Member Info for Silverblade

Donmac - there is currently no boat to miss. Based on this latest update there has been zero growth in test sales from Q1 to Q3 - with Q4 likely similar if company meets it 'market expectations' of $3.2m tutivia revenue in 2025 (c.1200 tests). Cash burn still significant - and unless H1 2026 pulls the rabbit out of the hat then further dilutive fundraising will be required. Changing the measurement metric to physician growth is just another mask. Hoping they can share some actual targets tomorrow rather than this % fluff. SB

More false dawns from Sara. Whatever happened to the 20% quarter by quarter test sales growth target. SB

Madness indeed. Sector wide - but GCP amongst the worst hit. Gravis have failed to deliver on their asset sales programme - and I suspect future sales will be below NAV which is already back to IPO after 15 years of ‘growth’. At some point IIs may look for a continuation vote akin to GABI. SB

4.66p EPS is for 6 months….looking at 9.2p FY. PE less than 6x earnings. Still lots to go here. SB

I wonder over what time period the 55k tests were undertaken. Can you imagine where Renx would be if it was hitting 55K tests annually! And that's still just a tiny % of the market. The NHS is in dire straits sadly....similar to where we are here at present based on interest in the shares.....SB

GABI might not been a great example bunsen as it is the process of being wound up - although 10% divi and capital uplift once assets are divested in the meantime. I like GCP and have held for many years. However - there are some issues which are not ideal. Firstly - the dividend is effectively frozen at 7p - peer group generally have inflation linked dividend growth. Secondly - peer group have realigned their annual management fee arrangements to a % of current market cap v NAV. GCP managers are refusing to budge on this one - this is more about recognising shareholders interests above manager sentiment . Thirdly - asset sales are coming in below NAV - leading to downward revisions. NAV is back to where it was when GCP floated 15 years ago. Take inflation into account and its pretty disastrous. Fourth - earnings do not currently cover dividend payments. The portfolio itself has an average life of 10 years - with no new investments being made at present. Finally - as I have noted previously - portfolio has some riskier assets which are exposed to price fluctuations. The main upsides are the 10% dividend; and the feeling that the NAV discount will unwind over time. All imo. SB

Amidst all the doom and gloom going around - both in general and in this sector - these interims show INPP is rock solid. Significant buyback programme with cash to deliver; strong investment pipeline; asset sales at NAV or better; management fee realigned to market cap; clear value in the portfolio over current NAV; and inflation linked dividend growth. As you say oldbut - a clear winner to have and hold - for years to come. SB

Think its the 15th Sept oldbut - a wee bit longer to wait! Pity as there are some good opportunities to reinvest at the present. Although they might be even better by the middle of the month :-) SB

Bunsen - my advice fwiw - you can be overweight on one stock - but no harm in a bit of diversification. I used my GCP dividend to start a position in TRIG! I also hold Gabi, INPP and RECI. SB

I’m not sure anymore. The fall from Grace has been so spectacular I don’t know if there is a feasible recovery. They must evidence the targeted 20% quarterly growth or I fear for the future here. I still hold, wish i had bailed years ago. SB

Bunsen - there are some areas of the GCP portfolio that are not pure PPP/PFI style government backed revenue projects i.e. there are some areas of risk in relation to electricity prices; social housing projects; and projects where there is equity exposure. For those reasons - the market has applied a sector leading discount to its NAV. The hope is the company will be able to exit those riskier asset classes (even if there is a limited impact on NAV); which will help close the NAV gap. That said - they have been attempting this for the last 18 months with limited success. SB

That's my understanding Servalan - weekly trading activity takes them above and below 5% on a regular basis - but generally they hold c.5%. Pretty grim when that's the only issue worth discussing at present. We just have no idea how the company is currently trading. By the time of the results end of this month (I assume) they will not only have to declare FY 2025; but will know Q1 2026 numbers. Based on current share price and trading (UBS aside...) there's little in the way of positive expectations......SB

Just when we think infra trusts are out of the woods - UK plc debt, 10/30 year bond yields loom over the sector again. INPP has demonstrated the unrealised value inherent within its portfolio and yet still trading at a significant discount again. Goodness knows what will happen over coming weeks, months pre-budget. Can't see it being any good. SB

There is the potential for a major economic shock - such as reeves being removed - which could see markets move quite rapidly - and the crazy reality is they could go either way. I don't see a scenario so bad GCP needs to pay an 11% yield - at 10% its already paying a 5%+ risk premium over the 10 year bond yield. Think its dividend day tomorrow - probably quite a bit of reinvesting at this price. SB

Looks like money markets are back to pricing in higher UK borrowing costs - and with a budget on its way which somehow needs to balance its books - we could see further pressure on yields. Majority of income generating trusts been hammered last few days. GCP nudging ever closer to 10% again. SB

5m shares traded today - 4.8m in three trades. Buybacks? Or good news coming in our leaky ship….SB

Good to see some decent news flow ahead of the H1 results mid sept. The real game changer in terms of investor sentiment would be to see some fermentation contracts secured - sounds like they are getting close. Cash pile growing each month - possible they might reintroduce dividend - not particularly efficient having £20m on the balance sheet end of year. SB

Pretty reasonable summary as to the current state of play bunsen. Other factors impacting on sentiment and price include price of bonds, gilt yields, interest rates, inflation, remaining equity exposures in portfolio (electricity prices) and the relatively high discount rate being applied to assets by its valuation agent Mazars. A 9% risk adjusted return still seems pretty high compared to peer group. SB

Perhaps momentum was the wrong word Trotsky.......'buyback scale' fits better. I agree its pretty desperate stuff - and I don't actually know what price would be seen as keeping the share price above water. I hold sister company GABI which is effectively being wound up and INPP as well with both suffering the same discount fate as GCP - although not on the same scale. In some ways I am less concerned as I am an investor here for the decent income stream - but seeing a loss of capital is still not really acceptable when the assets are so heavily discounted. I originally thought when the £50m return was originally mooted some 18 months ago it would be a special dividend - I think most did - and the price has never really recovered when that transpired to be a buyback programme.

As we enter the final third of the year, with still no sale of the supported living portfolio, you start to question what the long term future is for GCP. As I understand, should that sale occur, the weighted average life of the loan book is 7 years, 6 next year. That has got some serious questions about where this is heading - and whether there will be an attempt by II's to force a continuation vote and recover cash closer to NAV. SB

Who knows - a few days ago price was 80p - even held up well when it went ex-divi. But majority here hold for income - and some will have gone elsewhere before next divi in December. Plus markets are due a correction after strong recent gains. NAV discount has been here for a long time and something major needs to happen for that to be corrected. I hope further asset sales are announced in coming months and buyback momentum continues. SB