Member Info for Silverblade

I don’t think Vrci is for sale - but let’s be honest it has been caught in the crosshairs of a very damaging period for AIM and FTSE 250 investors in particular. There is clear value in the business - but there are much larger and profitable company’s taking a hiding in the market so what chance emerging innovators like Vrci at present. No need to panic though - fund raising last year at 9p seems good business now. Is mills on vox? He’s a cagey type though - and has always been here for the long term. SB

Looks like there is a clear reason for this selling - and likely more to come. The shares were held in the £100m Amati AIM VCT. Following a strategic review - the board of Amati AIM VCT has recently terminated its fund management contract with Amati Global Investors - who will continue to act as fund manager for Amati AIM VCT for the duration of its notice period, which is twelve months. The reasons driving this decision are linked to the performance of AIM, declining fund NAV, impact of October budget and the implied poor performance of Amati Global Investors as fund manager. Amati AIM VCT still holds 13m shares. A new manager will be appointed for the fund who may well combine this fund into a larger holding. No doubt similar issues throughout AIM funds and their managers. SB

Very painful times to say the least. More than £600m in lost asset value here - despite assets being sold at or close to market value to demonstrate robust NAV calculations. Not that any of that matters in the current global panic as bonds become the new sub-prime, CDO, libor etc financial mess. SB

Good to see a bit of activity here - certainly showing signs of life that were non existent end of 2024. Few points to note bearing in mind the various share price discussions here recently. Firstly, although the company first raised funds at 20p in 2020, the company had existing pre-ipo investors who provided funding after it was spun out of Renalytix but prior to its fund raising. These pre-ipo funds were then converted into shares as part of ipo - at a lesser price - primarily Mount Sinai, Harwood and Renalytix. These three entities - acting in concert - own 29% of the company and are essentially in control of its future, recognising recent institutional interest II has increased. Bear in mind the patents and technology licences are all through Mount Sinai. The company achieved a peak market cap of £70m; which after various fundraises and new share capital would equate to a share price of c.30p now. All fund raising has also been done with the benefit of EIS tax relief - so for example the recent 9p placing would only cost investors c.6p assuming they achieve the three year holding period and within the tax year allowance thresholds - and same pro-rata for the 20p and 35p placings. Hence Octopus and Unicorn et al are now here alongside Sinai, Harwood etc. They will be looking for multiples on their investment. My point being - as PI's we generally only see shares as trading opportunities - but in reality there is usually a much bigger picture being played out which we should be more aware of when making investment decisions. As for operational progress.....lets hope for an update soon. SB

Great trade Dartron - well done. And to others who took a recent position and longer term holders also (I’ve been here for some years….although not a big position). We’ve also got EKF and GCP in common - not exactly setting the world on fire but I can only see both improving through 2025. SB

I think any offer still had to have some level of credibility; and current updated offers are a 'premium' to share price over last couple of months since the shinez update. Kestrels non-exec position would still need to recognise other large holders who want a cash exit. Kestrel are probably ambivalent to price (for now) as they will roll their equity position. Exiting shareholders in IQGeo probably drive a higher price imo from a better position of strength - working with Kestrel to secure the offer from KKR. Maybe its all just coincidence and I'm jaundiced by AIM behaviours....SB

I think the way the deal/offers are structured has got kestrels hands all over it - funny that both bidders have same price after 'initial approaches' (suggest company was informally put up for sale by Kestrel) were too low and presumably not acceptable to shareholders who want cash option and both bids have a 'kestrel friendly' equity alternative. Also interesting that company withheld these initial approaches from the market. AIM eh....SB

This might explain what's actually going on here and the 'low' price......

From RNS " Each proposal is for 125 pence per Team Internet share in cash with an option for Team Internet shareholders to elect for an unlisted equity alternative in respect of Team Internet shares."

From Kestrel Web Site - October 2024 " As IQGeo’s largest shareholder, Kestrel’s support for the Take Private was critical to the successful outcome of the £333m transaction. We will retain a c.25% holding in IQGeo and Max Royde, Kestrel’s CEO, remains a Board member. Together with KKR and the IQGeo management team, we are looking forward to IQGeo’s next phase of growth.

“As IQGeo’s largest shareholder over more than eight years, and a Board member, we’ve been instrumental in shaping the company into a highly successful business. It was clear to us that a Take Private would be the best outcome for all IQGeo’s stakeholders. We worked closely with the IQGeo Board and KKR to secure a fair offer price and ensured that all shareholders had the option to roll into the private entity,” explains Max Royde, CEO of Kestrel.

SB

Kestrel have 27% of shares - and have been buying for many, many years...securing the bulk of their holding sub £1 - and a chunk when the share price was c.50P or less. They (or more specifically Max Royde) will clearly be pivotal to any deal here and the price. Bear in mind Max is director and will be party to all current conversations. SB

Its certainly going to be an interesting few months ahead for VRCI (Medicare and operational updates due); RENX (Q2 2025 revenue/H1 2025); and EKF (Full year TU). I have gone against all my principles and have been buying at lows (or pretty close) on all three in the belief there are better times ahead - first two have sufficient funding for 12 months and appear to be making traction in commercialisation activities and EKF is starting to generate some decent fee cash flow and imo is likely to reinstate dividend by end of year (or possibly earlier). Its only money eh :-) SB

Way to go oldbut!! Interesting year ahead for the infra sector - at some point surely we will start to see NAV discounts decrease - and possible asset realisations alongside buyback programmes - and who knows - potentially some actual investment activity..... SB

Agree Hawker - there are some major catalysts which will help progress here. The revenue and EBITDA projections highlighted on vox markets at the time of the delay announcement were very encouraging " Singer Capital Markets are forecasting sales to climb to $4.0m (vs $1.0m LY) & $11.6m respectively for this year & next, with adjusted EBITDA coming in at $0.4m for 2025 (-$5.3m FY24) & net cash closing Dec’25 at $0.6m." 2025 revenue presumably includes some of the delayed tutivia revenue from 2024 but even so this would be a great performance. A lot to look forward to here. SB

Incentive plans are always an emotive subject unhooked - it was clear from the AGM voting that certain major investors were not happy with the proposals. That said - the existing plan was no longer practical and a replacement was required - and although the threshold targets appear low they are cost options at 10p (as opposed to no cost); represent a medium term doubling of the current market cap to achieve full vesting and delivering significant test volume growth of circa 20% per quarter in 2025. If these conditions are met then it will signal a significant move forward and should be the start of major rerate imo - alongside other corporate news such as onboarding further primary health systems. HNY. SB

Will be interesting to see if we get a trading update in early 2025 - and whether we get any indication of (1) how many test sales of Clarava have been made by Thermo (and what % royalties VRCI is due); and (2) the volume of Tutiva sales which have been made albeit revenue cannot be recognised yet. We can then start to see what levels of adoption are being made and start to look into 25/26. H2 2024 in general should have been ok with the second Clarava milestone payment from Thermo - although cash burn will be higher than expected due to FDA delay - or at least lets just hope its a delay! Assuming FDA is secured this year, then a £5m company valuation appears bizarre - but lots of examples of similar positions in AIM and elsewhere. In the meantime - if you are brave enough - current share price seems an attractive risk v potential return. SB

Fergus Fleming picked up a further 25K shares on Friday to add to the 80K he picked up as part of the placing. Now holds just under 700K shares (Latest RNS appears to have missed out his placing purchase). This adds to the recent market purchases made by James McCullough, Julian Baines, Catherine Coste, Howard Doran and Chris Scott. Whilst the purchases are all small, in combination they represent the first time I can remember coordinated stock purchases by company directors. I have added to my position here and am starting to feel more optimistic about 2025 than I have for while. ATB to all who regularly post here. SB

Current level of buybacks are like putting a finger in the dyke. £360m+ lost in asset value. Claims of capital preservation aim by the company seem rather wide of the mark. Little wonder sister company GABI is being wound up after suffering similar loss of shareholder value/confidence in gravis. SB

I don't recall the company making an AGM statement before - and following on from the JB interview on vox this would appear to be another positive market led communication. Particularly like the electronic health integration model which points doctors to eligible patients and reference to ongoing director purchases. Based on Q1 2025 revenue (c.$500K), each prescribing doctor (125 in total) was prescribing (roughly) 4 tests per quarter (500 tests give or take). There are now 300 doctors in Q2, so if similar sales ratios are being achieved (statement refers to record levels) then it is possible to see why JB is in positive update mode. Onboarding large scale primary care practices appears key here - and clearly any momentum should translate into significantly increasing test volumes. Lets see Q2 results in Feb to see if we can glean any more data to support growth model. SB

Within touching distance of this years share price low. Even a little bit of director buying not enough to stop the purge. Still Xmas bonus time at gravis should help them over this difficult period for investors…..SB

Wondered where you had gone Tricky! Yes JB interview was very upbeat - and that is not his usual repertoire. He has also purchased £160k shares as part of the placing and more recently director purchases alongside other directors. It does look like the key to unlocking the sales stream is to onboard health systems with large numbers of prescribing doctors - so those milestones are ones to watch. Medicare 'reasonable and necessary' coverage will be central to the commercial pitch. SB

Its been a pretty good year for SRC ingy - accepting the last month has taken a bit of shine off the share performance. This coincides with an expectation that interest rates will not fall as quickly as previously thought (budget, inflation, wages growth, gilts, bonds etc) and any business with a large debt exposure will be hit in current market - and although euribor rates are falling there are fixed leverage linked margins - hence the focus to get debt down. Growth has also seen some headwinds as euro economies struggle - revenue in certain markets declined albeit marginally but margin growth is strong. On paper, a business with a £1b+ revenue stream, £220M EBITDA and a leading market position would seem highly attractive based on its current valuation - but debt reduction will be the real catalyst for a medium term re-rate imo. SB