Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Let’s hope it’s a Xmas present you don’t want to return and repurchase in the January sales :-) SB
Funnily enough Be4C I was thinking the same myself….the 10k ‘sale’ at 12.06 was also a buy. Let’s hope our timing was correct! SB
I guess I was mostly surprised at the vote against mount Sinai’s rep Hawker - pretty much our only customer - although how those tests are paid for has always concerned given their role in clinical studies hence the recent references to billable revenue is much more encouraging. We are in a quiet period and would agree there are small volumes being traded but it’s still disappointing that we have seen no director or institutional interest. Quite a quarter coming up….ATB. SB
There are some troubling messages which have once again surfaced in the results of AGM resolutions. Aside from the general kick back on director remuneration (Article 2 - 80% for, 20% against), there was a reasonable vote against reappointing C. Mills as a director (6% against + a further c.20% withholding their votes) and even more worrying there was a large vote against reappointing Mount Sinai's non executive director Erik Lium (83% for, 17% against) - Erik sits on the remuneration committee so there may be a link back to Article 2 voting - or what's the issue with Mount Sinai? All directors voted in favour of all resolutions (representing 37% of all shares issued) so - somewhere, a number of parties controlling c.10% of the companies shares (which have not individually reached the 3% declaration threshold) are not happy with Mills, Sinai and general director compensation and are making their voice's heard - albeit all resolutions were carried. Not great that we have lost almost all the gains of recent weeks - in a generally improving market. SB
I would not underestimate the role of kestrel/max in this event. It highlights the important pivot of growth v value - and after 10 years and in the current market shareholder expectations are clearly focused on creating higher value returns than has been achieved in recent years. Take nothing away from ben though - outstanding achievement and he leaves with his head held high. SB
It will be interesting to see what additional info is released beyond that which accompanied the full year results - namely the 1200 tests in Q1 fiscal 2023 (974 Sinai - the balance possibly through the medicare case by case reimbursement processed in NY). Think we will have to wait until Q2 to see the effect of the cost savings - so expect we will have burned another c.$12m+ first quarter so likely we will be sitting with c.$30m cash which should see us through to the start of fiscal 2024 if savings are achieved and revenue steps up. Local Medicare approval, FDA approval and meaningful partnership announcement essential milestones - nothing new there but clearly time is running out given the need to raise capital Q2/Q3 - and that's going to get more uncomfortable the closer we get - but there is the growing likelihood of major catalysts to lessen the pain. ATB for next week all. SB
Looks like Friday's uptick was linked to a positive research note issued by Singer Capital Markets London office with a 167p target - with more to come. SB
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12.29p per share will be paid to shareholders on 18th November 2022 - via crest or cheque if you hold paper certificates. No actions required from shareholders. Bittersweet end for what might have been. SB
Hawker - let’s hope another one of our shared interests - ekf - doesn’t fit into the post covid biotech privatisation model….! Still see a decent upside there. SB
Pretty much sums it unhooked! Sourcebio did very well from covid testing but looks like they want to restructure the business away from public eye - with a likely exit for remaining investors in a few years - similar to a private equity deal, I guess. Different dynamics at play with renx which requires its listing to access capital markets for future funding- probably.....SB
Those that bought into the recent results both here and in the US are now fellow members of the Renx disappointment club. The slide has come on very small trading volume - as you have noted unhooked there is a poor trading market at present. I am hoping the recent bounce was not driven by market makers to allow some to exit at the recent highs (not that they were exactly highs). That said - the news yesterday that sourcebio - another Christopher Mills play - is being taken private will not help sentiment here. SB
Cheers Hawker - in many ways I don't actually think the daily price volatility means anything here to long term investors - those still here and still buying (good effort BTW) think there's a positive future starting to appear on the horizon in which case the price will likely be many multiples of where we are today. Small volume trading will continue to create short term disappointment imo. Fully agree that it would be good see some II interest - strange we have had no RNS holding clarification on the 8m share trades day a few weeks ago. SB
I almost surprised myself unhooked! There was a slight temptation to sell last week - but the upside here outweighs what I have left - I’m down 80% - but as I noted there are upcoming events which could have a material impact here so im staying put. As I also said recently - there’s a chance they can pull this off - the issue is how much shareholder value is at risk to get there. It’s the gamble we all remain part of. ATB. SB
I think this was always going to happen unhooked - we saw an almost 100% increase from our low in the 40's to the mid 90's peak following the results - but it does show how quickly things could move when/if we get some of the major milestones achieved. The day FDA gets RNS'd may provide the best opportunity to trade out on a spike - although at that point the real fun might begin. Again! SB
Blackrock are continuing to exit their CFD position - down from a high of 11m shares in May this year to 6.5m today with 2.1m latest positions closed. Looks like some of the CFD's purchases may actually be coming from their overall long position. Good to see the positive impact flowing into an improving share price. SB
I’m sure rus. mmx is based in the British Virgin Isles - the business you are looking at is one of its UK subsidiaries which as you note is now no longer in existence. SB
Thanks andypa - I’m still sitting behind the sofa on this particular investment! However - some optimism starting to emerge after an awful 12 months. One thing not covered is going to become increasingly relevant - capital - and there must be work going on behind the scenes. SB
andypa - did you pick up the sept test volume from the web call - I must have missed that? Agree that would be a step in the right direction - more importantly who are we billing for the tests as they would be a good indicator of future take up. SB
Just got a chance to read the results in detail and listen to some of the webcast. On first review this morning I did not expect to see the share price sitting at c.90p close of play - I expected a retraction following the medicare bump last week, not for the full year 2022 results which were as expected - but a lower than anticipated Q1 2023 revenue of $1m as has been noted here, the highest quarterly cost to date in Q4 2022 - almost $18m, and just over $41m left in the bank. Offsetting that - there is clearly a significant amount of 'nearly there' business - if we had matched Sinai's c.950 tests with others (instead of the 250) then we can start to see how the commercialisation model needs to work. As ever - time is not on the company's side. Reference to a cash runway into 2024 is misleading - I take if this refers to fiscal year 2024 - which starts in June 2023 - and there was a major caveat this is based on anticipated revenue growth. Reading between the lines you could conclude the company is banking on securing FDA/local medicare approval in Q3 2023 (Jan - March) based on the part conclusion of its real-world study programme which will hopefully align with the referred to increase in test volumes alongside the planned cost reductions to show a business into which investors are prepared to inject capital in the latter part of its 2023 fiscal year. Exciting and equally terrifying for those who are still gambling on McCullough actually pulling this off. SB
Quite a bit of activity post yesterdays announcement - including a broker note from investec which rates shares as a buy with a £3 price target (under review) and a generally optimistic commentary. They have estimated revenue of $2.9m 2022; $10m 2023; $24m 2024. Still considerable losses during those periods but more importantly those revenues would make a major difference to market sentiment imo - and ability to raise required funding. SB