Member Info for Silverblade

Evening Dartron. Try this - although I had to register but perhaps that was for the live on the day option. https://www.graviscapital.com/webinars

Still dividend hunting eh - this is a good one to buy and hold imo. Especially if you've just paid off your mortgage :-D SB

I guess I'm just writing down the risks here as I see them Hawker - we all know PI's are the most likely to get shafted here if it goes down. Not that we are there - and perhaps there is a plan which will become apparent (new investors, rights issue, placing, debt, partnerships - lots of options) - but time is not on their side. $25m in the bank in June 2023. $8/9m net spend per quarter - takes us into Q3 2024 (Jan - March 2024) - although that is based on an estimated spend rate with the announced reductions and a sub $1m per quarter revenue. Could be grim on Tuesday without any significant announcement's. SB

I just managed to listen to the webinar and echo your comments ragged. Phil came across well and articulated in some detail the NAV issues and the remedies which GCP are undertaking to resolve - accepting the wider funding market is negatively impacting to a much larger degree than the business can fully resolve. It was interesting to hear that more clarity can be expected when the full year results are published in December. One area which could be explored imo would be linking the dividend to some form of inflation uplift - the current yield is fantastic - but time doesn't stand still. It was also interesting to hear the business articulating it is an equity holder in some of its projects rather than a 'lender' - I assume where they have triggered contractual step in rights on projects in distress or where risks were mounting and their expertise could be brought to bear. Well done on your timing deepjoy - plenty to look forward to in 2024 here. SB

So looks like M+G have been in serious offload mode in last few weeks - north of 30m shares sold into market which would go some way to explaining the recent declines here. Why they are selling shares in a business which is trading at an ebitda multiple of 3 is known only to them - and is perhaps more reflective of funds moving into cash positions to take advantage of current macro opportunities (interest rates, bonds, gilts etc). It does continue to remind the business that shareholders need a reason to remain invested here - and they cannot overlook the disconnect from SRC's peer group - where Breedon is trading on a PE multiple almost 2 times SRC. I also wonder if some PE teams are not having a look here - the upside would seem considerable if all is as we are being told. SB

One scenario which has not been discussed is to let the company go bankrupt early next year and the major shareholders effect a pre administration deal to buy the IP and business assets for a fraction of what they worth now - not that there is much value left in the business. A horrible scenario but cannot be discounted anymore. I’m pretty sure next weeks conference call will largely focus on short term survival - we already know Q1 revenue will be disappointing because the business is simply not able to issue billable invoices for a substantial portion of test sales. Has there been a material reduction in quarterly costs - with so little cash there needs to be clear evidence management are stripping back all costs and focused on sales - what on earth are the current sales team doing. SB

They are listed as C Mills because he is a director (chairman) - but it is the two Harwood funds who own the shares (NAS and Oryx) on behalf of investors.

There are a number of other smaller funds who hold positions - Randy Bartons pinnacle for instance - some of whom upped their stakes in the summer after FDA roadshow. They will be seriously p***d if this goes private. SB

Morning both. What a share!!! I am trying to convince myself to remain invested here - don’t get me wrong I would be selling at a huge loss but I’ve been in similar situations where I ended up with a few pence per share and there is the potential this is where we are headed here. I sold some a month ago and we have lost another 50% since then. I saw the team at the kidney convention and it was all smiles and high fives - but behind the scenes there is a looming reality which is now being priced into the business. We have to hope that the core shareholders remain supportive of the business and are prepared to put more capital into the business to keep it going. Q1 2024 numbers were covered previously - 1200 test sales I think - but not all were billable so poor revenue. Update end of this month? Possible shareholders are waiting for any evidence of an uptake before further commitments - or pushing the button on a fund raise. The option to take the operation private grows - and bring it back in a few years if/when revenue materialises - but that is disaster for PIs. Wish I could be more positive but it’s been downhill big time after the FDA high. SB

Just a point of clarification - the capital markets day is scheduled for 16 January 2024. GCP will be hosting a webinar on 3 November at 11:00am - day after latest BOE interest rate decision. We should have heard by then on timing for the next interim dividend. SB

Well spotted that JRC increased their position Hawker - still holds them at 8.8% due to increase in overall shares in circulation but at least it shows they are still interested here. Would be great to see some positive news on the Medicare determination - although for the time being it looks like market is waiting on funding being addressed before it decides on where to go next with valuation. SB

Dec dividend has not been announced yet - will be early next week - will go ex dividend about two weeks later - not next wed which is probably just a publication best guess from previous years. SB

That's probably not far off the mark Tagvil - a 9% yield seemed to be sensible with interest rates at 5% and a 4% premium for risk adjusted assets. But fair value in the current market has lost the plot - and shows no sign of any improvement in the near future. GCP have evidenced the prudent valuation principles in their portfolio with the recent biomass transactions and yet we are still approaching a 50% NAV discount and a 12% yield. I have been a buyer in the 90's, 80's, 70' and 60's based on the underlying strength of the assets (short term power price adjustments aside), managements conservative approach and the volume of loans which will be redeemed in the next three years to repay the RCF, continue buybacks, improve capital returns and make selective investments at higher rates of return where available. The markets will hopefully return to some degree of normality in 2024 and GCP should benefit from this in time - in the meantime - c.12% yield at current pricing seems too good to be true.....SB

In the absence of knowing any more than has been published I would wish Mr Scannell thanks for his assistance and support - don't forget he took part in last years fund raise and sunk c.£200k into Renx shares which are now worth c.£40k - irrespective of whether that is loose change in his account. He was on a very low fee for someone with his successful background - and his non-exec sales/operational role has now been replaced with a full time chief business officer as the business moves into its commercial phase. That said - there is a very uneasy feeling at present as we wait to hear what happens next - and whether the risks are fully priced in remain to be seen. Short positions have increased in the last few days. The wolves are out - the question is does Renx have any response to stop the current trajectory? SB

I’m trying to look forward here as the rear view mirror is too painful. The 25th site opening in October may be accompanied with some details on the commercial sales being signed up. I think baines will be very conservative for the foreseeable future - his credibility is now on the line as well as his legacy for his previous work at ekf. I suspect if it was up to him the dividend (£5.4m) would have been cancelled or reduced for 2023 - but the commitment was already there. Next year may be different - the company needs to rebuild its cash position and avoid any debt imo. Good news some cash is trickling out of Russia. Hopefully 2024 sees growth and stability return with a disciplined board. SB

Thanks for sharing that vig - perhaps max and his team will get closer to this issue when their share options kick in big time next year - although I suspect any awards based on share price performances will be difficult to achieve irrespective of wider industry contagion so it’s the 8p earnings which will matter most. Also agree on the pain for PIs - but in reality all investors are taking a beating here despite a growing business with a 20% ebitda - and it’s those major investors who need to put pressure on the board to align interests - or they will vote with their sell buttons. SB

Should hear from the team next week - NAV, dividend and full year report due. Will be interesting to see where GCP goes next following GABI and RM knock backs. All key valuation metrics now complete nonsense. Current market value £550m v net assets of £1B and third party valuation of £1.1B - and those valuations are relatively conservative based on what the company achieved on recent asset sales. Gravis appear overly punished as investment managers continue to reduce holdings and by doing so inflict losses on their investors. That said - there’s a lot of bad stuff happening in the world and some pain here needs to be taken in context. SB

Makes you wonder how the market would react to a poor update…..although looks like polar are reducing holdings which just continues downward pressure on the price. At least an acknowledgement that debt needs addressing was included - I would hope full year results in March 24 sets out a path to address shareholder returns. SB

Update is a little bit later than last year. I hope it’s not because there is some other news on further acquisitions - the business needs to focus on shareholder returns imo in an effort to create some meaningful interest in its valuation which is abysmal - accepting AIM is a full scale horror show. SB

Andypa - I think the reference to 'meaningful' reductions in quarterly burn rate aligns with your comment on cost cutting - although it probably got a bit lost in their results narrative. In relation to partnerships - whilst these are a good idea - renx will want to remain agnostic in an ideal world - although we are far from an ideal world at present. One of the issues which has been on my mind for a while is whether or not the core shareholders continue to support the business by way of fund raising. Each have put a considerable sum into renx - and all are way under water on their investments. Now that renx is moving into a commercial phase business - and certainly we have seen how this impacts on Sinai with the ending of the $6m testing contract, their willingness to invest further may have altered. The recent move to remove pre-emption rights for each major shareholder when issuing new shares (preferential rights for new share issue) was followed up with both Sinai and Jefferson drafting prospectuses invoking their 'piggyback' rights under the registration rights agreements signed in 2022 and 2023 in relation to the ordinary shares and ADS shares purchased by them at the time. This essentially means they are potentially offering for sale all 31.5m shares at the same time as renx undertakes its own fund raising - with those sums flowing back to Sinai and Jefferson. There is clearly a lot of work going on in the background preparing renx for its next move - and there is no certainty what I have highlighted above will progress - but the paperwork has been lodged in advance of what could be a major move and could have any number of outcomes. SB

Since floating on AIM in 2018 with a market cap of £65m Renx has raised c.£145m in 5 rounds of fund raising (including issuing a total of 55m new ordinary shares or ADS equivalents, a convertible bond to be repaid in 2027 and a private placement). Shares have been placed at various prices with a high of £5.37 in 2020 to a low of 90p earlier this year. As we know Sinai, Harwood and Polar have remained consistent holders with Jefferson joining as a major shareholder in 2023. Why is this important - well I just reviewed the S-3 Shelf Registration document with all supporting documentation including a draft sales prospectus which makes provision for the issue of new ordinary shares, debt and warrants up to a value of $200m in tranches (including reference to the shareholder consent received at the AGM to proceed with this). Sinai and Jefferson have specific rights in the S-3 with regards to protecting their current position (including requesting underwritten offers, pre-emption, piggyback type stuff). At the same time Renx in its full year results advised it was meaningfully reducing its quarterly cash burn rate for the remainder of 2024 (and presumably thereafter). This would appear to confirm Renx's core shareholders are preparing for a major fund raise and as part of this have 'instructed' the business to slimdown all non essential expenditure to increase the attraction of the company to non core shareholders. Probably explains the recent share price movements......SB

No problem unhooked - and these provisions were made specifically after the last $20m placement so it’s all available to be called upon. SB