investor sentiment - but bond yields still high and lots of government debt to refinance. Hopefully we will see the NAV discount continuing to reduce. INPP is something of a hybrid when compared to 3iN - with INPP holding investments in historical PPP/PFI debt; regulated infrastructure assets as well as operating businesses. 3iN is more geared to operating businesses - its PPP portfolio was divested some time ago. INPP NAV valuation largely based on discounted cash flow methodologies - but this does not reflect underlying operating business valuations - which is where there is scope for INPP to realise significant balance sheet value imo. SB

Fair bit of activity recently - 5.4m shares purchased at an average of 21/22p - certainly takes their spending over the £1m allocation announced at the time of the original buyback notification. Not significant in the grand scheme of things - and never likely to make any real impact on the share price given the scale. AGM on 20th - should get a statement on the day updating Q1 trading - which might move the dial if at long last the company can show it is growing its revenues and can secure some customers for its shiny, empty South Bend fermentation facility.....SB

I was just trying to remind myself why I stay invested here unhooked! Very little interest in the shares at the moment - but lets be honest that's hardly a surprise given the last 2 years here - still a lot to prove to show commercial acceptance is going to achieve the momentum required to ramp up test sales. Q4 numbers will be the latest benchmark I guess - triggers a chunk of shares options if they achieve the $3.2m which will be achieved with minimal growth from Q3 - although lets hope they can maintain/exceed the 20% quarterly growth.

BBH looks like they had an interesting market intervention through their zero discount policy - and appear to be trading pretty much at current NAV although I can see there has been some significant changes to NAV. I hold a number of infrastructure trusts with decent yields - but all trade on discounts to NAV - ranging from 10-30%. Bonds, gilts, interest rates to blame apparently......SB

......and here was us thinking an FDA approved product with medicare coverage using AI technology to provide a unique CKD test for 14 million US citizens would be enough.......doh! SB

I assume there's some tricky conversations going on in the background. Company is currently spending c.$9m pa to run itself - so lets assume in simple terms it needs to sell c.3500 Tutivia pa @$2650 tests to break even. There are other income streams - the PRTA licence agreements with Thermo and services revenue - but these are less reliable at the moment (delays, revenue revisions). So the equity raise realistically needs to cover the shortfall this year; and to breakeven - possibly 2026 or 2027. Alongside this - I would also expect pressure to reduce overheads - which was alluded to in the vox interview in relation to Protega - with a cut in R+D likely. They have their 334 tests revenue to carry over from 2024; plus 292 Q1 sales and remainder of year. Clearly a lot will depend on the current sales momentum and adoption in additional transplant centres - which lets face it will be a critical factor in the fund raise. Company is due to report its 2024 results end of month - would make sense to align announcements around that date based on audited accounts. Meanwhile the waiting game is pretty grim for current shareholders who wait to see level of dilution - which unfortunately remains a best case scenario.....unless Thermo make a move. SB