The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Apologies jatw - looks like you were spot on! I did say this was a month for the jitters - still waiting on the milestone rich RNS schedule…..expect we will see a small move down in the morning to follow Nasdaq, unless……SB
I think it’s just a bit of price drift after a pretty decent run over the last couple of months - up over 100% - and we have slipped 10% from recent high of £1.50. Seems March is world kidney month - you would think if an FDA announcement was going to be made - this would be the month to do it…..SB
Of all the duff Mills/Harwood stocks I have - Niox is the only one (recently) in profit - and I actually sold some to buy more ekf, Renx, Vrci. Maybe not so duff after all. Interesting trades as you note oogle - maybe just cashing in on the recent gains. SB
I know the market for investment fund shares such as GCP is poorly due to wider economic issues - but is there more to this than just the market? Almost a 7.5% divi on current price and a full 20p below NAV - £180m. High inflation should help NAV each quarter this year - why such a huge disconnect. Are the fund managers earning their fees. SB
Good effort bladerunner - can’t go wrong taking a profit. Still wishful thinking for me….I need the share price to double for that to occur. That’s interesting about fidelity Hawker - I was looking to see who else had bought into the placing but no luck getting any details. Last I saw was Randy B at pinnacle who went in again in Dec 22 - good timing - hopefully…..SB
Suspect there’s going to be quite a few jitters this month - there is an air of expectation around FDA - only a few weeks left in Q1 2023. Half year results due end of month as well. Doesn’t really bear thinking what will occur should there be a negative from the FDA, so let’s think about what happens when we get a positive - surely that’s the reason we have Jefferson. SB
I trade with interactive investor - and they have recently inserted a general restricted holding position for my allotted shares in my accounts - although do not indicate the actual quantified allocation (it was 1 Vrci for every 50 ekf) and as noted shares are in lock up until late June 23. SB
Argee Chelsea - I like to think a great deal of thought is being given to an updated investor presentation with robust, tested timescales for the new fermentation capacity in particular - including where we sit in relation to customer onboarding given they seem to be influencing specification. The core business is more than capable of double digit organic growth. H1 2023 could be a bit tricky with reorganisation costs - but this is not a complete basket case - far from it - but no more screw ups or your point on breeding confidence evaporates. SB
If further proof was required that the management team do not consider real world shareholder value - please see following extracts from last annual report in relation to how the 125% director bonuses are calculated.
" The 2021 annual bonus targets were linked to both Underlying EBITDA and EPS growth which tracks
improvements in the profitability of the Group and returns to the shareholders."
" For 2022, the executive directors will continue to have the opportunity to earn a bonus of up to 125% of salary.
The bonus will be subject to stretching performance conditions based on Underlying EBIT and EPS."
So - makes it rather easy to pay out full bonus despite a 40% fall in shareholder 'value' in the last 12 months.
And you wonder why BlackRock were selling and we remain at such a low market value. SB
So - 27 days until we hear what's really been going on - assuming Baines will want to offload previous issues to Salter's account. IMO the two core businesses (POC and Central Labs) should still deliver FY 2022 revenue in the region of £41/42m; with Life Sciences about £4m. Expect to see a further H2 drop in Contact Manufacturing - possibly in the region £10-12m; with Lab testing reaching £4m. With some minor add ons all in we should be in the region of £ 62/£64m give or take. EBITDA should hold steady - but PBT likely to be hit with exceptional costs. Still no idea who sold/bought tens of millions of shares a couple of weeks ago.....SB
Quite a bit of optimism being expressed here now. Market cap has now doubled from start of year. SB
Italian - the 1.6m delayed trade was made shortly after a 400k trade - both were trumped by a 1.9m (£1m) trade around noon. Look like purchases. SB
We do seem to pick them eh Vigneron. Different dynamic in each business - but both do feel like they are verging on being classified as typical AIM investments and as such come with a fair bit of risk. SRC's team seem to be more capable of executing its plan - but we are now in a position where we can no longer tap the capital markets and as such are now issuing highly dilutive share placings to continue the growth story. The senior management team are exceptionally well paid (look at the composition of the remuneration committee and the 125% annual bonus over base salary) and in total have 4.6m shares through purchases/placings v 25m shares under option via the 2021 LTIP. I will be very interested to see how the company's debt profile is being addressed and more specifically as you note what the company is doing to address shareholder returns. SB
For once it’s not just gravis - HICL, JLEN and INPP all down in last few weeks. 20% down from last year high despite a growing NAV. Armageddon aside there has to be a good chance this will stage a minor recovery soon. SB
Price was 61p a few weeks ago before market got wind of fund raising….raised £30m and wiped £45m off market value. SB
As previously noted, any corporate purchases are limited to the amount of money capable of being raised in cash or placings - although the disposal of non core businesses is also being utilised. This latest event highlights the operational focus from management which has been noted by others. What remains outstanding is any thought to investors - certainly in the short term - and a near 9% dilution to shares in circulation to purchase what appears to be a smattering of low value businesses, accepting they are being purchased on low multiples (wonder why). There is a real dichotomy developing here - stay in the hope management can somehow create some investor value; or accept they simply have no regard for such and are focused on their 2024 options which have a limited alignment to value creation. IMO - any fund raising should have been used to pay down some of our significant and expensive debt which would allow the establishment of some type of investor return from the resultant increase in free cash flow. SB
Flip flop….or something else really small….SB
I’ve been filling/averaging down for some time now donmac….what I’ve got left in the tank would be lucky to fill a flip flip :-) SB
Thanks for the update donmac - or non update as it happens!! There is more than a touch of irony with all the stocks you mention unhooked that they are performing so atrociously at a time when the FTSE is breaking record highs. The risk weighting being applied to the healthcare sector is such that many companies will simply be unable to raise capital for potentially game changing treatments for patients and health spending budgets / irrespective of the positive story. In such a toxic atmosphere lack of communication is perceived as badly as poor news - such as we have seen here and elsewhere recently. Good science and successful commercial thereafter seem to be moving away from each other - certainly for now. SB
This is getting to a point of no return - lack of any update whatsoever from the company has created a market with zero appetite to buy. What on earth is going on? SB