Member Info for Silverblade

Low volume, high impact selling. That's what happens when you set milestones and miss them - retail investors get spooked and move on and price gets demolished. The fall from grace mirrors everything in the Harwood Bio-Tech stable - ekf, renalytix, trellus - disaster after disaster for investors. Early stage bio-tech comes with huge risks - share price was 70p three years ago and a market cap 4 times where we are today. That said - vrci has achieved a lot in its three years, retains a core II investor base (70%) who pumped more money in earlier this year, has a strong partnership with Thermo, has funding through to 2026 and is potentially looking to secure a major insurance (LCD) position next year. But until then - its a horror show. SB

In many ways I'm surprised the share price is holding up as well as it has bearing in mind another 140m shares were issued last month - and the market cap has remained c. £25m which is higher than it has been for a while (how depressing is that). Plus the wider market is just nuts at the moment - its beginning to look like the new government is reverting to type and that's not good. Now that Baines is in post it will be interesting to see how the company approaches its Q1 trading update - bit later than last year but still expect to hear by end of November. SB

Oldbut - every time I think the price has reached a bottom we get reminded that the entire infra sector is no longer the 'safe haven' of the past. The core business appears stable - but the ongoing volatility and asset discounting makes you wonder if these stocks will ever return to a more normal trading position. And I agree on your sector consolidation point - and note there are plenty of deep $$ pockets out there who must see value at these levels. In the meantime - painful holding but not going anywhere. SB

In the absence of a contrary view from GCP when it released its recent dividend/NAV update then yes the timetable was to make the capital return in 2024. SB

Certainly wasn't my intent to make it sound that way contrarian - but I was trying to provide some evidence that the price movement here doesn't align with the fundamentals in terms of shareholder distributions. I do agree the preservation of capital is an important attribute in an asset based sector - and on that basis GCP is failing. Typically investors in this area are looking for income - and the current annual return is more than decent as interest rates start to decline. GCP has always traded at a higher discount than its larger sized peer group (INPP, HICL) - reflecting a view its portfolio has more exposure to riskier market sectors (social housing, equity, electricity prices) versus its less risky assets (PFI). What is clear is that GCP is due to pay out 12.75p per share (7p dividend, 5.75p capital return) over the next 12 months - and that's good enough for me for now. SB

Never mind the 9.5% look ahead yield; there’s an 8% return available pre Xmas based on the current price via the capital return. But I do understand the point on capital depreciation - it’s just way OTT based on last NAV. Some pretty dark outlooks being priced into markets - especially AIM. SB

Make of this what you will Dartron from RENX.....Mr Baines looks like he has his hands full. I agree the share price is a disaster but the indicators are EKF is moving in the right direction. SB

" The Board are pleased to announce the appointment of Julian Baines MBE as Executive Chairman to the Company, to be effective from the General Meeting and subject to contract and completion of regulatory due diligence. Julian was the Non-Executive Chairman of the Company from March 2018 to June 2020. Christopher Mills, currently Non-Executive Chairman, intends to remain as a Non-Executive Director following Julian's appointment.

Julian has significant experience in the life science industry and was the CEO of EKF Diagnostics Holdings Plc ("EKF") and BBI Holdings plc. Julian rejoined the executive team at EKF as Executive Chairman on a short-term basis in February 2023. Julian is also currently Non-Executive Chairman of Verici Dx plc. Before joining EKF, he undertook a management buyout at BBI in 2000, a flotation on AIM in 2004 and was responsible for selling the business to Alere Inc. (now part of Abbott Laboratories) in 2008 for c. £85 million."

CVI were the original investor which sat behind the $21m convertible bond issued in 2022. They have been collecting interest and largely converting that into shares for the last couple of years under the bonds terms - building up a substantial holding. They were selling earlier in the year but have stopped for now. The recent fundraising saw the remainder ($8.7m) of CVI's convertible bond restructured with the issue of shares for part of the loan and new terms for the remainder - which seems to have removed their ability to convert quarterly interest payments into shares imo. Thus CVI now hold c.10% of the business. This was all part of a fairly large scale attempt to address previous funding arrangements and cash burn - and possibly one of the reasons with James Sterling is no longer with RENX. It would be reasonable to assume CVI (plus Ruffer, Unicorn, Penwater etc) have a degree of confidence in the revised business plan RENX is now operating to. SB

I can't see them reinstating the annual dividend payment until this time next year - its usually paid in December. Given that Julian Baines is now overseeing recovery at RENX, it would appear that investors are confident the mess over the last few years here is over. It would be reasonable to assume the company will have a decent H2 based on previous management commentary; with 2025 seeing real growth from a 2024 base. The cash position in 12 months time could be considerable based on current cash flow - certainly in excess of £20m and likely higher - with a growing high margin business, a low cost base and the full benefits of capital investment yet to come. I think we have reason to be optimistic here. SB

Baines never wanted to go back to EKF in an executive capacity after his 2020 super bonus - but I suspect there was pressure from Harwood/Mills to go back and sort out the mess the company had got itself into post covid. It does look like EKF is moving in the right direction now although still plenty of hard work ahead to regain investor appetite. I suspect a similar line of logic has been made for his re-entry here. Baines as the business turnaround saviour and Mills looking after investor interests. And lets not forget RENX, Trellus and Vericidx are all spin outs from EKF and as such were all part of a diagnostics stable which was under Baines leadership. Its been torture for most investors in those companies - but perhaps 2025 will see the emergence of some value in each business as they progress their commercial futures. SB

I was thinking that your trade on the 31st ToD was a good move.....still makes sense but ongoing purge here is becoming rather painful. The often discussed capital return is now less than 50% of the loss from the recent high of 85p per share. A combination of market forces and poor timing of the NAV decline announcement coupled with fears over what assets will be sold and for what in a distressed market are hammering GCP's already fragile investors. Nearing a 10% yield again. Surely it cant fall much further....lets hope for an update in next few weeks. SB

Not exactly large scale investments for Ruffer, Unicorn, Penwater et al - but given recent history their involvement is an indication that the commercial phase of the business is being supported by existing and new investors - and that the business plan risk/return appears attractive. Add to that the addition of Julian Baines as exec chairman to oversee execution of the plan and likely part of the sell to new investors (RENX was spun out of EKF Diagnostics on his watch) then the mood in the room starts to look a bit more positive. 2024 revenue was $2.3m ($2.1m test sales = about 2200 annual tests). Business plan target looking at c.$3.2m sales for 2025 - about 3400 tests - with Q1 (July - Sept 2024) results due next week. Based on quarter by quarter growth targets we should be looking at $600k revenue for the first quarter with evidence the cost cutting is on track. SB

Spurley - its a mechanism company's use to return capital which benefits both them and investors as opposed to a one off 'special dividend' of 5.75p per share (£50m capital return / 867m shares in issue). In a share redemption scenario the company would offer to purchase shares worth £50m from investors at a premium to the current share price (in some cases in can be compulsory) - and in GCP case they may elect to purchase shares at the current NAV of £1.05 - meaning 47.6m shares would be purchased at a decent premium to the current share price whilst removing a chunk of shares from those in circulation and increasing eps going forward. Of course this is just an example of what may happen and conjecture on my part until we hear from the team on how the £50m will be distributed. SB

I did not anticipate any announcement on the capital return today - that will be a separate RNS as and when the capital is available for distribution - which I would expect to be in the form of a share redemption at NAV as opposed to a dividend and still by end of 2024. I agree the wording in todays RNS is clumsy - the inference is public knowledge of internal changes made to achieve the current NAV of £1.05 per share would somehow impact on asset sale negotiations. I would give the buyers a bit more credibility than that. What is positive is that the company looks well advanced in its sales process - which as far as we have been led to believe focuses on riskier areas of the portfolio - specifically social housing and investments carrying equity exposure (which cover lots of sectors). We can expect somewhere in the region of £120m asset sales - which would pay off all debt (£45m net), return £50m to shareholders, and still leave funds for future investment. I get the idea they will try and sell this as a portfolio risk cleansing operation with the remaining assets of higher quality to try and reduce the current NAV discount. We should also bear in mind that assets may be sold under current valuations; although as interest rates come down the discount rate being applied to cash flows should start to ease to counter negative NAV adjustments. My tuppence worth anyway. SB

The timing of VRCI's LCD delay RNS could not have been worse given the market fear already being promoted by the media in relation to AIM investments tax relief, CGT, IHT in the upcoming budget. VRCI is not alone in its current slump. I agree with Hawker in relation to the share price being used as a measure of current value - its just a trading mechanism - the real issue here is what is VRCI actually worth. The current market value is c£8m. Now you could argue that is excessive give the company remains loss making and currently has no way to recognise revenue it secures from sales of its diagnostic tests. Alternatively - and lets assume this is why major investors like Unicorn and Octopus took major position in February this year - the business is close to securing a major piece of reimbursement legislation in the US having already agreed a pricing structure. Even a 10% market penetration per annum would generate tens of $millions in revenue with a low cost overhead structure. I assume its that potential which has encouraged major institutional investors to provide access to growth capital and who remain invested. Being invested in early stage life sciences has been a disaster for most over the last five years (apart from covid bubble) - and yes 01234 its been an area where its easy to lose - although to suggest we have money to lose is rather disingenuous. Have some of us got it wrong here over the last 2 years - then the answer would have to be yes. The key is whether you believe VRCI has enough investor support, product offering, regulatory and reimbursement approvals, commercial acumen, business critical infrastructure, market opportunity, patents, partnerships and pipeline; - in which case there is the potential for a viable and profitable business with a unique market position, accepting that remains 12/24 months away. SB

Once you lose faith in a company and don't see a reason to maintain an investor interest then its right to move on 01234. I don't believe what I posted was in the waffle category and I certainly did not sell any shares today if that's what you are insinuating. I agree AIM is a difficult market and there could be issues resulting from the budget in two weeks - but I am sticking with VRCI for now. SB

Reflecting on last weeks RNS I'm inclined to view a positive outlook here. Yes its frustrating that the post transplant (Tutivia) LCD requires further data to secure approval but those of us who follow similar approvals processes in the US should not be surprised at such an occurrence. Based on information released to the market via VRCI's broker - Singer Capital - it would appear that $2.6m in revenue has been secured in 2024 which can only be recognised as revenue on the receipt of an LCD now anticipated for 2025 - so that revenue now pushed into next year. This would indicate 1000 tests have been sold out of a 100,000 patient per annum annual transplant market. The company's pre-transplant deal (Clarava) with Thermo Fisher shows the quality of its diagnostic suite; and all licensing milestones have now been met with the test launched into the US market in July this year meaning additional cash flow into the business in H2 2024 (a total of $5m licence cash in 2024) - with follow on royalties as the test is utilised by Thermo (65,000 patient annual target market). The fundraise earlier this year looks to have been well timed and provides headroom until both test volume ramps up and LCD determination allows revenue recognition. Revenue targets for 2025 ($11.6m) look very encouraging. SB

ToD - a historic 75p average here is pretty decent (I am low 80’s) but 45p - really??! SB

Interesting feedback all. It does look like money markets are pricing in something hitting the fan end of month - the risk adjusted income margin here v 5% bonds is now over 4% - which is way OTT given the stated intention of the company to pay off all debt and reduce its exposure to riskier equity investments. GCP still remains at the higher end of valuation discounts despite the prudence its investment manager has demonstrated in GABI. I wondered if the fixed income issue is something which requires addressing - introducing some inflation linked uplift rather than the fixed 7p annual dividend. I'm continuing to buy at these levels - 12 months time we should be in a better place if base rate gets close to 3.5% next year. Of course there are those minor issues in the background......current fiscal policy, budget, Trump, Ukraine, middle east.....who would be an investor eh! SB

Looks like Harwood will hold 4.4% following the second placing shares hitting the market in early Nov - way below their historic 14% holding. All current directors participated in the fundraise - plus incoming exec chairman Baines picked up 1.1m. Should get Q1 2025 numbers in mid November. SB