Member Info for Silverblade

Their holdings appear to be aggregated and include various nominee accounts - so probably one of their clients made a purchase into one of their funds. Are you still out Dartron? I’m not sure what my next move is here - might hold a while longer and see what happens over next 6/9 months - they are building up a decent cash pile and whilst I’m not a fan of buy backs at these prices they could take a fair chunk of shares out still reinstate a dividend end of year. SB

I made an effort to read the article - its only a few pages - and was written by academics at Mount Sinai who are clearly the 'tech' drivers. I wont claim to follow a lot of the detail....although as a layman its a pretty useful summary. It does highlight what has been achieved in a relatively short period of time - 7 years for Sinai; slightly less since Renalytix was formed as the JV vehicle with Sinai to take the product forward. As we have known for some time it is a unique AI driven diagnostic tool with a huge patient market; and the more you read the more compelling the investment proposition becomes. They just need to drive adoption - it almost seems bizarre it should be this way around - clinicians, health systems, insurers and government should be jumping at this level of patient risk analysis. I guess this is why articles like todays are important in getting the message out there. SB

Looks like the recent disposals have led to an increase in the volume of shares being purchased by the company; previous daily transactions were generally for sub 100k. Last four purchases were 300k; 250k; 500k, 425k. 21m now held in treasury. Capital markets day had some very useful insights into future strategy - and confirmed specifically which elements of the portfolio GCP intend to exit (Supported living and all equity positions in renewables). Disposals pipeline now up to £340m - although I'm guessing this is more to ensure the £150m minimum target can be achieved given state of market. Key focus is to repay the debt facility with accompanying interest savings and remove as many shares as cash position will allow. Still frustrating to be at the current NAV discount but it does appear the investment manager is working hard to move the dial here. Ex-divi tomorrow so expect a drop - although interest rate decision may help short term. SB

Probably not a huge surprise - CRH are looking to exit their entire position in SRC. Lock in expired some months ago. Might go some way to explaining the rather muted response to what was a pretty strong trading statement. Will be interesting to see what price they can get - 171m shares is a decent chunk to place. Overall - CRH have done well - good price for their lime business plus looking like a decent profit on their holding - 171m shares at 47.5p per share initial holding. Clearly - secondary placing price will effect short term here - so lets hope brokers can hold c.70p. After that - its back to business for SRC and getting that debt mountain down over next two years. SB

I think the main drag here Hawker - and I'm looking forward rather than in the rear mirror - is the one key factor which neither ekf or singer seems to address - and that is growth. The narrative focuses on reducing low margin, no profit lines with revenue reductions - improving margins but on a lower throughput. Alongside that needs to be a clear plan on where revenue growth will occur - and not random comments from C. Mills that they need new sales staff. Simply not good enough. I don't see a business that would attract any corporate interest at the moment - they would have to pay a premium based on core shareholder expectations for a business that is stagnating - and that's not where PE like to play. Reinstating an annual dividend should occur which might encourage new institutional interest - but fear is they go for buy backs to increase eps and hope company value responds positively. Quite a few decent sized trades today - not 100% sure if they are buys/sells. It does make you wonder exactly what the management team at ekf are trying to achieve. SB

....and a significant increase in daily buybacks - 1m shares (£1.1m+) in last two days. Perhaps we have reached the low point and INPP are looking to hoover up at this level - possibly before gilts reducing and possible interest rate cut provide some positive price reaction. SB

Thanks Dartron - I will check out hvpe. Hopefully should see ongoing movement here next week - before ex-dividend end of week. SB

Current buy back programme lasts up to end of Q1 2025 - and likely has in the region of £15m left out of the £60m allocation - so more than sufficient for current daily purchases. Lets see what happens after that. As an example of the complete valuation madness that exists here, INPP's largest holding is in Cadent - major UK gas distribution operator now looking to move into hydrogen as an alternative to natural gas. INPP own 7% of cadent, which represents 16% of the current portfolio valuation. Based on current NAV, that holding sits on the balance sheet at c.£450m. Based on current NAV discount it is valued at c.£340m. The market value is likely closer to £900m. It should also be noted that Cadent is currently in negotiations with offgem on its next 5 year pricing framework which is expected to come into force end of 2025 and will likely impact on valuation. There are other assets which have a similar valuation disconnect. Plenty of asset upside which don't appear using discounted cash flow valuation methodologies - which is why other funds are starting to be wound up to release capital. SB

Today was confirmation that capital will be returned via buy backs - following on from their December 2024 update " The method by which the Company will return £50 million of capital to shareholders remains under consideration. The Board continues to believe that the use of share repurchases is a means of addressing imbalances in supply and demand which may otherwise create volatility in the rating of the Company's shares." Although throughout 2024 there was a general feeling a more investor friendly mechanism would be used. I assume buy backs are being used as the scale will have a reasonable impact on eps, dividend cover etc. CDF should now be about £30m. Leaves a further £130m of potential disposals in the pipeline which are targeted to happen in H1 2025. Lets hope future disposals don't further erode NAV as this transaction which was sold at a discount to NAV - although as deals are likely to focus on supported living there could be more pain given the state of that sector. At least Blackcraigs deal in 2024 was at a premium. SB

Have to agree Dartron - ekf is going nowhere, and getting there very slowly. In the last 6 years the business has grown by c.2% pa - exclude covid earnings upside which management even managed to subsequently fluff. The key focus seems to be on increasing gross margin % rather that actual earnings - what's wrong with having a mix of high and low margin business streams if collectively they increase earnings. Instead we see both revenue and ebitda decline - even below low growth target estimates from the company's house broker. Good effort for reducing earnings and seeing this as positive - I mean wtaf. Revenue in H2 less than H1, less cash generated, and an insignificant increase in H2 ebitda. The more I read their brief statement the worse it gets - its the same treading water nonsense that's been rolled out for years now - earnings are now less than they were 6 years ago - and that's despite the meagre 2% growth pa. Tells us all we need to know. Little wonder no one is interested here. As for acquisitions - don't make me laugh when they cant even grow the core business and build a white elephant facility with no customers. SB

Depressingly familiar update from ekf. Despite previous assurances H2 would improve on H1 - it didn't - and this is taking into account the move away from 'low margin' business and cutting expenses. EBITDA hardly moved from 2023. And to top it all - talk of future internal investment and M+A activity - previous examples of which had disastrous consequences for shareholders over the last 3 years. No update on fermentation so assume its had no meaningful sales growth. No mention of dividend reinstatement just the dreaded buyback option which universally fails to deliver. Poor. Again. SB

Jatw

I hope that the share options relating to 2025 revenue are based on conservative targets - don't get me wrong they would still represent positive growth - but given where we are I would not like to see revenue guidance being missed with likely further pressure on share price/value. Underestimate, overachieve for now.

In relation to being included in the global test guidelines - one of the most important pieces of narrative came in the medicare LCD - which specifies "coverage for use of kidneyintelX.dkd for patients with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes and Stage 1-3b Chronic Kidney Disease is reasonable and necessary". This alone should prove a major catalyst in the US insurance market where impacted populations have effectively been advised the test is now a requirement to assess their medical needs. I also think this is where a lot of confidence is emerging from Baines - and historically McCullough.

And yes I would agree a 1% market penetration seems a low target - until you look at the numbers. 1% of 14m potential patients at $950 a test is $130m+, and there are the practicalities of ramping up to such a level of tests through renx laboratory capacity, number of physicians required to process, renx sales/operational staff to administer. The scale of the opportunity is massive.

One other major issue is still moving around in the background - the company is still progressing an application for National Coverage Determination to cover all of the US. That would be another game changer for the business.

Oogle - remember US shares are essentially still equal to two AIM listed UK shares - hence the price differential. And don't be sure Zurich have sold out completely - its just they are no longer required to report any holding under 5% according to AIM rules. I suspect they are still a reasonable holder. SB

The target is to achieve 1% US market penetration in 3/4 years oogle.......achieve that and its safe to say company value would be many multiple of where it is today (and where it was a few years ago!) SB

Typical buy on rumour , sell on fact reaction here. Useful update nonetheless - growth in Q2 represented a 40% increase over Q1 (although there was bit of catch up as Q1 was slightly behind target). Good to see key metrics being updated by the company - and it is clear the potential here is significant. If 142 doctors (plus a contribution from other health systems) can generate 800+ test sales in Q2 (revenue of $780K), and the company is able to successfully secure and integrate additional large scale practices (the latest 140 doctor New York practice appears to be progressing but presumably takes some time to get all doctors on stream) - then substantial growth could occur in a relatively short time frame. I expect this news will be better received in the US. SB

One year ago today on 23.01.24 INPP started its buyback programme. Since then it has purchased 36m shares - and in that period shares have slid from £1.30 to £1.13. Makes you wonder if BB's are really efficient in the current environment - not even coming close to providing a floor to the NAV discount. The shares originally floated in 2006 at £1. It seems quite incredible to think we are within touching distance of the issue price. Based on 2025 dividend, shares now close to yielding 7.4% - but when you take into account capital loss over period this remains a very challenging period for investors. SB

Unlike previous Nasdaq listing, AIM does not require quarterly updates so pretty sure we will only see two financial updates a year. SB

Company is reverting to semi annual reporting i.e. half year and full year as opposed to previous quarterly updates. Next update due mid February should see H1 2025 figures released. Based on Q1, we should be looking for a H1 revenue of c.$1.3m which would represent a 30% quarter by quarter increase - and if continued into H2 would see the $3.2m 2025 revenue target achievable. Same momentum is required for 2026 fiscal year $8.5m target. Equally as important will be the position on cash - balance sheet position and burn rate given the stated ambition to reach $725K cash burn per month or less by June 2025. Key metrics we can use to monitor progress. SB

Not sure where you get the idea I am upset Dyor7 or expecting a long wait for news - I was merely highlighting Christopher Mills did not discuss vrci (or Renx for that matter) during his 6 monthly update call with Paul Hill which was perhaps unusual due to previous commentary on the same update and the ongoing support Harwood has provided by way of funding, significant shareholding and board positions. If I was going to be upset it would be related to the poor valuations being applied to market leading bio-tech - but that's where the market is right now so you either accept it and wait for an upturn or move elsewhere. I'm ok to wait. I expect there will be commentary on one, or possibly both, vrci and renx in the next month or so. SB

Christopher Mills gave a generally upbeat view today on vox - historic issues now pretty much resolved post Julian Baines appointment, solid 2024, good $$ earnings, cash generative, £15m cash in bank, no debt, capex spend complete and continues to trade on a low earnings multiple. Only negative - sounds like south bend fermentation facility is taking time to gain customers - it has the ability to provide material growth but not there yet. He also highlighted the board are reviewing what to do with cash - they appear to be generating £10m+ per annum on top of existing £15m end of 2024. Sounds like dividend coming back as a minimum. SB

Not even a mention for Vrci on Vox markets interview - and Renx only got a passing comment linked to Julian Baines recent appointment. I guess there's not a lot to report here until the LCD update - which could be weeks or months away - delays may be linked to incoming US administration. SB