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Ahead of this weeks earning announcement I was also wondering what to expect.....and was running through some of the recently issued RNS's to see if I could gauge what will come out over and above the usual quarterly loss! One which took my notice again was the appointment of Howard Doran to President which came as a bit of a surprise - although possibly encouraging as he is in charge of global sales - time will tell. What was more interesting was his past - and specifically his time as President and CEO at Liposcience which was purchased in 2014 by Labcorp - " Labcorp (NYSE: LH) is a global leader of innovative and comprehensive laboratory services that helps doctors, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, researchers and patients make clear and confident decisions. We provide insights and advance science to improve health and improve lives through our unparalleled diagnostics and drug development laboratory capabilities. The company's more than 67,000 employees serve clients in over 100 countries, worked on over 84% of the new drugs approved by the FDA in 2023 and performed more than 600 million tests for patients around the world.". Possibly - is this the 'large and well-capitalised publicly listed strategic diagnostics company' looking at Renx - and is Howard Doran there to seal the deal based on his prior experience? SB

Despite the low share price and overall valuation, history shows Renx can move very quickly on positive news and momentum. There are a number of positive indicators which will help in that regard - aside from the formal sale process itself which may or may not result in an acceptable offer. For me - the recent promotion of Howard Doran presumably comes on the back of positive progress on the test sales effort which he is leading; the recent placing was oversubscribed and provides funding to the end of this year; DB Capital jumped on the funding bandwagon at a higher price than the placing; there is a reasonable chance that LCD will be achieved for Medicare beneficiaries; Armistice Capital have been reducing their short position; Renx are looking into diabetes and cardiovascular risk assessments in addition to ckd; and KDIGO inclusion is a globally recognised care standard. Some of these points were referred to in the recent message from capcomm courtesy of A147lek93 - good post. I have added to my holding here this morning - averaging down trickymatters......! SB

No worries Trickymatters. Goodness knows where the share price would be if the company was in debt and paying interest rates, sonia plus margin etc. They are cutting costs which is good - but you do have to ask why they left it to the brink - although whenever the company has required finance it has always been able to fund raise. The problem is that the bio-tech/diagnostics bull market has left the building....and with it a lot of confidence in the sector. As a rough guide to what shareholders would expect as a return - Renx has raised somewhere in the region of £160m in the last six years which has covered the overhead/loss to get it to where it is today. So I think that would be the starting point for a discussion on a sale. After that - its all about market potential - and as you point out the ckd drugs market is a multi billion dollar business. IF the company is sold - someone else needs to absorb losses for a while yet until there is sufficient commercial traction to start making a return - but the long term prize could be significant. ATB. SB

CVI/Heights Capital appear to be increasing the scale of their selling - both in US ADS and UK AIM. In a limited buyers market this is clearly having a negative impact on pricing and the largish (10%) daily swings. They are able to offset these sales through new shares being issued under their bond at the current rate of 4m per quarter - price dependent. SB

Its difficult to make any kind of prediction as to what a purchaser would pay in terms of the share price. Its more about what is the company actually worth. As it stands.....its £30m based on 150m+ shares in circulation. There are lots of options which could take the total share count to c.200m. In that dilution scenario, if a purchaser was willing to pay £200m, than it works back to £1 per share. Question is - does £200m come close to current shareholders expectations? Would they accept less hence the recent fundraise to both provide working capital and lower average prices for the majority of major holders. Or is £200m too low for a company with Renx's potential - albeit its still losing a lot of cash each quarter. Trickymatters - you have mentioned the company's debt position a number of times - do you know something I don't? As far as I am aware the company has no debt - and is probably sitting on about $10m+ of cash at the moment post placing and DB capital funds. SB

Its now 60m new shares in the last six months - and yes that dilution is significant. On the plus side - the company is now valued more than twice (£27m) what is was two months ago (£10m) ....when it hit 10p a share. Wonder what the lads at DB capital are thinking of their $1.5m investment less than a month ago which is now worth just over $1m. Perhaps they know something we don't......SB

Perhaps Trickymatters.....conversely, any announcement the sale process is off, then this tanks even more if that's possible - its penny share time. I have been invested here for some time.......and its only relatively recently that 'LCD' has become the 'must have'.....after everything else has failed to materialise sales. SB

Trickymatters - I don't disagree with your observations on the ckd market and that the LCD is an important - and possibly final - milestone in the company's approach to insurance coverage. That said - lets not forget the significant real world evidence programme which has allowed the establishment of significant partnership agreements in the US with numerous health systems, health care plan insurance coverage covering tens of millions of lives, the Veterans Health system roll out, KDIGO inclusion, middle east distribution agreements, sales partnership with Eversana, presence at all major kidney led conferences, access to hundreds of thousands of GP physicians in thousands of hospitals, and its latest 10 year government acquisition contract for early stage kidney disease testing. And the sum total of that is selling a few hundred tests at month with an overhead that is still nuking the business. Perhaps now you can understand my scepticism. But I live in hope - if this company was fulfilling its potential it would be a billion dollar business. And £2 is after averaging down......SB

I wish I could be a bit more encouraging unhooked but I'm struggling to see where this is going at present. The bond has a coupon of 5.5% payable quarterly - a decent deal at the time, and even better as interest rates spiked last year. The bond holder can be paid in cash or ADS shares - the ADS shares pricing are based on a weighted average over the last 10 days trading. They still have $13m on loan to April 2027 and are converting 3-4m shares per quarter based on current share price - so it looks like interest and capital repayments are being issued in ADS shares. The bond holder took up 750k new shares at 20p placing - and has sold roughly same amount from its overall holding in last few weeks at higher prices. Glad to hear you managed some trading profits. My average here is about £2....pretty grim!! SB

Its all a bit bizarre unhooked. Its now two months since the company announced it had ben approached for a potential sale, and we await an update in that regard. In the meantime, they raised $12m from a placing at 20p and a further $1.5m at 30p from DB Capital which in itself was a mysterious given there was no immediate requirement for additional funding. The convertible bond holder has been busy collecting its quarterly interest as shares and selling at the same time as participating in the $12m fundraise. Just at the point where it looks like the company may be sold, its president Tom McLain since inception is leaving to be replaced by newbie Howard Doran who has apparently built a 'sales team from individuals with leading industry sales track records', despite there being no evidence whatsoever that the company is actually selling any more tests. The company's peak valuation was £1b; and we are now hovering around the £30m mark. Given the scale of the opportunity - what is the company actually worth given its current significant loss making model? The only chance of a sale being made needs to have the support of the majority shareholders given they control c.80% of the business. More than 60m new shares have been issued in the last six months - mostly to existing shareholders. I have no idea where this will end up, although like others here I'm hoping for an exit at a decent price - but I have no confidence that is achievable given that would mean a price multiples of where we are today. SB

Good day all round 01234….let’s hope Sara is spending the fund raising wisely and gives us an update in the summer on progress. Thanks for posting!! SB

In just under a year, GCP has reduced its revolver debt by over £100m - mostly though two transactions involving a major refinancing and an asset sale above book value. It would appear likely they will continue to pursue value added portfolio transactions throughout this year culminating in an enhanced return to shareholders. Add this to the current NAV discount and 10% dividend there could be a decent period ahead. SB

Most of them relate to CVI who are selling convertible bond issue shares at a higher price than they purchased in the rights issue. 156m shares now in circulation......never ending dilution. SB

We are due a number of updates in next two weeks - confirmation of agendas for the AGM and EGM; quarterly portfolio update; and quarterly dividend announcement. Looking at the latest GABI portfolio spreadsheet the company is due further loan repayments of £82m by June 2024; in addition to the current cash balance of c.£55m. There is a further loan of £20m due from Dec 2023 but I can't see if it has been repaid. Either way - there's a chunk of cash available for distribution late summer imo. SB

I think you are correct oldbut - its almost a deliberate play by Amber to use current market price conditions (bonds, gilts etc) as a reason to lower infra sector valuations - in the hope that once the sentiment improves later this year (or possibly 2025) then through their stewardship INPP will rise again! If I was being further cynical I might add that certain performance linked fund manager bonuses are linked to % fund NAV increases.....all the best with your alternative plays. SB

Mikodx - 100% agree that Renx has huge potential. That said - as we are all aware - the company has an FDA approved product (the regulatory bit); a US government approved cost model (the reimbursement bit); and goodness knows how many insurance/healthcare partners signed up who can access the test (the insurance bit). Despite this - there is little evidence that the clinical market is ready to purchase the tests, despite all the validation evidence available. Perhaps the medicare local coverage determination is the final piece in the jigsaw. In its defence the company has achieved a lot in a short time period; however its commercial and financial approach has appeared at odds with its positive healthcare journey. I do not assume a takeover at a decent price is a foregone conclusion; but given the potential there are pharmas/diagnostics who could view this as a bargain - even at multiples of its current valuation. On the subject of dilution - you are correct to note the company currently has c.124m shares in circulation. My estimate was based on the addition of the 26m second close funding placing shares which will be approved at the GM next week - gets you to 150m. Interesting to see if GB Capital take up their option at 30p by close of play tomorrow - if so that adds a further 8m. The convertible bond holder will continue to be paid in shares - currently 3.6m per quarter based on current share price. There are also a significant number of options available to directors, management and employees - exercisable at various values which will effect whether they are taken up - a further 37m in total. Lets hope we get some clarity soon on what's going on. SB

Its a strange position in the UK where the FTSE is continually testing the 8000 level and yet the majority of PI's seem to be having a difficult time. The constant flow of funds out of UK equities does not help - and there does not appear to be a safe haven unless you opt into managed funds, bond, gilts etc which do not really suit typical PI's. I have holdings in various 'profitable' companies and they are also way below in value terms; although they are debt free and not in need to development capital which is possibly the point the pharma boss is making. Another 3.6m shares yesterday to the account of our convertible bond holder - this constant dilution is not good - 95m shares to 150m in less than 6 months. SB

There are no easy answers here - that's the reality of being a private investor on AIM. I don't think its as simple as to whether DB are smart or dumb - its what is going on behind the scenes that led to this transaction which appears murky. Why are they being allowed to pick up 10% of the company for $4m when as it stands Renx does not need the funding - that's a larger holding than Harwood/Mills - and their 10% holding cost a lot more than $4m. The company has made it clear the formal sale process may or may not result in an acceptable offer - and if not the company will continue in its present form. In the event the company ran out of money with no more funding available then it could go private via a low ball offer from existing majority shareholders or even a pre pack administration. I don't think that will be the case given the recent take up of new shares from the equity placing. The company is essentially owned by 10 major shareholders and its management - who have shown that when funding is required they commit, albeit the recent 'strategic' interest no doubt helped matters. PI's probably account for less than 20% of the shares in circulation so we are all essentially bystanders. The growing II interest is what provides comfort that we won't end up being shafted as they would end up in a similar position - DB Capital included.

One final point - the securities purchase agreement RNS relating to DB Capital includes reference to the funding being used for 'commercial sales' and to 'provide enhanced optionality' during the sales process just to throw some further intrigue into the debate.....SB

Sorry - CVI Investment bond to date has been settled in shares, not cash....doh. SB

Yesterdays funding announcement came as a bit of a surprise, but is the latest in a series of what is now becoming a complicated shareholder/funding structure. Within the last month alone we had the equity placing to raise $10m at 20p a share (although at that time only $4m could be raised because of the nasdaq 20% restriction). So the placing was split into two - a first placing for 20m shares to raise $4m; and a second placing to raise a further $6m subject to a general meeting on 22nd April to deal with the Nasdaq listing issue. As it turns out, forward commitments to the second placing now mean a further $2m has been raised, taking the total under the equity placing to $12m. We know the take up was good amongst existing shareholders. Now, less than a month later, we are told that DB Capital Partners Healthcare are taking an initial 2.6m shares for $1m on nasdaq; with the option to increase for a further 8m shares at the same price (c.30p) to take them up to $4m. That's just under 9% of the business and would make them the 4th largest shareholder. The web site link for DB Capital looks like it was put together over the weekend; and good luck finding out any details on the 'founding partners'. How did this come about - did they try and get into the initial equity raise, miss out, and come back to be told told price was now 30p under a share purchase agreement? Who do they know that allowed this to take place. What drove the need to raise $4m so shortly after the $12m last month? Alongside this, anyone remember the $21m convertible bond fundraise in 2022 advised by Heights Capital. Turns out the fund behind this is a company called CVI Investments (channelling money for high net worths, trusts etc), based in the Cayman Islands, and represented by William Walmsley, Director who lives there. They now own 8.5m shares in Renx as a result of the company settling its annual interest coupon and capital repayments in cash. Its an intriguing picture to say the least given the current 'formal sale process' and I'm not entirely sure what to make of it all. SB