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Cant be long now donmac….surely? As you have noted previously - wonder how nasdaq will finish this week in anticipation. SB
A few days after a positive update. Inflation, interest rates and govt bonds killing this sector. Almost 40p off year high. Madness. SB
Agree on your AIM point donmac - must be a real possibility of a full Nasdaq listing here assuming FDA approval. The future is US funded. Todays deal seems like it is putting in place the building blocks to sell tests without committing to a single pharma - makes sense. Although no detail on the actual commercial detail! SB
I think its more like 95/5 in favour of FDA approval being granted - if all the clinical evidence and supporting data does not secure approval then goodness knows what you need to process to achieve regulatory approval - and I cannot imagine they will get another shot. It would likely be game over and taken private for pennies based on the importance placed on FDA by the market. The reclassification order update would lead you to believe FDA will grant de novo. In which case I would expect a significant price hike. Less than 3 months ago the price spiked at £1.50 (placement was 90p) based on anticipated approval - so it would seem reasonable to assume there will be a decent uplift. In the background there is still the Medicare local coverage determination going through its approval - which would be another significant event to ease the approval and simplicity around test sales. All imo. SB
Looks like a few smaller holders have decided not to hang around in case Armageddon arrives. As usual price gets hammered on low volume. Tick tock. SB
Thanks for sharing Datron - quite a mix you have going on there - and I note you are quite hands on with your trading which shows you are well briefed in your investments. Years ago I looked at CNIC when it was 40p.....and instead opted for its peer MMX. On reflection I should have hedged and gone 50/50.....hindsight eh! In the end I picked up CNIC...but over £1 average - lets hope the market start to place some value there again soon. As for EKF - it could drift a bit lower - but I think we are close to a 'bottom' based on what we know - and assuming fermentation is all successfully commissioned and customers complete orders - this has decent prospect of a material recovery imo. SB
Although good news - and presumably ties in with the plan to achieve 'super majority' insurance coverage in key target markets - the company has consistently not provided any evidence that any of its clients are actually buying test kits beyond Mount Sinai - which itself has recently come to the end of its $6m test support package. Q4 results will be hugely important to see if private and public payers are actually willing to pay for tests via primary care physicians - despite all the clinical and financial evidence that it makes sense for target populations and budget holders. Until that comes announcements such as these are relatively meaningless imo. SB
Hi Hawker . Out of interest do you know who the seller is? I accept there may be some impact on the price if there is someone offloading - and look at the 4m share trades notified after hours tonight which look like sells. Against that - Liontrust and Gresham have both been adding in decent numbers so they appear to be picking up the seller interest - and you would think this would balance up. I don't think we will see any positive momentum until H1 results in autumn - although we should get a trading update before which could help. For me it doesn't help that our house broker doesn't seem to have any appetite for price support - but I go back to the management team on that count. NIOX has enjoyed a good run of late - so there is hope here. SB
Renaytix was first granted breakthrough device designation for KidneyIntelX by the FDA in May 2019. Four years later we are still waiting for full de novo marketing authorisation signalling regulatory approval. There comes a point where any further delays are just ripping the michael. The special AGM on 8th June appears aligned to the presumption that FDA approves - and allows further fund raising to take place thereafter through the issue of up to c.50m shares - although the company could have waited until its standard AGM in December 2023 to put this into motion - however realistically based on current expenditure and income the cash runway only provides to end of this year. A negative response from FDA is unthinkable. Looks like June 2023 is make or break - FDA, fund raise approval , Q3 fiscal year results and end of 2023 trading year. SB
Dartron - in 20 years of investing I have never seen an investors market like the current one - major events (russia, pandemic, sub-prime type stuff) aside. I have looked at the holdings of recent posters here - and we share investments in companies such as Centralnic, Verici, Sigmaroc, Renaltyix - and none of these are exactly stellar performers - although some fall into the category of having milestone events due which may trigger revaluation. I also have some shares in UK infrastructure funds - some of which which are delivering the 7% yield you mention - but all with substantial price discounts to their NAV as a result of BoE interest rate monetary policy providing near 5% zero risk interest rate availability. So great if you chase yields, poor on capital return until interest rate rises cease and start to reduce - but looks like that's 2024. The smart position appears to be in cash......but where's the fun in that :-D. EKF, with its core business likely to do £50m in 2023, plus whatever life science can throw up (£5m?), with £11m cash and a divi close on 5%, EBITDA north of £10/12m (?) - looks like it should recover and does appear to have significant II support - but its very very painful to be a holder for now. SB
while you are mentioning investor sentiment to baines vig you might want to remind him of the substantial bonus he and the cfo enjoyed in 2022 from the value creation (each was paid £2.5m bonus - more than the entire shareholder divined allocation) 'theoretical exit' nonsense the remuneration committee made up to line their pockets. all that 'value creation' and more is now gone. the fact our previous ceo who was responsible for part of the current ****shw as unhooked delicately put it remains in the business having been at the helm as the business bought and sold adl damaging the overall valuation to the tune of £200m+ is as mind boggling as the bonus he was being lined up for - little chance of that being achieved now. the reality is don't have a ceo, we do have a disinterested chairman, a cfo who must be wondering what he has got himself into (although looking at the historic bonuses i can imagine what sold him on the idea) and three non-execs who don't appear to be challenging decision making. sb
Aside from congratulating Dartron on his prediction last month, Like Hawker I wonder at what point the company should consider a strategic review to see if there are any suitors who could do a better job with the companies business interests ? Barnes has made it clear he doesn't want to be in the hot seat and without a focused CEO what can we expect here. We have now lost almost 75% of our peak valuation - which in itself is dreadful alongside the acquisition failures. The uncertainty over further unquantified impairment costs is clearly unsettling - why this was not taken into 2022 I have no idea - with the net result on the shareholder proposition plain for all to see. What a mess - and yet all avoidable with the correct leadership, governance and decision making. Razor, razor. lol. SB
Its not just the VA which has been disappointing blue - despite a substantial sales force in place there still seems little in the way of test sales take up. All the partnerships. health systems, insurance contracts in place - and yet we continue to be almost 100% reliant on the original $6m evidence driven testing contract with Sinai. And now that $6m has been used - we are told that the month of March (and thus Q3) has been poor as the company transitions into a 'commercial insurance payment model'. We have no local coverage determination with Medicare yet - so we now appear to reliant on a case by case approval (which is not sustainable), private insurance coverage which has had minimal take up so far despite talk of millions of lives covered and the slow take up an all other public partnerships. So no wonder when asked to give some guidance on revenue going forward they ducked the question - they simply don't know. The company has only recently started to be transparent on quarterly testing volumes - 1200 in Q1, 1300 in Q2, ? (less than 1300) in Q3 and goodness knows what in Q4 without the core Sinai evidence programme in place. Q4 news flow should see FDA and Medicare LCD - but crucially there needs to be some traction/evidence that the US health market is prepared to purchase Kidney tests in volume - or all the great evidence, clinical models, $$B's of potential savings and tens of millions of improved patient outcomes will amount to a great white elephant. SB
LST appears to have taken investor shafting to a whole new level. Seemed such a decent food production innovation but in hindsight it’s quite literally pie in the sky! SB
As noted by others thanks for sharing your response vig. I am a bit perplexed by the claim that 3 of that top 5 holders in SRC have liquidated all their stock. For one - there does not appear to have been any RNS announcements on such significant II reductions; and further it would be one heck of a 'coincidence' that all three chose to exit in the same time period without a trigger. Suggesting investors should look forward to the uplift in activity is all fine and well - but the evidence of the last 18 months suggests otherwise - SRC have now spent/raised £600m and have a market cap less than £400m, price is back to its 2020 placing price, valuation is 3.5 EBITDA, debt is close to covenant ceiling, zero shareholder return from free cash flow. But its OK we managed to produce our legally required accounts on time and Breedon are going to the main market so we might pick up some of their AIM investors. If this is a strategy to deliver shareholder value then quite frankly I expect much better. SB
Vig - my comment on black rock wasn’t directed at anyone in particular - more we can’t lay the blame for what’s happening here on them alone. The point on using free cash flow for acquisitions rather than further diluting shareholders would be ok if the company had any intention of delivering a return to shareholders in addition to its acquisition trail. FCF of £50m pa sounds great but interest payments are going to eat into that over the coming years. A guess it’s the usual tale of this time next year….only in this case it’s this time in 3-5 years, maybe. Meanwhile we are making a small management team very wealthy. SB
Blackrock have been playing around at the 10% level for the last six months - and to blame them for the current mess here makes no sense. It is clear that the company intends to plough on purchasing bolt on acquisitions, deferred consideration commitments and secured pipeline regardless of the short/medium term cost to shareholders. The market recognises these purchases need to be made through rights issues, placings - so existing shareholders will continue to be diluted hence the rush to exit. Being a good 'operational' company does not mean it is a good investment - in this regard the last two years have shown this has been a bad investment by those of us who have an interest here. The directors all received their full bonus entitlement in 2022 despite the share price cratering, with share options continuing to accrue and not even a veiled offering to smooth shareholders concerns on the lack of any return. Oh - and remember there is the small issue of the term loan repayments coming on line big time this year. Still, its only investors money. Good old AIM. SB
Buyback appears stopped or on hold. At this price you would think they would be piling in. Hit 8% yield and yet nothing but sellers in the market. Beginning to think there may be more to this decline than market dynamics. SB
Sounds like Baines has been busy - and yes I think its safe to assume anything lab related (Covid, NIPT etc) has gone with ADL. Looks like they have attempted to further simplify the business into two core operations (1) Point of Care and Central Laboratory and (2) Life Sciences and Contact Manufacturing. Basically back to where the business was in 2019 pre covid with a decent core c.£45m revenue business growing at 10%+ pa in (1) and the now c.$15m enzyme investment looking to grow much increased life sciences revenue in (2). Looks like they are trying to get poor news out the way ahead of next Tuesday, with the exception of the exceptional restructuring costs. SB
Bought for $10m…..sold for $1m. Only positive was the deal was all share. But compounded with ekf then purchasing 9m buyback shares at c40p to create some ‘value’ - more money thrown at the problem. Complete disaster and makes you seriously wonder about BOD competence. SB